Sleeper ADP Risers and Fallers: Joe Flacco, Christian Kirk, and More
Chris Allen highlights some notable ADP risers and fallers to monitor as you head into your fantasy drafts.
I had some of the toughest professors in college.
Notice I said professors and not classes. Of course, the material was difficult. Coincidentally, the sky was always overcast as I trudged to my physics exams in Zimmer Hall. But my main problem was the structure of the tests. There was always a curveball. I’d study everything. But then, some concept I thought was innocuous is now worth a quarter of my grade. Understanding the market has a similar feel to it.
But we’re the ones giving the test.
We drive ADP. The ups and downs are all fueled by our reactions to what we’ve learned. Preseason action has altered the values of multiple skill players. But the biggest risers and fallers are worth monitoring as we head into our drafts.
Biggest Risers
Joe Flacco (+7)
The move that everyone expected, but the market reacted to nonetheless.
The Browns telegraphed Joe Flacco’s starting role back in April. Their decision to wait until the second and third day of the draft solidified it. Regardless, his return to Cleveland is a boon for the Browns’ pass-catchers.
- Air Yards per Game: 328.3, 3rd
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.8, 3rd
- Dropbacks per Game: 40.0, 7th
Even in Indianapolis, Flacco was letting it fly. His penchant for throwing (and going deep) provides some confidence around his pass-catchers. Our only concern should be how long Flacco has until HC Kevin Stefanski wants to evaluate the other passers on the roster.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+64.8)
Unfortunately for me and all Bengals fans, I’m pretty sure I could gain one (1) yard against Cincinnati’s run defense. Jacory Croskey-Merritt did a bit better.
Of course, “Bill” Croskey-Merritt’s rise in drafts isn’t solely because he picked up 46 yards (40 of them on one run) and a score in preseason. It’s the potential consolidation of his backfield. Reports indicate Washington is looking to move on from Brian Robinson. And while a trade would only reduce the number of Commanders RBs down to three (plus a mobile QB), Croskey-Merritt’s athletic profile at least gives him a shot at the early-down work in a potent offense.
Isaac TeSlaa (+31.9)
The Detroit Lions already have a few playmakers. But one more isn’t a bad thing.
Isaac TeSlaa has already stood out in Lions’ training camp. His ability to create explosives strengthens his case for being on the field. But two things are working against him.
First, Detroit had three receivers on the field at the ninth-lowest rate. And we already know Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams have claimed the two starting spots. Then there’s their red-zone tendencies. Jared Goff threw the ball while in scoring position at the sixth-lowest rate.
However, if you’re looking for a FLEX play, TeSlaa is worth a shot. Detroit could rework its passing game to offset its offensive line issues. Either way, with big plays in his repertoire, adding a WR with TeSlaa’s profile to your bench is worth the risk.
Biggest Fallers
Christian Kirk (-11.1)
Both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have been making plays in preseason games. Higgins’s talent was on full display last week. However, neither has seen significant action with C.J. Stroud. Plus, the team is telling us something different.
But beat reports already indicate Christian Kirk holds the starting slot role. Higgins primarily played outside in college (29.5% career-high slot rate). Noel would be the primary backup to Kirk. Outside of an injury, Kirk projects for the same workload. If he continues to slip, he’ll become an even greater value in drafts.
MarShawn Lloyd (-11.1)
The news nobody from Green Bay wanted to hear.
The worst injury timeline estimate a coach can provide is “some time.” And that’s exactly what HC Matt LaFleur used to describe MarShawn Lloyd’s latest lower-body ailment. The second-year RB has yet to string together multiple productive outings, with a variety of ailments keeping him off the field. His absence solidifies Josh Jacobs’s second-round value. And managers looking for late-round value should look to Emanuel Wilson, who has not only earned receiving work in the preseason but has also operated in the short-yardage and goal-line role in Jacobs’s stead.
Dallas Goedert (-13.6)
Honestly, I’d be buying the dip on Dallas Goedert in drafts.
A.J. Brown is still working his way back from a hamstring injury that’s been plaguing him for the last two months. Philadelphia’s WR1 has missed most of training camp. But the expectation is he’ll be available for Week 1. At best, this raises concerns about Brown’s long-term health, in which case Goedert’s opportunity would spike. Coincidentally, Goedert led the Eagles in red-zone target share last season. Any increase in overall volume would pull him back into the top 12 in no time.
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