Quarterback Draft Strategy For Fantasy Football 2025: Is Jalen Hurts A Steal In Round 4?

When developing a strategy for drafting fantasy football teams, there are three key questions to ask yourself:

Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are considerable factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later, and vice versa.

Using these simple concepts, along with our fantasy football rankings hub—which considers your custom scoring and roster settings—we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.

Every fantasy season, our strategy can differ depending on where positions and players go in drafts. Fortunately, we can access average draft position (ADP) data from all the major sites to help identify the positions where we are most comfortable waiting and which we need to attack early.

Today, we will analyze the 2025 QB landscape with these factors in mind to unveil the optimal draft strategy for the QB position.

If you haven't checked out my QB Tiers or QB Upside articles, the research in those are the backbone for my view on the 2025 QB landscape.

Quarterback Supply and Demand in Fantasy Football

Most fantasy leagues only require one starting QB, drastically reducing the positional demand. That alone makes it a great position to consider waiting on in your draft. However, this season, I am bullish on taking one of the four elite dual-threat options early.

QB Strategy Walkthrough for 2025 Fantasy Drafts

Rounds 1 to 4: Strategy Summary

There are two reasons why drafting one of the dual-threat elite options in Rounds 3 to 4 makes a ton of sense in 2025:

Value: We don't have a Jayden Daniels. Last year, he was the No. 1 key to fading early QBs.
Opportunity cost: Many of the RBs and WRs from pick 26 to 48 (the elite QB range) have question marks. The top-four dual-threats offer high floors and are capable of ceiling seasons that can help you win your league.

Last year, you had to pass WRs like Nico Collins to take the elite QB in Round 3. That isn't the case in 2025. We don't have a mispriced ascending WR1 alpha.

This doesn't mean you can't wait at QB in 2025. I just have less confidence in the backup plans. But more on that below.

In Round 3, you have options from early, middle, and late draft positions. They are all STRATEGY PILLARS for my 2025 draft plan.

Rounds 1 to 4: Targets

Josh Allen | Bills → Strategy Pillar

Consensus ADP: 22.7 (Round 2-3 turn)
Age: 29.3 (Prime)
Fantasy points per game (PPG): 26.0, 24.2, 23.8 (most recent last)

Allen remains elite:

Finished QB2 in PPG last season after four straight QB1 finishes
Median projection: 23.0 PPG | Ceiling: 28.9 | Floor: 18.8

Trends to watch:

Bills have become more balanced under OC Joe Brady
- Dropback Rate Over Expectation (DBOE):
  - 2022: +5.8% (4th)
  - 2023: +2.1% (11th)
  - 2024: -1.8% (23rd)
Passing yards/game: 268 → 253 → 233
WR corps (Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid) has upside, but hasn’t popped yet

Rushing still fuels his fantasy value:

15% designed rush share (6th among QBs)
7% scramble rate (11th)
Goal-line role remains strong (37% of team attempts inside 5)
7, 15, and 12 rushing TDs the last three years

Behind an elite O-line, Allen remains a high-floor/high-ceiling Round 3 pick—and one of the safest bets at QB in 2025 drafts.

Lamar Jackson | Ravens → Strategy Pillar

Consensus ADP: 23.1 (Round 2-3 turn)
Age: 28.7 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 20.4, 21.8, 26.0

Jackson is still that dude:

QB1 finish in 2024 after QB3 and QB6 seasons
Median projection: 22.5 PPG | Ceiling: 28.5 | Floor: 18.3

Expect slight regression, but the floor is strong:

Career-best passing in 2024: 245 YPG | 8.8 YPA | 2.41 TDs/game
2023 under OC Todd Monken: 230 YPG | 8.0 YPA | 1.50 TDs/game
Ravens are efficient, not volume-heavy: -4% DBOE (27th)
Still, Monken uses play action (29%, 5th) to create big plays

Rushing upside remains elite:

19% designed rush rate (4th) | 8% scramble rate (7th)
Only QB with multiple 1,000-yard seasons
Weak at the goal line (4% inside five), so rushing TDs stay modest (5, 4 last two years)

Supporting cast:

Solid options: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely
Unique run game combo with Derrick Henry: make it challenging to defend the whole field against the Ravens

Jackson is a Round 3 dual-threat pillar with week-winning upside and minimal floor concerns.

