Predicting The Top 10 Picks In The 2026 NFL Draft
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog ...
Last night we witnessed an AWESOME game between the Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes.
Who cares?
I could spend 500 words talking about something that happened yesterday … or I could devote that space to something happening months from now.
That's right, baby: It's officially NFL DRAFT SZN!
I'm not one to brag, but …
For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.
With the College Football Playoff officially over, I've updated my mock draft.
Here are my top 10 picks, followed by a few notes.
To see the entire mock, check out the article, and for all of our draft coverage, see our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.
Top 10 Picks for the 2026 NFL Draft
- Raiders: Fernando Mendoza | QB | Indiana
- Jets: Arvell Reese | EDGE | Ohio State
- Cardinals: Rueben Bain | EDGE | Miami
- Titans: David Bailey | EDGE | Texas Tech
- Giants: Carnell Tate | WR | Ohio State
- Browns: Francis Mauigoa | OT | Miami
- Commanders: Caleb Downs | S | Ohio State
- Saints: Jordyn Tyson | WR | Arizona State
- Chiefs: Jeremiyah Love | RB | Notre Dame
- Bengals: Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn
Quarterbacks
This is not the class that was promised.
In my way-too-early May 2025 mock, I had five QBs in Round 1.
- Arch Manning (Texas): Staying in school one more year.
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Returning to school.
- Drew Allar (Penn State): Season-ending ankle injury has impacted draft stock.
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): Benched midseason after struggling with an abdominal injury.
- Cade Klubnik (Clemson): Regressed in final season (8.4 AY/A as junior, 7.6 as senior).
(And in early January, we learned Dante Moore was heading back to school).
This list is a reminder that no one knows anything. Not one of these guys is in my updated mock.
When we get to May and look back, I won't be surprised if we see just one QB in Round 1: Fernando Mendoza. (At least that's my early read right now.)
Check out my Mendoza scouting report.
Defensive Front Seven
This is the strength of the class.
Mendoza is all but a lock to go No. 1—but immediately after him, I have three straight EDGEs going off the board in Arvell Reese, Rueben Bain and David Bailey.
And after them, I have another three EDGEs (as well as three DTs and two LBs) going in Round 1.
Offensive players are usually the guys who get most of the attention, but I expect Day 1 of the draft to be heavy on defensive contributors this year.
Wide Receivers
This is a decent year for the position, but athletic testing will determine a lot. If several WRs tear up the combine, we could see six WRs go in Round 1, maybe more.
But if this class has modest pre-draft workouts, the number of WRs in the top 32 could drop to just two.
With five currently in my mock, I'm taking something of an optimistic view on this class. All of the WRs have imperfections—but enough of them have Round 1 qualities.
And Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson specifically have the attributes to go in the top 10.
The No. 1 Pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
In superflex leagues, positional scarcity may push QBs up the board, but in non-SF formats, the No. 1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts is RB Jeremiyah Love.
He's just 20 years old, he won the 2025 Doak Walker Award as the top RB in college football, and over the past two seasons he put up 3,014 yards and 40 TDs from scrimmage in 28 games.
With a three-down skill set and workhorse frame (6-0, 214 pounds), Love could be one of the NFL's top backs as a rookie.
If he lands in a functional offense—unlike Ashton Jeanty this past year—he could reasonably draw Round 1 investment in fantasy drafts for season-long, best ball and Guillotine Leagues™.
I currently have him mocked to the Chiefs at No. 9 … but I strongly considered him to the Commanders and Saints at Nos. 7 and 8.
And I even thought about the Giants at No. 5 for half a second.
Anything can happen in the draft, and RB isn't widely regarded as a premium position, but I'd be surprised if Love made it out of the top 10.
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Conference Championship Guilloteenie Risers and Fallers
RISER: SEA RB Kenneth Walker
After the way the 2025 season shook out, it’s fitting that Kenneth Walker would turn in the best fantasy performance of his career in the playoffs. After fantasy’s most maddening backfield lost half of its production once Zach Charbonnet left the game with a knee injury, Walker finished the game with 145 total yards on 6.6 yards per touch and added 3 scores. Charbonnet can’t go this weekend, so Walker ranked accordingly as a top-five option. Velus Jones may siphon some carries, but I doubt he gets the full Charbonnet workload. Monitor Seattle’s left tackle situation: Charles Cross left with a foot injury, and his backup, Josh Jones, was already ruled out before last week’s game. Undrafted rookie Amari Kight would start in their place, which would downgrade the Seattle backfield.
