Quarterback Regression Candidates For Fantasy Football: Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, And More

We have fewer than 50 days until the NFL regular season kicks off. The news cycle is starting to pick back up, training camps will be in full swing soon, and preseason will be here before we know it. Most fantasy leagues will begin drafting about a month from now, which means the next 4-5 weeks are crucial for identifying player targets, evaluating ADP, and strategizing for your drafts.

One of the easiest traps to fall into is assuming that what happened last season is the baseline for a player. In reality, production ebbs and flows from season to season as circumstances change. Most fantasy leagues, and therefore ADP, tend to overvalue what happened last season which can lead to overreactions. This, in turn, creates opportunities that smart fantasy managers can exploit.

The goal of this article is to identify players who performed above or below a reasonable baseline expectation for their talent and situation last season. We know there will be outliers in 2025 like there are every season, but I like to think of the positive regression candidates as players with the wind at their back while the negative regression candidates face a headwind when it comes to repeating last season's performance.

Quarterbacks Facing Regression For Fantasy Football 2025

Positive Regression Candidates

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

After an electric rookie campaign C.J. Stroud declined in virtually every category during his second season. A theme of these regression candidates is that the change in year-over-year production isn't entirely on them. Injuries to skill players and changes to the offensive scheme contributed to:

Year	YPA	TD Rate	INT Rate
2023	8.2	4.6%	1.0%
2024	7.0	3.8%	2.3%

I am encouraged by some of the steps taken by the Texans to add talent around Stroud and not be content with their 2024 outcome. The team moved on from OC Bobby Slowik, signed Christian Kirk, and drafted two promising WRs in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. With Nico Collins already in place as the team's WR1 and Dalton Schultz a reliable option at TE, I really like the pass-catching group that Stroud has to throw to in 2025.

With only 32 regular-season games under his belt, it is too early to say we know exactly who Stroud is as an NFL player, but I am inclined to think it is closer to what we saw in his rookie season. If that is the case, and if Houston has a more well-designed offense under Nick Caley than it did under Slowik, there is a good chance we could see Stroud's best season as a pro in 2025.

I realize that multiple 'if' statements is a lot to bank on, but Stroud is being drafted outside the top-12 QBs in all formats, which lowers the risk associated with betting on a Year 3 leap.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Through his first five seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged 38.4 TDs per season with a TD rate just shy of 6.5%. This established him as one of the most prolific QBs in the NFL, but for the past two seasons he has been living more on name value than actual production, at least when it comes to fantasy football.

Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has topped out at 27 TD passes with a 4.5% TD rate. He has also recorded the two lowest YPA seasons of his career in back-to-back years. He hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the elite fantasy producer that people expect him to be.

Similar to Stroud, the weapons that Mahomes has to work with should be much better in 2025 than they were in 2024. Even with Rashee Rice facing a suspension, he should be available for most of the season and his presence along with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce makes for a really strong group. The team also has intriguing rookies Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith who could contribute in the passing game as well. As long as they aren't devastated by injuries the way they were in 2024 this should be a much better supporting cast

The biggest question about the Chiefs is whether they are going to be willing to throw the ball more aggressively this season. We have to be careful with offseason talking points, but it appears throwing the ball down the field will be more of a focus for Kansas City in 2025.

Mahomes is still being drafted at the back end of the 'elite' QB tier, but the opportunity cost to take him is the lowest it has been in years. I will be paying close attention to what the team and reporters are saying for how the Chiefs offense will attack opposing defenses in 2025, but if they appear to be leaning into a pass-heavy approach then this might be the latest we get to draft Mahomes for years to come.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

We have a large sample size to evaluate Matthew Stafford's career. At this point, he is who he is, and that is a great pocket passer who can dissect a defense but won't add anything with his legs.

This profile makes his fantasy production very reliant on passing TDs. It's no surprise that the two seasons where he has finished as a top-5 fantasy QB (2011 and 2021) are the two seasons where he had 41 passing TDs.

Timeframe	TD Rate
2024	3.9%
2021 - 2023 (LA)	5.3%
Career Total	4.6%

His QB19 fantasy finish in total points was tied for the worst in a season where he played in 16 games and his 3,762 passing yards were also his lowest mark for a full season. This aligns with the fact that he had a meaningfully lower TD rate than he did in his first three seasons with the Rams as well as his career average.

Heading into his age-37 season we know what Stafford's ability is, but his supporting cast has likely improved with the addition of Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson, and Jarquez Hunter. If the Rams go with a more pass-heavy attack or Stafford simply returns closer to his long-term averages, we are looking at another 4-6 TD passes. In a positive outlier year he could easily top 30 passing TDs in this offense. That would make him a top-10 fantasy QB and a huge hit for fantasy managers who take him as the QB20 or later in their draft.

Negative Regression Candidates

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Baker Mayfield is an under-appreciated story in the NFL is one we've heard a lot. He went from looking like a bust for the first overall pick and playing for three teams in two seasons to finding his footing and putting up consecutive 4,000-yard passing campaigns in Tampa Bay.

2024 in particular was a career season for Mayfield as he set new career highs for yards per attempt, TD passes, completion percentage, and rushing yards. All of that combined to make him the QB5 in fantasy points per game last season.

Tampa Bay is once again loaded at the skill positions with an incredibly deep WR room and two good pass-catching RBs. The risk factor for the Bucs offense is the departure of Liam Coen, who accepted the HC job in Jacksonville. Mayfield thrived in Coen's system and while new OC Josh Grizzard will certainly borrow some of the concepts that worked last season, it creates a degree of uncertainty that lowers the fantasy floor for the entire offense.

Even if Coen were still in place we would be projecting statistical regression for Baker's passing stats, but the change at the OC spot widens the range of outcomes. Fantasy managers are definitely pricing that risk in as Mayfield isn't being drafted like he will repeat as a top-5 fantasy QB, but he is still going off the board in the QB7-QB10 range in most formats, which leaves room for him to disappoint fantasy managers in 2025.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Similar to the Bucs, Jared Goff and the Lions also lost their offensive coordinator this offseason. This adds a level of uncertainty to the overall offensive environment that makes it more difficult to project how Goff and Co. should be valued for fantasy purposes. Also similar to the Mayfield case, we would be projecting negative statistical regression for Goff even if Ben Johnson were still his offensive coordinator. Goff had career highs in passing TDs, yards per attempt, and completion percentage in the 2024 season. He is due to come back down to earth a bit in 2025.

If Detroit remains among the most explosive and exciting offenses in the NFL this year he could still be one of the more efficient passers in the league, but it is more difficult to assume that will be the case. The Lions have a number of dynamic pass catchers to make Goff's job easier, but they also have one of the NFL's best RB duos and a strong offensive line.

Even if Goff is a 4,000+ yard passer again, the Lions could choose to go extra run-heavy around the goal line, which has the potential to redistribute a number of Goff's passing TDs to the RBs. To that point, Dwain McFarland's projections have Goff at 4,200+ passing yards but just 28 passing TDs. That would still be a very good passing season, but that output only puts Goff at the QB15 for projected fantasy points because he adds virtually nothing with his legs. QBs like Drake Maye and Justin Fields will almost certainly trail way behind Goff in passing production, the fantasy points they add on the ground have them coming out ahead of him in projections for full-season fantasy points.

The good news is that Goff isn't being drafted like fantasy managers are expecting him to repeat his 2024 performance so he is still a viable pick if you choose to wait at the position or target him as a QB2.