Start 'Em, Sit 'Em For Week 12 Fantasy Football: Start Jordan Love, Sit Javonte Williams
Gene Clemons and John Laghezza break down their Week 12 starts and sits for fantasy football.
It feels good to be back in the win column. Took a few more strays on social media than usual for daring to suggest thinking twice about Saquon Barkley last week—who dropped a whopping 10 points against Detroit, good for RB27 overall.
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Start These Players In Week 12
Jordan Love, QB, GB
LAGHEZZA: Add Green Bay’s narrow escape from New York last Sunday to an ever-growing list of relative disappointments. Sure, the Pack broke a two-game win streak by eclipsing 17 points for just the first time in three games—while losing arguably their best player. Wait, so why do we like Jordan Love again this weekend?
The answer, as almost always, lies in the matchup. For starters, potentially losing Josh Jacobs could force GB to adopt a more pass-heavy approach. Backup Emanuel Wilson’s perfectly cromulent as a second fiddle—though his 43% success rate and -0.14 EPA/attempt tell me to temper expectations for anything near an apples-to-apples swap from Jacobs.
Boost Green Bay’s pass rate against Kevin O’Connell’s hyper-aggressive defensive scheme, and what do you get? Jordan Love in a prime spot to break out Sunday—he’s third among all QBs in Blitz EPA, with eight touchdowns to just five sacks against extra rushers this season. I also love the prospect of a few deep shots to GB’s new WR1 since returning from IR, Christian Watson.
None of that even mentions the systemic failures on the Vikings’ offensive side, with J.J. McCarthy’s league-worst 5.7% INT rate offering short fields every week. Jordan Love collects his third top fantasy finish by going for 300 and three TDs on Sunday … who says no?
Andrei Iosivas, WR, CIN
CLEMONS: This is still the Bengals, and thus the Bengals defense against a Patriots offense that is red hot. They will need to pass the ball. With no Ja'Marr Chase to throw to, Iosivas is the next man up. He is a big-bodied receiver that we have already seen have a WR11 finish just three weeks ago. He will not get all of the Chase targets, but he should get a healthy injection of them.
There is also a chance that Joe Burrow is back for this one. Can you say “rocket boost”? I can, and with Tee Higgins likely drawing Christian Gonzalez in coverage and the Patriots have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, so running the ball will not be easy. It opens the door for a massive day from the former Princeton Tiger regardless of who is passing him the ball.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
LAGHEZZA: Prepare yourself for the least popular fantasy take of the week, if not the entire year. Months of aggravation toward the New England backfield gave way to unbridled ecstasy with a dominating TreVeyon Henderson takeover—except now incumbent Rhamondre Stevenson’s set to return. Womp womp. What a party pooper.
From “Henderson’s earned a feature role, don’t you watch the games?!” to “Well, take away those two huge plays and the rest was blah …”— predictions for Week 12’s Patriot RB usage couldn’t be wider. Well, I'm going to settle it once and for all …
(Drum roll) It doesn’t matter! New England’s playing the Bengals! Dealer blackjack, everybody wins!
Cincinnati’s run defense ranks 30th or worse almost literally across the board, allowing nearly 29 fantasy points to opposing running backs per game—which is nearly 23% worse than the next team! The bottom line is, we get another week to fight over the Patriots’ deserved starter because they’re both in line for 15+ fantasy points Sunday.
And if Rhamondre Stevenson out-touches TreVeyon Henderson, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Greg Dortch WR, ARI
CLEMONS: Last week, Dortch was six-for-six on targets and receptions. He gained 66 yards and found the endzone once. That is a solid day when you consider Michael Wilson had 15 receptions for 185 yards. With the news that Marvin Harrison Jr. will be sidelined for another week, the perimeter belongs to these two once again. I could see those 15 receptions for Wilson being a little more evenly distributed this week against a Jacksonville defense that has improved and will look to limit Wilson and, of course, Trey McBride. Dortch's size allows him to get lost in coverage, but Brissett is tall enough to find him. He could have a quality game this week after last week's solid performance.
Sit These Players In Week 12
Javonte Williams, RB, DAL
LAGHEZZA: Javonte Williams’ season serves as a perfect reminder of how perspective changes by adjusting timeframes. When you see fantasy football’s overall RB9 (RB11 by points/game) on a ~30-point Dallas offense, it’s easy to bucket that player as a must-start. Squint a touch, and a magic eye image you didn’t expect may appear.