FALLER: Denver Broncos
Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury at the end of last week’s Broncos win. Backup Jarrett Stidham will start Sunday; Stidham has not attempted a pass in a meaningful NFL game in over two calendar years. As such, all Broncos players receive a rankings downgrade ahead of Sunday’s game, especially against a Patriots defense that has terrorized its first two opponents this postseason. RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton remain top-10 options based upon projected volume and the lack of alternatives, but their ceiling is capped by the presence of Stidham. Marvin Mims played a nice game last week, but he will also be limited by Stidham. Ancillary Broncos players like Jaleel McLaughlin, Troy Franklin and Lil’Jordan Humphrey should not be considered at this point. Stidham, himself, is ranked a clear fourth out of four quarterback options, and thus should not be drafted or started.
RISER: NE WR Kayshon Boutte
Kayshon Boutte put an exclamation mark on his breakout sophomore season last Sunday. Boutte posted 3-71-1 with the help of a spectacular one-handed touchdown grab against a smothering Houston secondary, leading all Patriots pass catchers with a 64 Utilization Score. New England has persistently rotated their receiving options to a frustrating degree this season, but Boutte’s touchdown upside is tremendous, so he’s a good option with so few alternatives.
FALLER: Tight Ends
With both George Kittle and Colston Loveland knocked out of the playoffs, the tight end position is bleak from a fantasy perspective. Hunter Henry is the clear top option, if that tells you anything. Colby Parkinson and AJ Barner round out the top 3; after them, there should be no other tight ends drafted. Henry is a top-15 overall option, but can be drafted higher if you want to set yourself apart from the inevitable Parkinson and Barner owners.
Bully tight end is a viable strategy in fresh drafts and existing leagues now. In fresh drafts, snag Henry early, then follow that up with one of Parkinson or Barner, leaving at least one opponent with a clear tier drop in projection. If any combination of Henry, Parkinson or Barner hit waivers in your existing league, you can use your FAAB to box your remaining opponents out of reliable production at a mandatory roster slot.
Biggest Fantasy Football Busts from 2025
Yes, it’s time to relive some of the pain that was the 2025 season. We’re not going to rehash some of the injuries that felled some early-round picks during the season. We’re not cruel like that. But there are players whose production during the season just defied explanation, so Kendall Valenzuela broke down some of the biggest fantasy busts of 2025. She started with Brian Thomas Jr.:
“New head coach Liam Coen brought higher expectations to a team that seemed not to be getting the best out of Trevor Lawrence, and Lawrence seemingly turned things around; it was not Thomas Jr. who benefited. I really don't know what happened, but it was like a night-and-day shift between the receiver and his quarterback. BTJ was plagued by drops and just didn't seem to have consistent chemistry with Lawrence. He was drafted as the WR9 and finished outside the top-40 wideouts. To make matters worse (even though it feels hard to do), he had only five games with 10 or more points. The team also traded for Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, and the emergence of Parker Washington did not help. The organization is downplaying trade rumors, but the output we saw last season from Thomas is going to make drafting him in 2026 that much more difficult.”
It may be just the tip of the iceberg of 2025 pain, but Kendall singled out four more players who let down their fantasy managers. Let’s use this as a lesson for future drafts.⤵️
Around The Watercooler
The latest fantasy and NFL gossip, news, memes and more from our merry band of football nerds …
👀 A way-too-early look at 2026 fantasy rankings … the top 36 WRs are here.
🪓 How to attack the Guilloteenie waiver wire before the Conference Championships.
📺 Kendall and Ronis go from Guilloteenies to Dynasty advice. There may have been some Seahawks talk in there.
💪 Jarrett Stidham pulling a Nick Foles and leading the Broncos to the Super Bowl. Could be closer than most think.
🏈 Matthew sets the record straight on Drake Maye. Don’t worry, he still has Faith in 5.
⚡️ Justin Herbert with Mike McDaniel as OC could be electric.
📰 Possibly a great idea for Josh Allen to get a field stretcher.
🤔 This Fernando Mendoza stat will make you think.
🤞 Hmmm, just think of the Texans using a high pick on an RB. They have the draft capital.
😉 First time in 17 years … one of these is not like the others.
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