Week 10 Bold Predictions: A Get-Right Game for Courtland Sutton
Danny Cross shares his bold predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season, including a big game for Courtland Sutton.
The injury gods wreaked havoc on our bold predictions last week, but the matchups were sound, as evidenced by big weeks for backups Kyle Monangai and Jacoby Brissett. Kimani Vidal disappointed in a smash spot, but we'll go back to the well with the Chargers in Week 10.
Let's get into the Week 10 bold predictions.
Justin Herbert Torches the Steelers
It might not sound all that bold to hype up the fantasy QB4 on the season, but Justin Herbert's recent body of work deserves some attention.
Jim Harbaugh's favorite person is the QB1 over the past four weeks, averaging 290 passing yards while throwing for 10 touchdowns and rushing for another. The team has gone 3-1 during this span, with Herbert passing for a season-high 420 yards and three TDs in a Week 7 loss to the Colts.
Since throttling down the passing offense in a Week 5 loss to the Commanders—wherein the team lost ascending rookie RB Omarion Hampton to an ankle injury—Los Angeles has leaned on Herbert and the team's impressive stable of pass-catchers to the tune of a 6.4% pass rate over expectation (fifth-highest). This four-game stretch happens to coincide with the emergence of rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden, who has racked up 377 yards and two TDs over the past four games.
Gadsden's rise has pushed the likes of Quentin Johnston (goose-egg in Week 8) and Keenan Allen (6-85-0 over his last two) down in the pecking order, but the offense has thrived with the addition of the 6-foot-5, 236-pound receiving TE. The team's passing volume is second only to the Bengals on the year, and Herbert's 7.9 YPA ranks seventh. To top it off, Herbert is rushing the ball more than ever, with 22 carries for 150 yards and a score over his last three contests.
In Week 10, the Chargers host the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers per game, the fifth-most to QBs, and the third-most to tight ends. On the year, Pittsburgh has allowed the most passing yards per game (278.3) and 14 TDs through the air against only six on the ground. The defense has the eighth-worst success rate in the league.
The Steelers are coming off a surprise win against the Colts, thanks in large part to turning over Daniel Jones five(!) times (three interceptions, two fumbles). But Jones still threw for a season-high 342 passing yards and a touchdown while rushing for another. After being docked -1 point five times, the resurgent QB still tallied 17.1 fantasy points.
Herbert has had his share of struggles in the turnover department as well, throwing four picks in the past three games. His 7.43% sack rate ranks 25th among QBs (min. 100 plays), and the Chargers' offensive line just lost star tackle Joe Alt for the season. The Steelers' defensive line will come after Herbert like it did Jones.
But, again, the Pittsburgh secondary plus the Chargers' willingness to pass early and often is the fantasy antidote to these issues (as it was for the Colts). And if the Steelers don't manage to pressure Herbert and/or force turnovers, this passing unit could show off an even greater upside than we've seen in recent weeks.
Bold prediction: Justin Herbert accounts for five TDs on Sunday night.
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Courtland Sutton Gets Right
Courtland Sutton has been a bit hit or miss this season, finishing as a top-17 receiver five times (including WR3 in Week 3), disappearing off the radar twice (WR88 and WR111), and coming in at a middling WR36 two times. The target shares tell the tale, with season-low figures of 12% and 14% in the biggest down weeks.
In Week 9, the veteran caught only one of six targets, though it did go for a 30-yard TD. Sutton's 18% target share last week trailed teammate Troy Franklin for the fourth straight game, dropping him below the second-year man for the season. From Weeks 6-9, Franklin saw 24% of the looks from Bo Nix compared to Sutton's 18%.
We know that Sutton can make the most of his opportunities, having scored four touchdowns on 38 receptions with a two-point conversion mixed in. For the year, the veteran WR is seeing 6.8 targets per game (WR35) and averages a respectable 14.1 expected fantasy points per game (WR22). When the volume comes his way, Sutton has racked up fantasy stats: In four games with eight or more targets, he averages 19.1 PPR points.
So why should we trust Bo Nix to feed the big guy? Start with the fact that he hasn't allowed Sutton to go hungry for long. After his previous two games with only a single catch, Nix looked Sutton's way eight and 10 times, accounting for two of Sutton's top three PPR finishes this season. Since a Week 6 dud against the Jets with one catch on three targets for 17 yards, Sutton has 22 targets over his last three.
Volume shouldn't be an issue unless this game gets out of hand, and it certainly could with the Broncos favored over the Raiders by 8.5 points. But the Las Vegas offense showed some heart last week with the return of Brock Bowers when Geno Smith threw for four touchdowns in an overtime loss to the Jaguars.
The Raiders have allowed the third-most receptions per game (14) to wide receivers this year and the fourth-most fantasy points. With Marvin Mims still working back from a concussion that kept him out in Week 8, Sutton should have an easy path to a half-dozen-plus catches with his typical big-play ability firmly on the table.
Bold prediction: Courtland Sutton finds the end zone twice en route to a top-10 PPR week.
Dalton Kincaid Celebrates in South Beach
Bills third-year tight end Dalton Kincaid has become Josh Allen's most dangerous option through the air. Kincaid (17%) trails both Khalil Shakir (21%) and Keon Coleman (19%) in target share but leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns despite missing a game with an oblique injury.
When Kincaid is on the field, he's being targeted more often than Coleman and further down the field than Shakir, who has a 3.8 aDOT—second-lowest among WRs who have run 100 routes. The Bills' wide receivers have specific roles, and they are not dangerous.
Kincaid, on the other hand, has brought down an efficient 27 of 33 targets for 411 yards and four touchdowns in only seven games, a 17-game pace of 65-998-10. Kincaid's 0.24 targets per route run trails only Brock Bowers (0.28) and Trey McBride (0.25) among TEs who have run 100 routes.
There are caveats to note. The Bills are leaning hard on the running game, leading the league in rushing yards per game (161.5) and ranking fourth in yards per carry (5.0). James Cook has handled 153 carries so far, second only to Jonathan Taylor. The Bills overall have a -1.5% pass rate over expected, which ranks 27th in the league, and that figure has fallen to 30th over the last two weeks when the team was smashing the Carolina Panthers and working with a lead against the Chiefs.
Still, Buffalo's passing offense is more than capable, and the team may very well have its choice of ways to score against the Dolphins in Week 10. Miami enters the game allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends and sixth-most to running backs. Last week, Ravens TEs tallied three touchdowns against the unit on only nine targets. The Dolphins haven't been nearly as bad against wide receivers, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game against the position.
Outside of Allen and Cook, the Bills' offense can be frustrating for fantasy purposes. But Kincaid has emerged in Year 3 as the most likely option in the passing game to pop off, and Miami looks like a legitimate enabler.
Bold prediction: Dalton Kincaid goes for 6-100-2 and an overall TE1 finish.
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