Week 14 Smash Starts For Fantasy Football: Matthew Stafford Cleared For Liftoff

Where I’m from, the calendar turning to December means three things are coming my way: the holidays, the traffic that comes with it and the fantasy playoffs! 

I have slowly submitted over the years to the notion that I can’t do anything about the traffic. At least outside of graciously embracing the opportunity to practice an elite level of patience. 

The fantasy playoffs? Now that’s an area where you can benefit from letting me grab the wheel. However, the job is not finished. First, we have to close out the regular season on a winning note. 

We have three smash-starts lined up for Week 14. There will be some that look like easy decisions, and some riskier shots for those of us with more challenging rosters. The goal remains the same as it has all season. Let’s dominate our opponent and SMASH our way to the playoffs.

Week 14 Fantasy Football Smash Starts

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

I don’t care if you skydive, zipline above gator-infested Everglades, or base jump the canyons in a squirrel suit. You ain’t livin’ until you are trusting Kyle Pitts with a shot at the fantasy playoffs on the line. 

Sure, it seems unlikely the once-dubbed generational talent will ever live up to the hype of being the fourth-overall pick in the draft. Most fantasy managers are begging the fantasy gods to allow him to match his rookie season production (1,026 yards). 

This year’s TE15 is averaging a modest 7.3 FPPG (0.5 PPR) for a 4-8 Falcons team led by its backup QB. Oh, did I mention he is facing one of the best defenses in the league this week? Is anyone sold yet? Probably not, but stay with me. 

There are a lot of reasons why our favorite tight end SMASH-start is flying under the radar. If Pitts is on your roster, don’t let the above prohibit you from trusting him this week. Despite Seattle’s overall success this season, there are exploitable holes that should make Pitts a valuable weapon combating this defense.

Seattle’s ability to get after the quarterback (first in pressure rate; seventh in sack %) should lead to Cousins’ utilizing the middle of the field with the quick-passing game. Add in the fact that Drake London isn’t likely to be at 100% (hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday), and the pieces start to fall in place for Pitts to see another nice spike in usage. Last week against the Jets, the fifth-year tight end turned a 26% target share into seven receptions for 82 yards. 

As strong as the Seattle defense is, its pass rush and strong secondary forces opponents to funnel passing production to the tight ends position. As a result, the Seahawks defense allows 12.8 FPPG (0.5 PPR) to tight ends—the sixth-highest mark in the league.

Opposing tight ends have also led their team in receiving yards five of the Seahawks past six games.  

• Week 7: Dalton Schultz (HOU), TE 
• Week 9: Zach Ertz (WAS), TE
• Week 10: Trey McBride (ARI), TE
• Week 11: Puka Nacua (LAR), WR 
• Week 12: Gunnar Helm (TEN), TE   
• Week 13: T.J. Hockenson (MIN), TE

It doesn’t hurt that the Falcons are at home against a defense traveling from the West Coast to play early on Sunday. The combination of the matchup, Seattle’s struggles containing the position, and the opportunity with London less than 100% pushes Pitts' ceiling into top-five territory. That’s a significant jump from his current spot in the rankings. Positive regression in terms of touchdown equity could propel Pitts into being the secret weapon that secures your playoff spot. Let’s SMASH!

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams 

The Carolina Panthers quickly put a pin in LA's reign as the team-to-beat in the NFC. It was a forgettable game for Stafford, who threw a pair of picks that also put Drake Maye in the driver’s seat of the NFL MVP race. There’s a saying in Hollywood: they build you up just to tear you down. With the Arizona Cardinals defense on deck, I don’t see Stafford staying down too long.  

Despite the Cardinals having respectable metrics defending the pass this season (19th pass/epa allowed), we have seen some of the better offenses (Seattle, San Francisco) move the ball at will against them in recent weeks. I’m confident Sean McVay can exploit the same vulnerabilities considering the Stafford-Adams connection is the hottest duo in football right now.

We are nearing the time of year where motivation starts to matter. The Cardinals have only enjoyed one win in their last ten games, and are currently in the midst of a four-game skid. 

The Rams are one of four teams atop the conference with nine wins. Every game is critical in terms of capturing the NFC West crown, as well as the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Situationally, this sets up as a spot where Stafford should erupt with a monster performance. 

While it might seem like a no-brainer to start the Rams signal-caller, his value isn’t just limited to deeper leagues. The former Super Bowl winner has rocketed past all but a few names as our consensus QB4 for this week.

Considering where Stafford went in drafts this summer, fantasy managers could be in a position where they have two solid quarterback options. Let’s not leave this guy on our bench. SMASH the start button. 

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

In case this is your first time visiting SMASH-town this season, I’ll send out a reminder to the room. In these parts, we are here for the tough decisions. So let’s get scary. 

He’s baaaack. 

Terry McLaurin returned from injury to post one of the most polarizing stat lines from Week 13. He exploded back into action for 7-96-1, earning managers who trusted him 19.1 fantasy points. His team-leading 14 targets were 10 more than the last time we saw him on the field in Week 8. 

McLaurin only averaged 5.25 targets per game prior to being sidelined. In addition, McLaurin’s increase in targets versus Denver occurred in a game that went deep into overtime, so it’s fair to splash some cold water on the probability of a repeat performance. 

It’s a solid concern, but here’s where I slide back in the pocket with a counterpunch that I’m expecting to land on Sunday. 

The Commanders aren’t up against the Broncos defense this time around. Since Week 6, Minnesota has been the NFL’s fourth-worst passing defense (0.168; Dropback EPA) while ranking 21st success rate allowed through the air. Brian Flores’ defense is constantly put into negative situations by the Vikings’ flailing offense, contributing to a league-leading 48% blitz-rate. Regardless of who is under center, the Commanders offense should see plenty of short fields. Minnesota’s aggression will leave a reliable vet like McLaurin some serious chances to make an impact. 

McLaurin comes in at WR24 in our rest of the season rankings. To put his value into the correct context, it’s a strong bet he outplays his Week 14 projections (8.7 FP), and finishes much closer to his Xfinity best ceiling (14.2 FP). 

If Jayden Daniels is back, it’s going to get scary for your opponent. We very well could see a repeat performance from last week (19.1 FP).

Join Our Newsletter

Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.

Email Address

Subscribe

By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.