Lineup Setting and Rankings 'Last Looks': Mac Jones, Kayshon Boutte and More

Like most folks, I need balance in my life.

I was sitting on the couch watching Cincinnati’s season opener against the Browns. The back-and-forth nature of the game likely took years off my life. Joe Burrow got pummeled by Myles Garrett. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were Week 1 busts. My hopes for a playoff run diminished with each snap. But throughout the week, I’ve looked to our rankings and projections (powered by Xfinity) for hope.

Our emotions come from what we see and our experiences. But someone else can interpret the same situation from their own perspective. Plus, what happens in one week doesn’t define a season. So, if you’ve been struggling with a start-sit decision or how to recover from a tough loss, let’s go over some of the news from the week and how the crew has been dealing with it to get you right for Sunday.

The Latest and... Greatest(?)

Of course, Friday wouldn’t be complete without some news to shake up the league.

Luckily, early-week reports already had Brock Purdy trending in this direction. His turf toe may keep him sidelined for multiple weeks. Mac Jones will take over for Purdy. And if you wanted an idea of what to expect from the former Jaguar and Patriot, Dwain and Freedman already have you covered.

Two things here, though. The first number you might look at is his rank: ’26.’ Jones is an immobile pocket passer with a depleted set of passing-game options. If you were looking to him as a streaming option, let’s look at other options! But the next numbers that caught my eye were the projected ‘211.1’ and ‘1.4.’

League-wide passing sat at an average of 231.3 yards. Seven starters didn’t complete a touchdown pass. Any data suggesting Jones can come off the bench and pilot a functional offense that can score points is music to my ears. Adam and Jorge laid out a similar case earlier this week.

“If he can feed Ricky Pearsall in their matchup against the Saints’ rebuilding defense, fantasy managers will be happy. Christian McCaffrey should easily see 20+ touches.”

If you have Christian McCaffrey, you can have some confidence in his production. The same logic would apply to Ricky Pearsall. 

But afterward? Things get tricky.

Jauan Jennings was back at practice yesterday, but an in-game aggravation to his shoulder injury is still possible. And it’s unclear if Jake Tonges will be the George Kittle replacement until the veteran returns. Regardless, it’s a positive sign to see a viable projection for the 49ers despite the personnel changes. Sure, facing the Saints helps. But Jones did showcase some level of competency, flinging the ball downfield to Brian Thomas Jr. in Jacksonville, which should stabilize our hopes for San Francisco. Anyway, we’ve still got some other...

Injury situations to monitor going into Sunday

• WRs
  • Drake London (shoulder)
  • Darnell Mooney (shoulder)
  • Chris Godwin (ankle)
  • Xavier Worthy (shoulder)
• TE
  • Brock Bowers (knee)
  • Dallas Goedert (knee)

Dallas Goedert’s potential absence should have anyone rostering A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith on alert. The Eagles’ TE missed three games in 2023, and the WR duo split the WR1 duties with 28.6% and 29.7% target rates. Goedert was out for seven games last season, and both had target shares over 30.0% (33.6% and 32.2%). Brown already has a top-12 spot in our ranks, but I’m guessing Smith will get a bump by the time you’re reading this.

Quentin Johnston and Keenan whalloped the Chiefs’ secondary in Week 1. If we can get a condensed distribution of targets to the Eagles’ receivers, we’ll have two top-24 options on our hands.

The Weather Report

There’s an inherent problem with discussing the weather forecast before it actually happens.

It can change.

Take, for instance, the Jaguars’ game last week. It wasn’t on my (mental) radar coming into the weekend. The Patriots’ game had my focus with light rain projected in the area. Luckily, the conditions resulted in a delay.

A quick note on rain: Thunderstorms can force everyone to find shelter. It sounds simplistic, but we tend to lump all precipitation together. But there are differentiators, with one strong enough to postpone the game. I’ll typically delineate with this caveat: potential precipitation rates are a non-factor, provided lightning might keep the players out of the rain long enough for it to subside. But we shouldn’t have that issue this weekend.

As of this writing, the seven outdoor games are clear. However, if things shift, catch me on our live stream Sunday morning with Ian for a last-minute update.

I Hope Everyone Else is Right

I’m changing this section because I need some help here. And maybe I’m giving a voice to the people who had one of the first few slots in their draft. Anyway, I can’t bring myself to value Jahmyr Gibbs like a top-4 RB.

I’ll set his system issues aside for now. I mean, I care about the fact that the Lions’ offensive line turned in a bottom-10 run-blocking win rate. It’s actually more concerning than Gibbs generating only 19 yards. My main concern is the backfield split.

• Gibbs: 45.0% (rushing share), 26.3% (target share)
• Montgomery: 55.0%, 10.5%

David Montgomery still earned the lion’s share (get it? Because he plays for Det—never mind) of the carries. And I could make the case that Gibbs’ ten targets are a fluke. His season-high was seven in 2024. He hasn’t seen ten in a single game since ’23. And with Jared Goff dealing with pressure on 37.2% of his dropbacks, it's no wonder his passing aDOT dropped to 4.2, benefiting a short-area receiver like Gibbs.

But I’m open to being wrong. Gibbs could cosplay as 2024 De’Von Achane and rack up enough targets to maintain his value. However, if Goff gets more time to throw downfield and the run-blocking issues persist, we may have to adjust our expectations for Gibbs.

Going Against the Grain

I feel like a hipster at times. I’ll come across a player’s analytical profile, note him in an article, but the production doesn’t make him worthwhile. The sentiment exists in the ranks for the Patriots’ WR1.

Admittedly, calling Kayshon Boutte "Drake Maye’s WR1" might be a stretch. Technically, the third-year receiver did lead the team in targets. The gap between his targets and Stefon Diggs is irrelevant (one). Anyway, his usage should have our attention (77 UR Score). His matchup is even more intriguing.

Miami’s defensive front generated the third-lowest pressure rate against the Colts. The Dolphins’ secondary allowed the eighth-highest completion rate to WRs (68.8%). While we wanted to see more out of Maye in Week 1, facing the Dolphins will give him the time to operate and find his primary receivers. With Boutte already making the case for the top spot, he should be on our benches despite the WR4 rank for Week 2.