How To Identify Fantasy Football Breakouts At Wide Receiver: Inside The Process

Since 2011, 30% of yearly WR1 performances (16-plus points per game) have come from players who had never accomplished the feat before. Over that same period, 38% of the WR2 performances (13.5 to 15.9 PPG) were first-timers. In the fantasy football industry, we often refer to these players as breakout wide receivers.

Fantasy football breakouts at wide receiver are significant because, hopefully, we don't have to pay a WR1 or WR2 price tag, which can provide us with substantial value in fantasy drafts. In recent years, the market has tightened around these players, shrinking and sometimes even erasing margins, which means we must be vigilant in our quest for identifying the proper breakout candidates to target.

Today, we are kicking off a series 100% dedicated to WR breakouts.

In this series, we will accomplish four things:

1. Identify when wide receivers are most likely to break out.
2. Analyze what types of receivers are most likely to break out.
3. Evaluate which 2025 Year 2 and Year 3 receivers meet the breakout criteria and offer upside from their average draft position (ADP).
4. Identify the late breakout WRs (Years 4 to 7) and contrast them with their ADP.

We will handle No. 1 and No. 2 in this piece, followed by two separate articles on No. 3 and No. 4.

When Are WRs Most Likely To Break Out?

Based on historical data, wide receivers reach their max potential in years two through five, with year two representing the most significant jump (opportunity for a breakout). We can see this by plotting the output for each year of experience versus career-best three-year output (prime production).

We can take this analysis one step further by breaking down when wide receivers break out to achieve their first WR1 or WR2 seasons. This data aligns with the experience curve data, but helps us understand how frequently WRs break out after Year 2.

Historically, players have notched their WR1 breakout by Year 3 68% of the time. Things slow down in Years 4 to 6, but we still see some breakouts before things grind to a near halt at Year 7.

For the WR2 breakouts, 76% come within the first three seasons. We then see a slowdown in Year 4, but a flurry of activity in Year 5—something we will discuss in more detail below.

Overall, this data suggests that we should prioritize our breakout focus on Years 1 through 3, which we will refer to as early breakouts. However, some interesting results occur in Years 4 through 6, which are worth investigating.

What Types Of WRs Are Most Likely To Break Out?

For this research, we will shift our focus to Year 2 and beyond moving forward. Rookies are extremely important—they are the third-best hit-rate bucket for WR1 breakouts and the second-best bucket for WR2 breakouts—but I have you covered with the Rookie Super Model.

My rookie rankings utilize the model to compare the 2025 class to previous years, providing hit rates for prospects. If that isn't enough, I have also run the rookie RBs and WRs through our ceiling-floor projection model so we can get a feel for their range of outcomes.

OK, now that we have that covered, it's time to take our analysis from step one and quantify the types of wide receivers that registered breakout seasons. One of the easiest ways to do that is by using best previous fantasy finish. While I love advanced statistics like yards per route run (YPRR), when it comes to predicting next year's fantasy output, previous-season fantasy PPG still ranks No. 1.

Correlation to next-season fantasy points since 2011 (minimum 250 routes):

• PPR PPG: 0.67
• YPRR: 0.60
• Target share: 0.60
• PFF Receiving Grade: 0.59

Don't worry, we will come back to some of these sweet data points later, but for now, let's see how things look when we add best previous fantasy finish. We will start with the WR1 breakouts.

Of the 45 post-rookie season WR1 breakouts, 34 (76%) came from receivers with a WR2 or WR3 season on their resume. Historically, after Year 3, we seldom see WR1 breakouts from best-season WR5s or worse.

If we isolate the early breakouts (Years 2 and 3), 20 of 28 (71%) came from pass catchers who had already notched a WR3 or better finish. 

The Year 4 stallout is interesting since we only saw four WR1 breakouts, and three came with additional context clues.

• Antonio Brown (2013): Had a WR2 and a WR3 finish on his resume, and Mike Wallace (21% target share) left for the Dolphins.
• Randall Cobb (2014): Had a Year 2 WR2 on his resume, but missed six games in Year 3, and Aaron Rodgers only played nine.
• Stefon Diggs (2018): Had two WR2 finishes on his resume, and the Vikings upgraded from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins.
• Jordy Nelson (2011): No previous indicators or big team changes—just a random WR1 breakout, who doesn't love that!?!?

Year 4 marks the territory where context begins to play a more significant role in WR1 breakouts. Here is what you need to know about WR1 breakouts from players after Year 3:

• 14 of 17 (82%) had a WR2 or WR3 finish (often multiple)
• 9 of 17 (53%) experienced significant offensive changes in the breakout year
• 3 of 17 (18%) experienced substantial offensive changes in the year before the breakout

Summary of players that experienced change after Year 4 (Brown and Diggs from above represent Year 4):

• Pierre Garcon (2013): Signed with the Commanders the season before to post his first WR3 season, collected a WR1 campaign the following year.
• Emmanuel Sanders (2014): Left the Steelers for the Broncos and Peyton Manning, where he took the place of Eric Decker, who left for the Jets.
• Jeremy Maclin (2014): DeSean Jackson (25% target share) left.
• Golden Tate (2014): Signed with the Lions and partnered with Matthew Stafford.
• Doug Baldwin (2015): Tate (24% target share) left the year before.
• Davante Adams (2018): Aaron Rodgers only played seven games the year before, plus Nelson left, and Cobb played only nine games.
• Adam Thielen (2018): The Vikings upgraded from Keenum to Cousins.
• Robert Woods: (2018): Signed with the Rams the season before to post his first WR2 season, moved to WR1 status in his second year with the team.
• Will Fuller V (2020): The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins (29% target share) to the Cardinals.
• DJ Moore (2023): Traded to the Bears.

We won't go as deep on the WR2 breakouts, but let's get a feel for the high-level trends. Some are similar to the WR1s while others differ.

Post-rookie season WR2 breakouts are slightly more consolidated to years two and three, with 32 of 46 (70%). The Year 2 breakouts alone represent 50% versus 31% for WR1 breakouts. While slow-start rookies face unfavorable WR1 breakout odds in Year 2, the shot at a WR2 breakout appears more attainable.

DeAndre Hopkins climbed from WR5 status as a rookie to a WR2 breakout in Year 2 before notching a WR1 breakout in Year 3.

That pattern extends across the entire sample, with 20 of 46 (43%) WR2 breakouts coming from a player with a WR5, WR6, or WR7+ previous best season. That number is far lower for WR1 breakouts at 11%.

Davante Adams and Tyler Lockett secured Year 3 and Year 4 WR2 breakouts, respectively, before eventually moving into WR1 breakout territory.

We observe similar trends to those of WR1 breakouts, with a stall in Year 4, followed by the emergence of new breakout pathways, particularly in Year 5.

In the following two articles, we will apply what we have learned and start identifying the WR breakout candidates for 2025.