Quaterback Rankings For Week 1: Jalen Hurts, Bryce Young, and More of Freedman's Favorites

This is my 10th season writing the weekly piece now known as Freedman Favorites, which this year will be split into four separate positional breakdowns (QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs).

In the olden days, my articles were intentional tomes. I tried to cram into them every actionable insight I could find.

Now, I strive for brevity—for the sake of my readers, editors, family, and sanity. I enjoy beating dead horses, but not everyone shares my sickness.

For the past few years, not unlike a '90s rock band playing an unplugged set, I've steadfastly endeavored to strip everything down to its essential purple core. (Yes, that's a Stone Temple Pilots reference.)

Instead of talking about all the players in a slate, I now focus on the guys I like. And instead of giving you 5-8 data points on a player, I now give the 2-3 most important.

The older I get, the more valuable I realize time is—and I don't want to waste it for anyone with a piece longer than necessary.

With that in mind, let's get into the Week 1 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites.

But first, as always, some notes.

Week 1 Quarterback Rankings

In this piece I highlight some QBs I expect to perform better than they usually do. Basically, these are guys I'm upgrading this week.

Rankings, Projections & Newsletter: I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which is where any updated opinions will manifest after article submission. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life Newsletter.

Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Schedule: I plan to abide by the following rankings and projections schedule this season.

Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
Sun AM: Revise rankings
Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. Not bad.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: While my positional breakdowns are published separately, I think of them as comprising one larger whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 1 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

Running Backs (to be released)
Wide Receivers (to be released)
Tight Ends (to be released)

Abbreviations: See the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 QBs

Jalen Hurts (Eagles) vs. Cowboys

Week 1 Rank: QB2

Let's start with the Cowboys.

Last year, they were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.8). They're on their third defensive playcaller in three years (DC Matt Eberflus). They're without LB DeMarvion Overshown (knee, PUP) and CB Shavon Revel (knee, NFI).

And they just traded away All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons.

I expect this defense to be exploitable all season.

As for the Eagles, they're kicking off their Super Bowl defense at home on Thursday Night Football: They're one of the best teams in the NFL—and this week they're No. 1 in implied team total (27.5, per our Fantasy Life Odds Page).

And the situational spot is good for Jalen Hurts (per Action Network).

Hurts in Primetime: 13-7-1 ATS | 23.7% ROI
Hurts as Home Favorite: 18-10-1 ATS | 21.9% ROI

Last year, Hurts put up 30.7 fantasy points on 202 yards and two TDs passing (to one INT) with 7-56-2 rushing in his one game against the division rival Cowboys.

Bryce Young (Panthers) at Jaguars

Week 1 Rank: QB23

I'm still skeptical that Bryce Young is actually good, and he's without WR Adam Thielen (traded) and Jalen Coker (quad, IR).

Even so, I can't deny that the 2023 No. 1 pick improved in his final 10 games last year, after he reclaimed the starting job in Week 8 (61.8% completion rate, 6.7 AY/A, 37-223-5 rushing).

Entering his second season with offensive HC Dave Canales, Young could continue to progress as a third-year pro, especially if first-round WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette play to their draft capital.

The road trip from Carolina to Jacksonville is insignificant, and the matchup is wonderful: The Jags last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.241, per RBs Don't Matter) and defensive pass DVOA (35.0%, per FTN).

And new DC Anthony Campanile has never called plays before in the NFL.

The Jags defense might improve as the season goes along, but it could struggle early in the campaign.

The Dropback

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) at Falcons: Week 1 divisional indoor overs are 20-11 (25.9% ROI, since 2003), and last year Mayfield was tied for No. 1 at the position with seven top-five fantasy finishes (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix). The Falcons are starting two rookies in their secondary (SCB Billy Bowman, FS Xavier Watts).

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) vs. Panthers: The Panthers in 2025 were No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (50.3%), and Lawrence should benefit from the offseason additions of offensive HC Liam Coen and first-round WR Travis Hunter.

Joe Flacco (Browns) vs. Bengals: In his past 17 starts (including playoffs), Flacco has passed for 4,857 yards and 31 TDs—he had 1,923 yards and 14 TDs passing in his six-game 2023 CPOY stint with the Browns—and the Bengals last year were No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+3.5).

Spencer Rattler (Saints) vs. Cardinals: I'm just saying … what if offensive HC Kellen Moore is good at his job? The Cardinals last year were No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.7%), and perimeter CBs Will Johnson and Max Melton—both in their first year as starters—are problematically unproven.

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)