Start 'Em, Sit 'Em For Week 16 Fantasy Football: Start Aaron Jones, Sit Ashton Jeanty

Football usually comes down to quarterback play, and the fantasy playoffs will likely be no different. Yes, you can have breakout performances that win you your week (shoutout to Kyle Pitts for putting up a massive lean-back-and-relax performance for fantasy managers who rolled with him in the first round of the playoffs), but if a quarterback gives you a bad performance, there is little to nothing you can do to make up for it. Those valuable points a quarterback gives you set the standard for what the week will look like. It is important to choose wisely.

If you are starting your playoffs this week, welcome to the win-or-go-home edition of fantasy football. If you are still alive, let’s get to the championship. To quote Start/Sit guru and my co-author John Laghezza: " Stats, matchups, spreadsheets and film-watching converge in the ultimate mind-bending experience of making the perfect fantasy playoff decisions. No time for green bananas at this point, people …"

Let's get into Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week 16.

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Players To Start In Week 16 Fantasy Football Playoffs

Bryce Young, QB, CAR

LAGHEZZA: My track record timing Bryce Young’s breakout could use some fine-tuning, having expected continuation from last year’s late-season surge. After losing three of four to kick off 2025 and getting benched for Andy Dalton of all people, it felt like the former overall number one pick’s sky was falling with good reason.

Fast forward to the present day, and the Panthers own a share of the NFC South divisional crown, with a real chance to make the playoffs for the first time in the Bryce Young era. I touted this stat earlier in the week, but it’s worth repeating to encapsulate the unreal up-and-down nature of Young’s season (more down than up)—13 games into 2025 and Young doesn’t have a single finish above 205 (x11) or below 325 (x2) passing yards. Wow.

Not to drag baseball into the conversation, but it's a perfect analog for the danger of broad-view statistics. If a player hits half his batted balls 100 mph (really hard) or 1 mph (really soft), describing that hitter archetype as 50th-percentile power completely lacks context. Long story long, it’s not about Young’s year-to-date statsheet nearly as much as properly timing the breakouts—he’s already up to three top-five positional finishes, with two in the last three weeks alone.

Speaking of which, Tampa’s starting to enter legendary pass funnel status. Given the choice between Vita Vea and Yaya Diaby up the middle or a decimated secondary falling apart at the seams, the choice is clear. Five of the last six QBs to face Tampa Bay threw for +270 yards and multiple TDs!

And Young's running more? Where do we get on line?

Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI

CLEMONS: If Jacoby Brissett has not proven to you that he is situation-proof, then you just refuse to believe what has been presented to you over and over again. Since taking over the starting job in Week 6, Brissett has not finished outside of the top 12. He only had three weeks in which he failed to pass 20 points. Those weeks he finished with 19.8, 19.4 and 18.7 points. He has been fantastic.

So what has been the catalyst for success? Volume. The Cardinals throw the ball out of necessity. If they have a chance to win the game, it is because they are seeing success in the passing attack. If they are not seeing success, then they will need to pass to try and get back in the game. Brissett has been unflappable and unwavering in this mission. If they turn the ball over, it does not affect him; he comes back out and keeps on throwing. His veteran savvy and confidence in his skills have benefited fantasy managers who have been smart enough to “Brissett-It and Forget-It!” No need to stop now.

Tyler Shough, QB, NO

CLEMONS: Shough has been playing good football over the past three weeks. He has been over 18 fantasy points the last three weeks, including a 22-point performance against Tampa Bay. He has been an effective passer and has shown that he has the ability to run the football.

But, let’s be real, the reason he is a great play this week is that they are playing the Jets. In Week 15, the Jets looked like a team already on the boat in Cancun, and it cost Steve Wilkes his job. The competition alone makes his floor much higher. The Saints are allowing him to play to really gauge what they have in him going forward into 2026, and that includes letting him throw the ball. Since their week 11 bye, Shough has thrown the football 43, 38, 20 and 32 times. Expect this to be the fourth game over 30 attempts.

Aaron Jones, RB, MIN

LAGHEZZA: May as well go out with a bang. I’ve always loved Aaron Jones as a reliable fantasy producer and dual-threat option, though there’s currently no denying it. We’ve gotten precisely none of that goodness this year. Sure, Jones missed a month to injury, but zero top-10 finishes entering Week 16? Downright shocking. Things couldn’t have gone worse for the Vikings through three months as a whole, though as they say, battleships don’t turn on a dime—two straight wins and suddenly, the sun’s poking through.

I wish I could say Jones ran away with the RB job upon returning from injury, but it hasn’t happened yet. As the more well-rounded player, Jones’ ability to block or properly read blitzes will keep him on the field as an insurance policy for J.J. McCarthy. Expect Kevin O’Connell to do everything in his power to keep his QB upright. Translation; Jones should continue seeing the lion’s share of touches.

