Value Shifts, Rookies on the Rise and More: We Drafted A New League In Week 5

It’s Week 5. Leagues finished drafting a month ago. But there are new roles, breakouts, busts, injuries -- we wanted to know if we got a room of players together to draft a league from scratch...what would it look like?

Of course, it’s not as fun if we just get 13 regular analysts together to do a regular draft, so we reached out to the NHLPA, who hooked us up with current and former NHL players — who also happen to be huge fantasy football aficionados. And we got Fantasy Life founder Matthew Berry to draft. And then we made this a Guillotine League, because it is the most fun way to play, PEOPLE!! (and it's very easy to start up a new league now and get in on the chop sweat every week). 

So just to recap: NHL players. Guillotine League. Week 5 Draft from scratch. I added my commentary throughout, then hit up some of the players for their thoughts on why they did what they did. Jack Eichel, for instance, told me his favorite pick was George Pickens — who he got with the eighth pick in the third round. These guys are just like us!!

Draft Order

1. Ryan Hartman (Minnesota Wild)
2. Matthew Berry
3. James Kozack (The Commish, not a hockey player)
4. Alex Tuch (Buffalo Sabres)
5. Nicholas Paul (Tampa Bay Lightning)
6. Vincent Trochek (New York Rangers)
7. Adam Lowry (Winnipeg Jets)
8. Jack Eichel (Vegas Golden Knights)
9. Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets - pretty good goalie, apparently)
10. Brenden Dillon (New Jersey Devils)
11. Ryan Strome (Anaheim Ducks)
12. Chris Campoli (Retired after 9 seasons in the NHL)
13. Zach Hyman (Edmonton Oilers)

Let's get into it!

Rounds 1-3

The Early Analysis

If you’re not first, you’re last 🥇

I was a little surprised to see Amon Ra St. Brown go in front of Puka Nacua. In a redraft league, St. Brown makes more sense, but in Guillotine Leagues, where you get a full point per reception and just need to stay out of last each week, I’d want to see Ryan Hartman grab Nacua there. He’s underperformed in the TD department compared to St. Brown (1 to 6), but has 16 more receptions than any other WR.

To Falcon or not to Falcon, that is the question… 🐦‍⬛

I was ready to pronounce Brenden Dillon as the sharpest player in the room for picking Drake London at 3.10. I mean, the guy is our consensus WR6 in the ROS ranks this week, so getting him in the third round was a massive steal. Then I remembered this is a Guillotine Draft, and the Falcons are on bye in Week 5. Not great for a league where your sole purpose is to just not be the worst team every week. So I asked him about it!

"I love it," Dillon said. "I plan on being in the mix much longer than Week 5 so yes — too valuable to pass up.”

He added this was his first time doing a Guillotine League and "wasn’t looking too hard into the bye weeks.” 

I don’t know how much farther down London could have fallen. He’s a legit WR1, and if Brenden’s team gets through this week, he’ll be in monster shape the rest of the way. Taking him in the late third is a somewhat reasonable gamble.

Bijan at the 3 🤨

Now, the Bijan pick does need addressing. James fully admitted to me he was nervous drafting with these NHL stars and forgot Atlanta was on a bye… or he was just being nice and trying to make everyone else look good. Either way, using the third overall pick on a guy who isn’t active the first week seems somewhat risky. I see Bijan as a late first pick this week, and maybe even better suited as a second-round pick (for Week 5).

Premium

Go FantasyLife+

Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.

Learn More

Riskiest starts go to… 🫣

Jets center Adam Lowry (1.7)

Derrick Henry could be a decent value in the second round, but with Henry and Barkley not being huge PPR backs, and Daniels coming off a leg injury, he’ll really need some TDs in Week 5 from his top two RBs. I asked Adam if he was a little worried:

"I think with Lamar out their whole game is give Henry the rock," he said. (More from Adam later on his Xavier Worthy snag)

Works for me!

Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck (1.9)

I love the start with Achane at 1.9. With Hill out, it’s arguable that he could be a top 5 player for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, he won’t be able to use Jacobs in Week 5 (bye) and then took Metcalf in Round 3, who is a little too TD-dependent for my liking in that spot for someone who just took an RB he can’t use this week.

Fun fact: Connor was PLAYING IN A GAME during the draft so he had an unnamed teammate draft for him. While I loved the start... he did not. We asked him to grade his sub's drafting:

“I give him a B because he didn’t get the three players I told him to go after!” Connor told us. And who were the three?

“Amon-Ra, Josh Allen and CMC. He was instructed to get one of them and came up empty!”

Best starts

Berry (1.02): Sorry, my hockey guys, but you let Matthew get the WR1 in PPR scoring and the only TE who has scored 12.0 or more PPR points in all four of his games to date. Add in a potential RB1 in Hampton, and that is about as solid a start as you could ask for out of the 1.2 spot.

Chris Campoli (1.12): I’m not entirely sold on Kyren Williams at 2.2, but Jefferson at 1.12 feels like a steal, and I love the Judkins pick at 3.12. The Browns' rookie has taken 75% of the possible RB touches for the Browns over the last two games.