Jayden Daniels | Commanders → Strategy Pillar

Consensus ADP: 30.3 (Round 3)
Age: 24.7 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 21.1

Daniels is next in line among elite dual-threat breakouts:

Averaged 23.8 PPG in three playoff games
Median projection: 22.0 PPG | Ceiling: 27.7 | Floor: 18.2
Comparable Year 1 starters: Cam Newton, Lamar, Hurts, Justin Herbert, Mahomes

Rushing upside is elite:

No. 1 in scramble rate (12%) | 5th in designed rush rate (18%)
Averaged 52.7 rushing yards per game (adjusted for injuries)
Only Jackson rivals his 800+ rush / 4,000+ pass potential

Passing still has room to grow:

Excluding limited games, averaged 241 passing YPG
Averaged 274 YPG and 23.8 fantasy points in the playoffs

Supporting cast is solid, assuming Terry McLaurin signs:

McLaurin can stretch the field
Deebo Samuel may thrive in Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme

Daniels offers elite dual-threat potential. He is a legit threat to finish as the No. 1 QB and is a SMASH PICK in late Round 3.

Jalen Hurts | Eagles → Strategy Pillar

Consensus ADP: 37 (Round 3-4 turn)
Age: 27.1 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 25.6, 22.4, 22.0

Even in a down passing year, Hurts delivered:

22.0 PPG despite just 194 passing YPG (career low)
Median projection: 22.5 PPG | Ceiling: 28.5 | Floor: 18.3
Top fantasy QB finishers each of the past three seasons

2024 was an outlier run-heavy year:

League-low DBOE: -6.5% | 48% pass rate (lowest in NFL)
Led by 4+ points on 47% of plays—most in the league
Only one team in the last decade posted back-to-back sub-50% pass rates

Expect more balance in 2025:

Projected 54% dropback rate, ~225 passing YPG
Hurts averaged 227 and 247 YPG in 2022–2023

Elite TD upside on the ground:

14, 15, and 13 rushing TDs the past three years
Leads all QBs in inside-the-five rush share

Behind the NFL’s best O-line and with top-tier weapons, Hurts is a Round 4 steal. He is my most-drafted QB through ~75 drafts.

Rounds 5 to 8: Strategy Summary

I am not attacking this range of the draft heavily. Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield are fairly ranked, but there are options that go later and offer a similar range of outcomes. If those two slide past ADP, then I am willing to consider them.

Rounds 5 to 8: Targets

Bo Nix | Broncos → Target When He Falls Past ADP

Consensus ADP: 82 (Round 7)
Age: 25.6 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 18.9

Surprise Round 1 NFL Draft pick? Maybe. Fantasy QB8? Yep.

Median projection: 18.5 PPG | Ceiling: 23.8 | Floor: 15.2
Opened up down the stretch:
- Weeks 1–5: 173 YPG | 1.5% DBOE
- Rest of season: 235 YPG | 2.5% DBOE

Sneaky rushing upside:

10% designed rush rate (8th) | 8% scramble rate (8th)
Averaged 25.3 rushing YPG

Supporting cast slightly improved:

RJ Harvey (Round 2) + J.K. Dobbins add juice to the backfield
Evan Engram provides a chain-moving presence
Courtland Sutton remains the deep/intermediate go-to
Rookie WR Pat Bryant is a sleeper

Elite protection:

PFF’s No. 2 offensive line | Tier 1 in Brandon Thorn’s rankings

Nix has a solid rushing floor and room to grow as a passer. He’s a mid-QB1 with top-5 spike potential—ideal for managers who wait at QB when he slips past ADP.

Kyler Murray | Cardinals → Target at ADP

Consensus ADP: 88 (Round 8)
Age: 28.1 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 18.4, 18.7, 18.5

Murray hasn’t cracked the top 8 in three years, but the ceiling remains:

QB finishes: QB11, QB10, QB11 | 18.5 PPG average
Median projection: 18.6 PPG | Ceiling: 24.1 | Floor: 15.3
Sixth-highest ceiling in the model

Passing concerns are real:

Averaged 222 passing YPG over the last three seasons
TD rate dropped from 5.0% (2019–21) to 3.7% (last 3 years)
League average is 4.6%—positive regression possible

Rushing remains his fantasy lifeline:

30+ rushing YPG every season
4+ rushing TDs in every healthy year | Career-high 11 in 2020

Supporting cast outlook:

Needs Marvin Harrison Jr. to break out
O-line is a concern: bottom-tier in Thorn’s ranks | PFF: No. 16

Murray is a low-end QB1 with clear spike potential. If the weapons hit and rushing holds, he’s a strong value for drafters looking to swing for upside in Round 8.

