Week 13 Fantasy Football Smash Starts: Justin Herbert, Mark Andrews and More
Can we really go right back to Justin Herbert after what he did to our final scores in Week 11? Mark Drumheller not only says YES, but says it in ALL CAPS (figuratively)
Welcome to Week 13. Thanksgiving Week. The time of year when gratitude takes center stage allowing us to zero in on how fortunate we are to be crashing out over a couple yards, crazy coaching decisions, or a touchdown that was called back. We are blessed with a full day to enjoy the four F’s: Food, Football, Family, and Fantasy production.
I’m truly grateful to you for popping in to check out the Weekly Smash Starts that I have been cooking up all season. They could never rival your favorite Thanksgiving pie, but Hunter Henry gobbled up big numbers to put us in the win column in Week 12. Celebrate each victory. They all count.
All that being said, we are not gathering around this Thanksgiving to just pass the potatoes. We are here to smash the haters!
Come ride with me for my Week 13 Smash starts, so we can talk that talk at the table this year.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Smashes
Mark Andrews TE, Baltimore Ravens (the late Thanksgiving game)
Remember kids, when it’s your turn to list the things that you are grateful for, the Bengals defense better be booming from your lips. I don’t care if you catch a stray side-eye from the older generation. It builds character. Whispering it under your breath doesn’t count. Say it like you mean it.
The fantasy gods have been more than generous by blessing us with such a fruitful matchup, and we simply cannot afford to mess up a good thing. And facing the Cincinnati defense is a very good thing.
Last week, we dubbed Hunter Henry as a smash-start against Cincy. New England’s tight end feasted for 7 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown. Henry saw 10 targets (his most since Week 3) and his 21 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) was more than his total over the previous three weeks combined (15 FP).
Spotting that type of breakout potential is immensely valuable this time of year. It’s exactly why I leverage the Fantasy Life Defense vs. Position tool every week. The fantasy boost and target boost data points are vital when evaluating matchup-based ceilings.
This week it’s the Ravens turn, more specifically Mark Andrews. The Ravens’ tight end is coming off a low-output performance against the Jets, setting him up a huge bounceback.
Isaiah Likely’s presence shouldn’t cut too much into Andrews’ production. Likely only commanded three targets against the Jets, and has only produced 3+ fantasy points in one of eight starts this season.
The Ravens, winners of five straight, should be highly-motivated considering they are neck-and-neck with the Steelers in the AFC North race. Teams get up for divisional opponents, and the potential return of Joe Burrow could force Baltimore to stay aggressive the entire game.
From a data-perspective, Cincinnati is always SMASH-City. The defense is historically bad (32.7 PPG) and they allow the most points to tight ends by a wide margin. Get Andrews in your lineups.
Christian Watson WR, Green Bay Packers (the early Thanksgiving Game)
I get it. There is A LOT on the line. It’s a critical week in the fantasy world. Whether you are making your postseason push, or protecting your position in the playoffs - we want wins. Rolling out the consensus WR40 (ROS) as a Smash-Start is going to raise some eyebrows. But if you’re looking for a high-ceiling, breakout option at the wide-receiver position, you’re in the right place.
We don’t have to solve the puzzle that has become the Packers offense. I don’t care who the WR1 is? All I care about is who gives Green Bay the best chance to score points on Thanksgiving. That’s unquestionably Christain Watson. Matt Fleur wants nothing more than to beat the Lions on Thanksgiving. Based on how the Lions’ play defense (3rd-highest rate of man coverage), Watson has to be a big part of the gameplan.
Watson is Green Bay’s man-beater. His vertical speed is evidenced by 19.5 yards per completion. The Lions are giving up the fourth-most explosive pass plays this season. Jameis Winston just torched Detroit for 366 yards and guess who was the main beneficiary? Wan’Dale Robinson, New York’s most dangerous downfield threat. Robinson racked up 156 yards on nine receptions, including a 39-yd TD to kick off the scoring.
Watson has successfully hauled in 70% of his targets in his abbreviated season, and saw a season-high seven targets against the Vikings. I expect him to see even more volume against this suspect Lions secondary, setting him up to explode this Thanksgiving with a breakout performance.
Justin Herbert QB, Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday at 4:25pm ET)
Many fantasy managers, myself included, have a few more grays thanks to Justin Herbert. The Chargers signal-caller has always seemed to hover around the bottom of that second-tier. Just when you think he can elevate into the elite crowd, we end up with a game like last week.
Herbert put in his worst fantasy performance of the season as the Chargers were wrecked by the Jacksonville defense in a 35-6 loss. Herbert exited the non-competitive game early, posting only 81 passing yards on the day.
What comes down, must come up. Especially when the Silver and Black pops up on the schedule.
The Raiders most recently extended their losing streak to five games by dropping a 24-10 loss to the Shedeur Sanders-led Cleveland Browns. If it isn’t bad enough that a rookie quarterback, in his starting debut, hangs 24 on you... consider that it was only the second time all season Cleveland was able to muster 20+ points.
Prior to the Browns debacle, Pete Carroll’s defense surrendered four touchdown passes to Dak Prescott. I honestly don’t know what’s going on in Sin City, but I have to take advantage.
The Raiders have allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on multiple occasions.
- Week 3: Marcus Mariota | 20.3 FP
- Week 7: Patrick Mahomes | 26.2 FP
- Week 9: Trevor Lawrence | 21.2 FP
- Week 11: Dak Prescott | 24.3 FP
As you can see, the wide talent spread of quarterbacks demonstrates Herbert’s opportunity to shine this Sunday with decent protection. I’m aware of LA’s problems upfront, but the Raiders aren’t built to exploit them. The defense ranks 27th in sack percentage, and registered only one sack against Cleveland.
Herbert completed 70% of his passes for 242 yards the first time these teams met back in Week 2. He balled out for 25+ fantasy points on four occasions this season. The ceiling is there in the right match up, and it’s fair to question whether the Raiders will be dialed in at this point of the season.