In seven games back to a full complement of snaps, Jones ran well (4.7 YPC, 49% success, 10.7% explosive rush), with the same impressive target-earning ability as always (22.3%target/route). And if efficiency’s the only thing lacking for a fantasy explosion, the Giants will cure what ails you.

Is anyone worse at stopping the run over a two-month span? You be the judge …

-0.19 EPA/Rush: Last
51.4% Success Rate: Last
176.4 Rushing Yards Per Game: 31st
5.9 Yards Per Carry: 31st
2.38 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: Last
9 +20-Yard Carries: 31st
11.0% Explosive Rush Rate: T-31st

Players To Sit In Week 16 Fantasy Football Playoffs

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE

LAGHEZZA: Hold on one second, let me go shut off all my social media notifications in case I whiff on this. Last week, I couldn’t reach down deep enough and find the courage to warn everyone that Jahmyr Gibbs would disappoint in a tough matchup. However, I did mention it on the new Fantasy Football Weekly Podcast, which hits all your normal feeds for free every Friday, but I digress.

Henderson’s easily the more explosive back, that’s never been the point. I just want to be careful chasing last week’s output versus a Bills’ defense incapable of tackling strong runners all season. Four different RBs posted +149 rushing yards against them, and six backs scored at least two TDs.

With Rhamondre Stevenson air-dropped back into a shared role over New England’s last two games played, Henderson may still be the touch leader, but he’s trailing in snaps. Without a firm grasp on volume, my concern is that Baltimore’s stingy defense disallows the outlying efficiency at the heart of TreVeyon’s boom games.

Whenever a team boasts three or more impact players on the interior (like Roquan Smith, Travis Jones and Teddy Buchanan), it resonates throughout the entire unit’s play. Mix in the versatile Kyle Hamilton, and eureka, recipe for destruction. It should come as no surprise that not a single RB has eclipsed 80 rushing yards in three full months.

While three straight RBs reeled in at least six receptions, those 20 catches totaled fewer than 100 yards and just one score. Henderson’s going to get his looks Sunday, my question’s what they’re worth if only in short supply …

Ashton Jeanty, RB, LV

LAGHEZZA: Life’s too short and the stakes are too high to leave your fantasy fate in the hands of any Raiders. Finally, after several months of clinging desperately to Ashton Jeanty’s elite touch share, I’m here to capitulate. It’s over, Johnny.

Name a better case in point against luxury picks by an unserious team than Jeanty to the Raiders at the sixth overall pick. Don't confuse my disgust with the outcomes; Jeanty’s supremely talented, but without a proper line or scheme to protect him, it’s not happening again in 2025.

Not to mention Vegas’ O-line went from bad to horrific with the losses of Jackson Powers-Johnson and Kolton Miller. The Raiders sit dead last in yards before contact per rush (0.40), a staggering 65% worse than league average, and one of only two teams below the benchmark of 1.0.

Is Geno playing? If he does, will he be at 100%? And regardless of those two answers, does it even matter for the league’s lowest-scoring offense? My not-so-short answer against the league’s best top-scoring defense is a declarative and unequivocal no. Eject.

Bold Sits For Week 16 Fantasy Football Playoffs

Jaxson Dart, QB, NYG

CLEMONS: Jaxson Dart has been the best rookie quarterback in the league this season. He is definitely not without fault, but he has been able to get the job done for the Giants and fantasy managers. One of the keys to his relevance has been his rushing ability and scoring touchdowns. He can steal cheap points with his feet on the ground and high-leverage points by putting the ball in the endzone through the air or on the ground.

The problem for Dart and the Giants is the Vikings defense, and the guy who should be a future head coach candidate, Brian Flores. They are one of the best defenses in the league at limiting quarterback production. This season, they have only allowed 14 passing touchdowns and just one rushing touchdown from the quarterback position. They have an attacking style defense that will try to speed up the clock on Dart and force him to make bad decisions on pass plays or try to escape quicker than he needs to and corral him for a sack. The Vikings are allowing between 14 and 15 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. You can’t feel good about that being a floor for Dart.

Sam Darnold, QB, SEA (TNF)

CLEMONS: With all apologies to my awesome co-host on Fantasy Life, Kendall Valenzuela, Darnold cannot be trusted this week. He is playing the Rams, a team that he likely still has nightmares about at least twice a week. In Week 11, it was like “A Nightmare on Elm Street,” and the Rams were Freddy Krueger. They terrorized Darnold, and he threw four interceptions because of it. Should you expect him to play that poorly again? Probably not, but it does not mean he won't struggle.

Last season in the playoffs against the Rams, he scored 13.7 points, and his performances since the team’s week eight bye have been spotty at best. He has two weeks of elite top-five performances where he scored 23 or more points. He has one 17.7 points week and four weeks where he has scored 11 or fewer points, which includes two of the past three weeks. That is volatility I don’t subscribe to in the playoffs.