Rounds 9+: Strategy Summary

The primary focus in Rounds 9 and beyond is identifying ceiling. While the elite dual-threats are off the board, we still want to focus on profiles that could spike in both categories.

To illustrate how much even a little rushing production can matter, there have been 44 QBs who have reached 275 to 299 passing yards per game since 2011. Nine (20%) made it to 22-plus points per game.

0 to 9 rushing yards per game: 1 of 33 (3%)
10 to 19: 5 of 7 (71%)
20-plus: 3 of 4 (75%)

Those that offered 10 or more rushing yards per game offered much stronger hit rates.

The 22-plus points per game is important because that represents the average for a top-three finish. It represents a ~20% advantage over low-end QB1s.

If you don't have a QB before Round 9, consider rostering two of these options. You can even pair them with other names not in this article. I prefer two upside swings.

Rounds 9+: Targets

Brock Purdy | 49ers → Target at ADP

Consensus ADP: 103 (Round 9)
Age: 25.7
Fantasy PPG: 15.8, 19.0, 19.4

Two straight top-10 finishes make Purdy hard to ignore:

QB9 and QB6, the last two seasons
Median projection: 17.7 PPG | Ceiling: 22.7 | Floor: 14.6
Averaged 258 and 268 passing YPG in 2023–2024

Improving mobility helps:

Rushing YPG jumped from 9 → 22 last season
Still posted eight games with 20+ fantasy points, despite TD per game dip (1.9 → 1.3)

Supporting cast is in flux:

Deebo Samuel gone | Brandon Aiyuk (ACL) could miss extended time
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are elite, but aging
Jauan Jennings + rookie Ricky Pearsall offer complementary upside

Strong system, mixed o-line grades:

Kyle Shanahan: 64% motion rate (2nd over last 3 years)
O-line: Below average (Thorn) | PFF: No. 12 with Trent Williams/Puni

Purdy is a safe low-end QB1 with mid-QB1 upside. Purdy profiles similarly to Baker Mayfield at a 30-pick discount.

Justin Fields | Jets → Target at ADP

Consensus ADP: 106 (Round 9)
Age: 26.5 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 20.6, 19.0, 17.4

Fields isn’t perfect, but his rushing makes him a fantasy cheat code:

Median projection: 19.0 PPG | Ceiling: 23.7 | Floor: 15.6
0.62 fantasy points per dropback in 2024 (Lamar was 0.62 in 2023)
QB8 through Week 6 last year (18.9 PPG)

Elite rushing profile:

21% designed rush rate (4th) | 12% scramble rate (1st)
Averages 9.1 attempts, 55 yards, 0.45 TDs per game on the ground
Rushing alone accounts for 8.2 fantasy PPG
Projected for 132 rush attempts in 2025

Passing still a major concern:

Averages just 180 passing YPG in games with 90%+ snaps
Sub-3,000 yards and <20 passing TD projection

Historical comps suggest value:

QBs with similar run/pass volume average 19.2 PPG, QB12 finish

Fields lands just below Kyler and Caleb in the QB tiers but remains a strong low-end QB1 pick with legit top-eight upside..

Caleb Williams | Bears → Strategy Pillar (if waiting at QB)

Consensus ADP: 118 (Round 10)
Age: 22.8 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG: 15.6

Yes, the rookie year was rough. Yet, the upside is undeniable:

Median projection: 18.2 PPG | Ceiling: 23.4 | Floor: 14.9
One of the few QBs with 4,500 pass + 500 rush potential

Improved ecosystem:

Coaching: Ben Johnson takes over
Offensive line: Massive upgrade (Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Trapilo)
- Thorn: Top 10 | PFF: No. 4 unit
Weapons: DJ Moore + Round 1 TE Colston Loveland + Round 2 WR Luther Burden III

Underrated rushing ability:

81 carries, 489 yards (28.8 YPG) as a rookie
Zero TDs, but QBs with 70–90 attempts average 3.6 TDs → positive regression candidate

Williams offers high-end QB1 upside with a Round 10 price. He might bust, but he provides a unique blend of traits hard to find later in the draft.

