All The Way Up!
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs (ADP: 68, ROS: 12)
You spent the offseason wondering what would happen to Rashee Rice while you watched his ADP drop precipitously. There were so many unknowns: how harsh would his punishment be for his legal issue, how long would his suspension be, and how long would it take for him to return to form? With all the questions, many (myself included) could not help taking him between the fourth and sixth round depending on how many teams were in your league. You listened to the ridicule from your leaguemates questioning whether you would still be in position for a playoff berth by week seven; you wondered the same thing, but you still took him. You took him because in the first three games of the 2024 season, he had 24 receptions on 29 targets, 288 yards, and two touchdowns. That included a top-three day in PPR formats. Then it was over for him.
In week six, he returned. While some wanted us to be patient and wait because he might not be who he was when he left, we went all in, and he rewarded us with a top-10 performance. He finished with seven receptions on ten targets for 47 yards. He also added a receiving and rushing touchdown. The most encouraging thing about the performance is that this is not the best we could see from Rice. He participated in fewer than half of the possible routes. That number is sure to increase as he settles back into his role as the primary pass catcher in Kansas City. This likely means that his current ranking of 12 for the rest of the season is too low, and if you can maneuver that into acquiring Rice, then do so before he continues to rise.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (ADP: 33.1, ROS: 7)
A lot of people were worried about Jaxon Smith-Njigba being able to continue to ascend in his production from last season’s numbers. That is why he was going in the third round of most drafts—but we were wrong. This season, he is on pace to absolutely obliterate his 2024 numbers. In 17 games last season, he hauled in 100 passes, 1130 yards, and six touchdowns. Through seven games this season, he has 50 receptions for 819 yards and four touchdowns. He has averaged 18.29 fantasy points per game this year. Only Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Bijan Robinson are scoring more weekly than JSN. He has risen to the top of an extremely talented group of receivers. His ranking for the rest of the season is far too low for me unless someone can convince me that the Seahawks are going to stop targeting him. I do not see any receiver outpacing him for the remainder of the season; he should be top four.
Down Bad!
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars (ADP: 18.6, ROS: 37)
During the offseason, I made a bold claim that all four of the prominent LSU receivers would be in the top five receivers in fantasy. Seven weeks in, and Malik Nabers is out for the season, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are dealing with backup quarterbacks, and Brian Thomas Jr. has been on the back of a milk carton for most of the season. As a second-round pick in most fantasy drafts, Thomas has underperformed this season. Week six was his only top 10 finish in half PPR formats. The other six weeks, he finished outside the top 30. It is time we recalibrate his value, especially after a week seven where Travis Hunter was able to finish in the top eight. There has been something off with Thomas all season. His connection with Trevor Lawrence has been off. He has not seemed as locked in as he was as a rookie. It could be dealing with the notoriety that comes with success, but whatever it is, we can no longer rely on him as a mainstay, and that is reflected in his rest-of-season ranking.
Nico Collins, WR, Texans (ADP: 14.6, ROS: 39)
Whenever the rushing attack is struggling, the passing game is normally how the team continues to compete and give themselves a chance to win. That usually means an increase in the production of the wide receivers, especially the WR1 on the team. The Texans are 18th in rushing this season; last year they were 15th, and Collins had a great season. In only 12 games, he had 68 receptions, 1006 yards, and seven touchdowns. Through six games this season, he has 26 receptions for 339 yards and three touchdowns. He is behind Dalton Schultz in receptions, even though he has been targeted nine fewer times. It is time to recalibrate how we see him. Yes, he was a fringe first-round pick and a lock to be a WR1, but as of now, he is performing like a WR3 or even a flex option.
Quick Hitters
Rookie RB Flip Flop
Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants (ADP: 101.9, ROS: 33)
Skattebo has made himself a valuable member of the New York offense. He runs the ball extremely hard and has good vision through the line of scrimmage. The surprise is how well his receiving ability has transitioned to the NFL. He has 23 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown through seven games, in addition to his 398 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He has been in the top 25 for six straight weeks and inside the top 15 three times in PPR and half PPR leagues. Considering his ADP, he has become an absolute steal, and we could continue to see his value increase over the next few weeks.
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders (ADP: 11.8, ROS: 32)
Ashton Jeanty is super talented, and we have seen it on display in the NFL. What we have not seen is a lot of open holes for him to run through or even dynamic usage of his talents. The Raiders' offense has been pretty stale, which is surprising when you consider that their current offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, used to be one of the pioneers behind innovation in the past 15 years of football. It has been an uphill battle for him to find consistency in this offense. Jeanty is still a talent, but it is safe to say that we have to reconfigure our expectations to look different than when he was going in the first round of drafts.
Tight End Twist Up
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals (ADP: 29.7, ROS: 18)
Trey McBride has seen his performance elevate from being simply a PPR monster to being a factor in standard leagues where touchdowns are more important. Why? Because if there is one quarterback who understands the importance of targeting tight ends, it is Jacoby Brissett. He came up in the Patriots era where they were concentrating on multiple tight end sets and targeting them like receivers. He also understands how to get the ball out of his hands quickly and not rely on athleticism to extend the play. It is also evident how much Brissett respects the position and loves playing quarterback. McBride has been reaping the benefits. He went from three touchdowns in his last 21 games to three touchdowns in his last two.
Tyler Warren, TE, Colts (ADP: 95.5, ROS: 25)
Many wondered if we would once again have a rookie ascend to the top of the fantasy world at tight end. Some thought it would be Bears rookie Colston Loveland, but I was bullish on Tyler Warren being a big factor. What I was not sure about was how good this Colts offense would be. That has really allowed him to shine without having a heavy target on his back or feeling the pressure to perform. He is simply doing his part, and that part is paying dividends for fantasy managers who have him on their rosters. When you think about him going in the eighth to 10th rounds, you have to be ecstatic with the return on investment. He has been over double digits across all formats the past four weeks. Not surprisingly, he has found the endzone in all four weeks.
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