After beating up on the dreadful Jets in Week 5, Williams rated more along the lines of preseason expectations—a volume-based back-end RB2 with uninspiring underpinning metrics: (-0.10 EPA/attempt, 44% success, 4.4 yards/carry, 7.6% explosive rush rate).
Also worth noting is Dak Prescott’s <15% RB-target rate, making Javonte essentially a TD- or game-script-dependent play at this point. To that point, Philly’s playing their best defense of the season, capped off by holding Detroit to a season-low nine points. In all fairness, Jahmyr Gibbs wound up posting a nice game (shocker)—but all production occurred in the pass game, where Javonte Williams remains mostly a non-factor.
Funny how good things happen when you add impact players like Jaelan Phillips to an already talented front-seven featuring studs Zack Baun and Jalen Carter. The Eagles caught up to their own preseason expectations, swallowing competition at the point of attack over the last month, boasting top-3 defensive marks in PPG (12.0), EPA/play (0.18), time of possession per drive (2:27), rushing success rate (69.4%), yards per rush (3.6), +20-yard carries (0) and explosive rush rate allowed (1.4%).
Dallas has shown they’ll abandon a ground game devoid of creativity either when it fails or they start trailing—I think we get a hint of both this weekend.
Bam Knight RB, ARI
CLEMONS: Yes, the more pass-happy style of the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett at the controls has something to do with it, but the Cardinals are also playing against the Jaguars, who currently sit second in the league in rush defense.
Over the last three games, they have allowed an average of 73 yards per game on the ground. That makes a back dependent on a touchdown, likely not a guy you want to rely on right now in the critical stretch of the season. Not to mention, he does not have the backfield to himself. Even if Emari Demercado is injured and can’t go, he still has Michael Carter nipping on his heels.
Darnell Mooney, WR, ATL
LAGHEZZA: Apologies in advance to Darnell Mooney, who was so profitable at points last season it kills me to fade him—especially as he’s about to assume a clear WR1 role in the dirty-dirty. Nevertheless, we’re betting as much against Kirk Cousins as anything.
Of 44 quarterbacks with +50 dropbacks, Cousins sits dead last in yards/attempt (4.8), first down/attempt (21.2%), TD rate (0.0%), and EPA vs Man (-0.64). Somehow, the tape may be even worse …
New Orleans’ CB combination of Alontae Taylor and Kool-Aid McKinstry’s also played better than most give credit for—NO’s secondary held Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Baker Mayfield under 175 yards with zero TD in the last month alone. Saints’ D is tackling well and limiting explosive plays, something they struggled with early on.
Maybe it's time to stick a fork in this falcon, I mean turkey—it’s done.
Bold Sit For Week 12 Fantasy Football
We can see the fantasy playoffs on the horizon. That means the urgency should be picking up anyone not undefeated in their league right now, and even if you are fortunate enough to be undefeated, keep applying pressure. Last week, my bold selections went bust. Roman Wilson remained on a milk carton somewhere outside of Pittsburgh, and Kyren Williams had a handy RB13 finish. Just remember that they are bold for a reason, and at this point, if you need help and you only have low ceiling options, GO BOLD!
Chase Brown, RB, CIN
CLEMONS: Brown has been trying to resuscitate his fantasy value over the past four weeks. After five straight weeks of sub-double-digit performances, he has turned in 11, 24 and consecutive 15-point weeks. If he were able to play the Steelers, Bears, and Jets every week, I might be more inclined to believe that this is sustainable, but that’s not reality.
They are playing New England this week and they boast the best rushing defense in the NFL. Cincy’s defense is still bad, which means they could be behind early. They will also be without Chase at receiver, which means the defense can pay more attention to Brown as a receiver out of the backfield. Smaller running lanes and more eyeballs on him will make it more difficult for him to produce another double-digit day.
John's Parting Start/Sit Week 12 Chart
Our piece wouldn’t be complete without my favorite research tool—whenever I’m in a pinch, this image is my favorite picture without time for a thousand words.
Want to win weekly fantasy matchups? Attach yourself to the highest-scoring game totals (furthest upper-right corner). Easy game.
NOTE: Chart reflects the last six weeks only.
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