Drake Maye | Patriots → Strategy Pillar (if waiting at QB)

Consensus ADP: 131 (Round 11)
Age: 23 (Prime)
Fantasy points per game: 15.0

Maye had a rough rookie year on the surface, but he offers upside:

Median projection: 18.5 PPG | Ceiling: 23.6 | Floor: 15.2
Averaged 235 passing + 37 rushing YPG (17.1 PPG) in full games

Supporting cast is trending up:

Stefon Diggs expected back Week 1 (ACL recovery)
Added: TreVeyon Henderson (Round 2), WR Kyle Williams (Round 3)

Coaching and scheme shift:

Mike Vrabel (HC) brings a conservative philosophy
Expect a run-first approach aimed at improving efficiency

Rushing ceiling is significant:

14% designed rush rate in college
3% as a rookie—that could rise
Already 2nd in scramble rate (11%)

O-line still a concern:

Bottom five in both PFF and Thorn rankings

Maye isn’t a sure thing, but his rushing/passing combo makes him a breakout candidate worth targeting.

Trevor Lawrence → Target at ADP

Lawrence is coming off his worst season but still has a strong fantasy resume, finishing as the QB12 and QB8 in 2022 and 2023. His dual-threat profile offers sneaky upside:

2022: 242 pass YPG | 17.1 rush YPG
2023: 251 pass YPG | 21 rush YPG

Offseason upgrades:

Jaguars drafted Travis Hunter (No. 2 overall) to pair with Brian Thomas Jr.
New HC Liam Coen helped revive the Bucs’ offense in 2024

Concerns to monitor:

Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks near the bottom (PFF + Thorn)

Projection model:

Floor: 14.5 PPG
Median: 17.6 PPG
Ceiling: 22.9 PPG

Lawrence is a high-end QB2 with spike-season QB1 upside. If Coen unlocks the offense, he’s a late-round steal in 2025 drafts.

Honorable Mentions:

J.J. McCarthy | Vikings: McCarthy steps into a proven Kevin O'Connell system that delivered top-12 seasons for Cousins and Darnold. Though not a rushing threat in college, his athleticism offers untapped upside. Surrounded by elite weapons, McCarthy is a strong late-round selection.
Jordan Love | Packers: Love's fantasy output dipped (19.6 → 15.9 PPG), but efficiency improved (8.0 YPA, 5.9% TD rate). Injuries limited his rushing (5.5 YPG), and Green Bay leaned run-heavy with frequent leads. With WR Matthew Golden joining Reed and Kraft, Love has mid-QB2 value and QB1 spike potential in LaFleur’s efficient scheme.
C.J. Stroud | Texans: After a QB7 rookie season, Stroud regressed to QB28 (219 YPG, 7.0 YPA). Poor O-line play hurt, but Houston added six linemen and new weapons in Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, and Christian Kirk. With a new McVay-style OC, Stroud is a Round 12 bounce-back candidate with low-end QB1 upside.
Anthony Richardson | Colts: Richardson has averaged 17.4 points over his two-year career in games where he reached 90%+ snaps. He has been Justin Fields-like with 181 passing yards and 48.4 rushing yards per game. The former No. 4 overall NFL Draft pick is battling Daniel Jones. If Richardson gets under center, he will offer spike potential thanks to his rushing ability, making him a stash option if you don't like the upside of your QB1.

Quarterback Draft Capital Guidelines

If you secured one of the elite dual-threat QBs, you should rarely draft another. There are exceptions, like late picks in 20-round drafts or if you can trade. However, you must know your league mates; making exceptions is an easy way to damage your team—especially in the early and middle rounds.
If you secured your QB1 in Round 9 or later, strongly consider adding a second QB. This strategy diverges from my historical preferences. It makes sense this year because we have less confidence in *which* late-round QBs will hit. You could even stretch this rule to Kyler Murray (Round 8). If you play in a league where everyone drafts only one QB, and know options will be on the wire, you can opt out of taking a second.
Note: If you are playing in a best ball or superflex format, these rules don't apply. The QBs will go earlier in drafts, and you must have at least two or sometimes more. Be sure to check out our superflex settings in the rankings tools.