Week 11 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Even Bigger Target Share Coming to Trey McBride?

“All I can do right now is put on a brave face …”

The quote from Steve Carell keeps ringing in my head every Saturday as I prep for a full day of games. And I’ve got rosters that are locks for the playoffs. The vibes of resignation are because each week has kept us on our toes.

If injuries haven’t hindered my plans, then shifting workloads have been a problem. I’ll have confidence in an offense (the Colts), but then regression or a bad game has me questioning everything—also the Colts! It’s why start/sits can’t be automatic decisions. Ranks, projections and storylines still take precedence, which makes all the content the Fantasy Life crew has put together all the more important for Week 11.

Week 11 Top Fantasy Football Storylines

I get that we’re in the backend of the season, but I wanted to switch things up. As I mentioned in the intro, adjustments to opportunity (good or bad) are where we can find value. Or, they’re the impetus for making critical roster moves. Anyway, with all the news flying around yesterday, there were a few that stuck out as points of interest for Sunday.

Do We Love the Packers' Passing Game?

According to our rankers: No.

On the one hand, Tucker Kraft’s absence left a void in the offense for somebody (or multiple pass catchers) to fill. However, there’s a reason Luke Musgrave was down to 21.2% of the routes while Kraft was active. And even when Dontayvion Wicks was healthy, his 1.23 yards per route run weren’t impacting the offense. Besides, this game isn’t set up for a heavy passing script, anyway.

The Giants have allowed the sixth-most rushing YPG over the last six weeks. And the Packers are content to keep the ball in Josh Jacobs’ hands. The allure might be there to invest in a Green Bay pass catcher—Ian was even just talking about Jordan Love’s potential for a smash spot. But outside of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, we can’t trust anybody.

Jacoby Without His Marv-eratti

We take the “next man up” too far sometimes. Because a week ago, neither Michael Wilson nor Greg Dortch were starting options. Actually, they might not have even been on people’s benches. Anyway, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s appendicitis and facing the 49ers should get anyone’s attention. By any metric, they’re the “new Cowboys.”

PPR PPG Allowed (since Week 5): 2nd-most
Receiving Yards per Game Allowed: 4th-most
Passing Success Rate Allowed: 11th-highest

I get wanting to pick on an injury-riddled defense, but receivers aren’t the same as RBs when it comes to replacement talent. Timing and finesse between the WR and QB become a factor. Accordingly, I wasn’t surprised when I looked at the projections for the remaining target earners for Jacoby Brissett.

Given their previous usage rates, Trey McBride scoring multiple TDs along with either of Zonovan Knight or Emari Demercado getting in the end zone makes sense. Or, in other words, boosting Michael Wilson or Greg Dortch because of the situation only considers the ceiling without the possibility of no floor.

There’s a Kincaid-size Hole in Buffalo’s Offense

Let’s apply the same logic to the Bills.

Dalton Kincaid’s hamstring injury will keep him out of Buffalo’s Week 11 matchup against the Buccaneers. Coincidentally, Dwain was talking up Khalil Shakir earlier in the week, as a mid-range WR3.

“Shakir suffered a high-ankle sprain in training camp and started the season slowly with target shares of 19%, 4% and 15%. However, since then, he has reached a 23% target share or higher in five of the last six games. Over that span, he has a 26% target share with 13.4 fantasy points per game. This weekend, the Bills could be without Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) in a potential shootout with the Buccaneers. The Bills are tied for the highest team total on the slate at 27.5 points. Shakir is a mid-range WR3 option against Tampa Bay in Week 11.”

But think about that. You see the opportunity shares for Shakir. And those were with Kincaid. However, Kincaid will be gone and Shakir is just a mid-range WR3? We’re talking about an offense led by Josh Allen. Tampa is a pass-funnel defense. There has to be some fantasy production we can harness. However, again, sometimes we take the “next man up” concept too far.

We’ve seen what happens when Keon Coleman takes on a larger role. The phrase “results may vary” come to mind. And the guys after Coleman in the pecking order, from Dawson Knox to Curtis Samuel, all had to find ancillary roles behind Shakir and Kincaid. Facing the Buccaneers’ secondary is great, catching passes from the reigning MVP is even better, but the past usage for each of them should keep fantasy managers away this weekend.

The Weather Report

So, last week in Chicago should serve as a reminder regarding weather impacts. Poor conditions should lower our expectations and invite more uncertainty into the projections. But at the same time, over-anticipating the impact can hurt our fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams: +3% (dropback over expectation rate)
Jaxson Dart: +4%

As I’ve said in the past, each QB has their own reaction to the elements. Plus, the game script can override everything. I doubt Williams looked at the scoreboard in the fourth quarter, but then hesitated to throw to Luther Burden because of the wind. In other words, the forecast helps set the stage. Meanwhile, projected touches should keep most of the primary receiving options in our starting lineups.

Game: Ravens @ Browns
- Conditions: Wind, 22 mph (max), across the stadium
Game: Packers @ Giants
- Conditions: Wind, 18 mph (max), in line with the stadium
Game: Buccaneers @ Bills
- Conditions: Wind, 18 mph (max), in line with the stadium; Rain, 45% chance, 0.01 inches per hour (max)
Game: Bengals @ Steelers
- Conditions: Wind, 16 mph (max), in line with the stadium

BLUF: If you’ve already made plans for players in each of these games, keep them. Of the four, BAL-CLE and TB-BUF are the two carrying mild concern. However, in both, most of the skill players still profile as viable options within their respective tiers.

I’ll knock the easy ones out first.

Air flow across Acrisure Stadium is well below the threshold for concern. Besides, there’d need to be a tornado in the area for managers to leave Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins on their bench. Packers-Giants won’t feature the same talent level, but at least the weather shouldn’t be a factor.

Not only is MetLife Stadium one of the tallest structures, but it’s also enclosed. In essence, it acts like a natural barrier, forcing the wind either around or over it, lessening what the players experience on the field. Unfortunately, that won’t be the case for the Browns.

Windspeeds in Cleveland will likely carry the most attention, so let’s start there. At 22 mph from the WNW, the chance for fewer pass attempts and lower-quality throws increases due to the potential cross breeze.

Plus, to go with our historical takeaways, we already have a template of what’s possible. Dillon Gabriel played in similar conditions back in Week 7. His DBOE rate was -14% and he attempted just 7 passes while the game was still in contention. But I’d be cautious of full fading either passing attack.

Multiple turnovers from Tua Tagovailoa, one of which resulted in the Browns starting from the Dolphins' 2-yard line, and an explosive TD run from Quinshon Judkins tilted things in Cleveland’s favor. They had a two-score lead by halftime. We can’t anticipate the same environment will exist against the Ravens.

I’m not saying run out and roster Jerry Jeudy. But as our projections highlight, Harold Fannin and Mark Andrews are solid plays at TE. We’re not sitting Zay Flowers, either. Both sides feature their running game, but the mainstays within the aerial attacks should still be startable despite the wind. For Buffalo, the picture looks somewhat better.

The above is why I always consider speed and direction. Alignment at least indicates the QBs can work through ball placement issues despite the wind. Regardless, the mix of a breeze and the light rain is my concern. LAR-BAL had similar conditions, but Matthew Stafford was still throwing on 70.3% of the Rams’ plays before they ran up the score on the Ravens. It is worth noting his EPA per dropback on those throws was his second-lowest mark of the year (0.03). So, for somebody like Tez Johnson, I’d drop his ceiling outlook, but any other option should be fine for Week 11.