Sleeper Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers: Braelon Allen Up, Matthew Stafford Down

Using Fantasy Life's ADP Tool, I'm going to break down some of the biggest fantasy-relevant ADP risers and fallers on Sleeper over the last week.

Sleeper ADP Risers

Braelon Allen - RB, Jets

ADP Change: -6.9

Once again, the New York Jets will be one of the more intriguing offenses to follow this season. Our projections have Justin Fields finishing as the QB10, so there's at least some hope for fantasy value.

However, aside from Fields, the biggest storyline has been that of fourth-year RB Breece Hall.

Hall, a second-round pick, is heading into the final year of his rookie contract and has already stated he doesn't anticipate getting a new deal before the season starts. He's talked about how he wasn't drafted by the current coaching regime and that he's not "their guy".

We'll have to wait and see how that plays out in the weeks and months ahead, but the news has pushed second-year player Braelon Allen up the board.

As a rookie, Allen tallied 334 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on 92 rushing attempts (3.6 yards per carry). On the flip side, Allen posted a solid line of 209 / 876 / 5 (4.2 yards per carry). Our projections for 2025 have them posting similar lines.

Allen is starting to creep up the draft boards, and managers who take Hall may be forced to snag his backup as well. Even if you don't draft Hall, Allen may provide enough stand-alone value to be more than just a high-end, league-winning handcuff.

Jaylen Wright - RB, Dolphins

ADP Change: -6.3

Another second-year RB is starting to climb the draft boards this offseason.

Jaylen Wright, who boasts 94th-percentile marks or higher in the 40-yard dash, speed score, and burst score, had a disappointing rookie season relative to expectations and overall athleticism.

He finished behind both De'Von Achane (203) and Raheem Mostert (85) in rushing attempts with 68. With Mostert gone, there's an opportunity for Wright to carry an even larger load this season (literally).

Achane is the clear-cut No. 1 option, but this team should be dynamic enough to support Wright on his own. Similar to the aforementioned Allen, drafters are keying in on Wright as a Zero-RB target who also carries massive contingent upside should something happen to Achane.

Keep tabs on Wright's ADP in the days and weeks to come with our ADP tool.

Nick Chubb - RB, Texans

ADP Change: -4.7

From a pair of sophomores to an established veteran, Nick Chubb could find himself as the Texans' RB1 once Week 1 rolls around.

Incumbent and presumed starter Joe Mixon is dealing with a foot injury that could potentially keep him out for an extended period of time. With no definitive timetable for Mixon's recovery, Chubb is making his way up draft boards and into the starting lineup for practice.

Chubb is making his own way back from injury after appearing in just 10 total games over the last two seasons. However, the last time we saw Chubb healthy (2022), he posted an absurd line of 302/1,525/12 TDs.

It would be unfair and unrealistic to expect that type of production from Chubb. Even so, the Texans offense projects to be solid. C.J. Stroud & Co. should be able to move the ball and put up plenty of points, meaning there should be ample scoring opportunities for Chubb.

It's worth noting that rookie Woody Marks could also find himself earning a few more touches if Mixon were to miss significant time. Keep an ear out for any updates surrounding Mixon, but either way, Chubb should be on your radar more than he previously was.

Sleeper ADP Fallers

Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Dolphins

ADP Change: +17.8

It's becoming increasingly more difficult to trust Tua Tagovailoa in fantasy football. While it's admittedly been frustrating from an injury perspective, we now have five seasons of data to work with.

Tua has only topped 3,600 passing yards in a season one time, he's only thrown for more than 25 TDs in a season one time, and he offers virtually nothing in the rushing game.

We know he has weapons ... any QB would love to have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the aforementioned RBs in Achane and Wright. However, the injury concerns are real, and the durability issues remain constant.

The QB position feels pretty solid. There are 20 or so options I would feel comfortable with as my starter in 1QB redraft leagues, depending on how I constructed my roster. The rest of the community must feel the same, as Tua has tumbled down draft boards in recent weeks.

Whether it was Hill's questionable comments about the offense and his (lack of) understanding of it in recent years or if drafters are just not all that interested as we get into August, Tua isn't looking as valuable as he used to.

Matthew Stafford - QB, Rams

ADP Change: +15.3

At what point do we push the panic button on Matthew Stafford?

We know he's the modern-day Iron Man and has put his body through more than its fair share of beatings over the years, but the 37-year-old QB has been unable to shake his latest back injury this offseason.

The latest news is that he received an epidural injection to help manage the pain of an aggravated disc in his back.

That sounds … painful. Not great.

If there's a silver lining from a fantasy perspective, our projections weren't all that optimistic about his chances this season anyway. We have him down at QB26 (even behind Tua).

Based on his latest injury news, it looks like the fantasy community is beginning to fade him as well. The bigger question, in my mind, is what the potential impacts will be on both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams should Stafford miss time. Jimmy Garoppolo is the current backup and should be able to keep this offense afloat if called upon.

Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for their starting QB in 2025 if Stafford's injury lingers.

Mike Gesicki - TE, Bengals

ADP Change: +14.2

In his first season with the Bengals, Mike Gesicki had his most targets (83), receptions (65), and receiving yards (665) since 2021. He finished third in targets behind both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

However, with the Bengals top trio locked up for the foreseeable future, and another season of condensed targets looming, fantasy managers are souring on Gesicki as a potential streaming option this season. Despite his mini-resurgence last season, he only finished as the TE13.

Our projections don't paint a rosy picture, either. We have him all the way down at TE21, which doesn't even make him a streaming option, in my opinion.

Gesicki, who is currently battling a hamstring injury, was joined by Noah Fant this offseason. Fellow TEs Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample have also been serviceable when called upon.

Gesicki remains a TD-dependent option for only the most desperate fantasy managers.