Week 14 Bold Predictions: Lamar Jackson Gets Back on Track

We found the overall RB2 in last week's bold predictions, and Ladd McConkey almost made us proud. Alas, Juwan Johnson's healthy volume did not translate to a top-12 fantasy finish.

We don't need to watch the tape this week. Here are the Week 14 bold predictions.

Lamar Jackson Gets Back on Track

Things did not go well for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night. The team committed five turnovers and mustered only two touchdowns against a struggling Bengals defense, in part because certain players decided to flip the ball over the goal line for touchbacks instead of scoring long TDs.

Jackson played a part in the meltdown, for sure, fumbling under pressure near his own goal line and missing multiple throws on the night. The two-time MVP rushed for only 27 yards on six carries, mostly scrambles. Over the past three games, he has gained only 48 total yards on the ground.

Fantasy managers (and Ravens fans) are rightfully pissed off about all of this. With the AFC North there for the taking, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have managed to shit the bed against the Bengals, who now have Joe Burrow on their heels, gunning for the division title with five games to play.

Still, this is Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh we're talking about. Some of Jackson's issues (especially the lack of rushing) can be attributed to the hamstring strain that cost him three games in the middle of the season. And the Ravens' defense has played much better in the second half of the season than the first. There's light at the end of the tunnel if Jackson can get back to form.

And that's where the Pittsburgh Steelers come in. After racing out to a 4-1 start and a commanding divisional lead, the Steelers have lost five of seven games. They couldn't get anything going on Sunday night against a struggling Bills defense, putting up just 166 total yards. Aaron Rodgers has tape on his nose and hasn't thrown for 250 yards in a game this season.

The Steelers have allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, largely against the pass, along with the fifth-most passing yards per game (247.4). The Pittsburgh defense is allowing plenty of success on the ground as well, ranking sixth-worst in EPA per rush, but comes in at just 16th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.7). This is a recipe for Baltimore to move the ball at will.

Jackson hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 10, but recall that he did toss four the previous week against Miami—the only forgiving defense he's seen over the past month besides the Bengals. At home in a rivalry game that could decide the division, expect Jackson to look like his usual self against the Steelers.

Bold prediction: Lamar Jackson accounts for four total TDs.

Chase Brown Runs Wild in Buffalo

Chase Brown's fantasy managers have had a rough year. Their early-round running back started slow, with only a single top-36 fantasy finish over the first month of the season. By the time the calendar flipped to October, Joe Burrow was hurt and the Bengals were starting two rookie guards. All seemed pretty much lost.

But something strange occurred—stranger than Joe Flacco playing out of his ass and talking about how awesome it is to eat alone. Joe Burrow returned from turf toe surgery well ahead of his expected 12-week window, and the Bengals' running game started to gel.

Over the past three weeks, Brown has led the league with 5.5 yards per carry and a 59.6% rushing success rate. The volume was massive for a two-game stretch after Samaje Perine left Week 9 with an injury, with Brown handling an 84% rush share and 16% target share in Weeks 11-12. Perine returned last week and cut into Brown's workload, but the performance still played: 15 carries for 78 yards and seven catches on as many targets for 35 (RB10).

Over the last three weeks, Brown has been the RB8 in PPR scoring—without a single touchdown. These things happen when your target totals look like this over the past month: 7, 4, 8, 14. The passing work in negative game scripts has helped Brown average the seventh-highest expected fantasy points (16.4) in the league this year.

With Burrow back at the helm, Brown looks to be recession-proof. The Bengals visit the Bills on Sunday as 5.5-point underdogs. If they get smashed, he'll rack up receiving work. If Cincinnati stays in the game, they'll be offering a heavy dose of Brown to Buffalo's third-worst unit in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RB rushing. If nothing else, Brown is likely to score considering the Bills have allowed a league-worst 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.

The Bengals disappeared from the NFL's radar for a bit, but Chase Brown quietly became exactly who fantasy managers hoped he would be back in August. Buffalo offers the perfect spot to witness what could have been.

Bold prediction: Chase Brown posts 150 all-purpose yards and a score.

Tyler Warren Takes Over

Tyler Warren's game log is a thing of beauty: consistent targets, spike weeks, and even a handful of rushing attempts. After starting his career with a scorching-hot start as the TE3 through seven weeks, the first-rounder simmered for a couple of games (9.3 and 7.6 fantasy points) before getting right back to business with 17.9, 19.5, and 11.2 points over his past three contests.

Last week, Warren found the end zone for the first time since Week 7, but no one seemed to notice the drought. Every week, this dude is either seeing 7+ targets or racking up 70 yards. Warren leads the position with 433 yards after the catch and is fourth in first-read target rate (21.7%). Life is good for a tackle-breaking machine in a low-aDOT role with Daniel Jones at the helm.

Coming off a tough loss to the Texans, the Colts visit a Jacksonville defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Jaguars have allowed an average of seven receptions per game to the position, which trails only Cincinnati's 7.2. They've also given up their fair share of touchdowns to tight ends, again trailing only the Bengals' astronomical figure.

Touchdowns per game allowed to TEs:

Cincinnati: 1.1
Five teams, including Jacksonville: 0.6

Interestingly, the Jaguars haven't faced a litany of star tight ends. But the ones they've come across have absolutely lit them up. Brock Bowers dropped a 40-burger with 12 catches for 127 yards and three touchdowns in Week 9. Travis Kelce (7 catches-61 yards-1 TD), Trey McBride (9-79-0), and Dalton Schultz (7-53-1) also finished as top-five fantasy tight ends against them.

In a battle for first place in the AFC South, expect a similar performance from the Colts' budding star tight end.

Bold prediction: Tyler Warren scores twice, finishes as TE1.

Week 14 Bold Predictions: Lamar Jackson Gets Back on Track

Lamar Jackson Gets Back on Track

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Chase Brown Runs Wild in Buffalo

Tyler Warren Takes Over

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