Rounds 4-8

Best Values

Xavier Worthy (4.7) (Adam Lowry)

Via the Utilization Report, Worthy received a 24% target share in his first game back from injury, posting 83 yards on just five catches in Week 4. It’s getting a bit crowded in the KC receiving room, but Worthy’s first game back is a great indication that you’re getting a potential WR1/2 the rest of the way. Great pickup in Round 4. Was he surprised he got him so late?

"I was a little surprised but he’s such an injury risk with that shoulder." Adam said. "I almost regret taking Daniels in the 3rd though since my receivers are so average.”

Deebo Samuel (6.1) (Zach Hyman)

Round 6 seems very disrespectful to Samuel. He’s WR10 at the moment in full PPR scoring and has produced with and without Terry McLaurin (Quad) in the lineup. McLaurin was labeled week-to-week by his HC and could miss multiple more games, which would increase Samuel’s value even more. Love this spot for him. And Zach does, too.

"My favorite pick?Deebo or Quentin Johnson, I think Deebo's a great value. Also [Ed. Note: SPOILER ALERT] love my Lamar snag!"

Jake Ferguson (6.9) (Nicholas Paul)

Getting the TE1 in full PPR scoring through four weeks in round 6 shouldn’t be possible, but here we are. If this were a redraft, the Ferguson pick would still be great, but in a Guillotine League, where production from your TE can really help set you apart, it looks even better. I asked the Tampa Bay Center about it:

Me: Was Ferguson someone you were targeting or did his value in round 6 force you to take him?

Nicholas: I just wanted a TE that has a nice floor instead of one that’s "good or bust." I debated taking a TE early but was thinking after the first week of this league I’ll be able to bid on what I need, like a WR1, and [already] have a solid TE.”

Riskiest Picks

Tucker Kraft (6.3) and CeeDee Lamb (5.11) (Ryan Strome)

Someone check on Ryan Strome’s internet, please. He took Kraft (bye), who is on a bye in Week 5, in Round 6, one round after taking CeeDee Lamb, who is out multiple weeks. I’ll give him this: if he can somehow avoid the Chop in Week 5, he could set the rest of the way.

TreVeyon Henderson (4.10) and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (5.4) (Alex Tuch)

I’d like this strategy more from Alex Tuch if we were in a redraft league. Henderson and Croskey-Merritt both have tons of upside and potential to be serious stars in this league and fantasy studs. But both players are currently locked into three-way timeshares and topping out at around 10 touches per game. We can’t afford to wait in Guillotine Leagues where every week could be our last. For fourth and fifth round picks, I’d want more secure usage, and Travis Etienne (4.11) was just sitting there for him in the fourth round.

What were they thinking?

Isiah Pacheco 6.8 (Vincent Trochek)

I get that Pacheco found the end zone last week and the Chiefs' offense looked improved, but this is not a situation I want any part of, especially this high up in a Guillotine Draft. Pacheco is averaging just 3.9 YPC and 9.5 touches per game. I would have much rather seen the Rangers' power play specialist go with RJ Harvey or JK Dobbins here.

But who am I to question Vincent Trochek? I'm Geoff Freaking Ulrich, that's who! (I had to say that in the mirror a bunch before confronting him with a question about Pacheco.)

“I don’t love it," Vincent told me — about the pick, not my second-guessing! "I took a risk waiting on an RB2 until then and hated what RBs I saw if I waited even longer.”

Rounds 9-14

Week 5 NHLPA Draft – Final Verdicts

Brenden Dillon’s bye week dilemma

Brenden Dillon is either super sharp or just didn’t realize how important bye week management is in Guillotine Leagues. He took two Falcons (London and Pitts) and two Bears (Swift and Moore); two teams with Week 5 byes. If he gets through the first week, he’ll be in fantastic shape, but he's definitely in the running to be first chopped.

Zach Hyman’s 3 QB build?

Not only did the Oilers winger take three QBs, but one is on a bye Week 5, and another (Lamar Jackson) is hurt. A bit of a waste of draft capital in a league where surviving is the goal. Still, he did make up for it by grabbing some serious value at TE with Juwan Johnson at 14.1. Clean up the QB situation in Week 6, and he should be OK.

Standouts

Adam Lowry (1.7)

Remember when I said his start might be a little risky? Well, Lowry really dominated the rest of the draft. He got great value on Worthy (4.7) and Jordan Addison (8.7), and his pick of George Kittle at 9.7 could be a league-winning kind of move if he returns from injury at 100%. Add in some great late-round values like Franklin and Tucker, and you have to love the way his draft went.

Could go either way

Chris Campoli (1.12)

He followed up his solid start from above with some solid roster-building moves, like taking Jared Goff (8.2) and Daniel Jones (14.2) to secure the QB position. His only issue is that he invested higher draft capital in Rome Odunze (bye Week 5), but since he was picking from the 1.12, I like being aggressive there. If he gets past Week 5, his lineup should be in great shape for a longer run.

Connor Hellebuyck (1.09)

The same story applied to Connor Hellebuyck’s lineup. He used some big draft capital on Josh Jacobs at 2.6, but filled out the rest of his roster well. He’ll likely have to rely on Tony Pollard in Week 5, but after that, he could have smooth sailing with two big-time RBs to rely on and the current QB3 in FP per game in Patrick Mahomes.