Week 16 Early Fantasy Football Rankings: Trevor Lawrence, TreVeyon Henderson Keep Rising

Week 16 is here. It's time to win another playoff fantasy matchup, people!

What follows are my abbreviated early PPR ranks along with some key questions and answers ahead of this week's slate of action. Check out our Fantasy Life Rankings for full ranks from our squad of alleged expert rankers (code "Ian" for 20% off!).

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 16 Early Fantasy Football Rankings

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence is BALLING

Yes, Trevor Lawrence has benefited from facing the Cardinals, Titans, Colts and Jets over the last four weeks. Also yes, the 2021 NFL Draft's first overall pick is quite easily playing his best football of the season.

Overall, last week's 6-TD gem against the Jets was good for T-Law's single-best performance of his career in EPA per dropback, while Week 14's masterpiece against the Colts was the sixth-most efficient game of his career. Again: The matchups matter, but man, some of the throws have been absolutely ridiculous!

The results have also been quite nice in fantasy land: T-Law has ripped off five consecutive top-12 finishes and has worked as the QB3 in fantasy points per game (21.2!) since returning from the team's Week 8 bye. This high-end performance will really be tested in Week 16 against the Broncos' third-ranked scoring defense in Mile High, but Lawrence has proven enough to still earn QB13 status for me ahead of guys like C.J. Stroud, Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love, among others.

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Quick hits

QB4 Lamar Jackson: The Ravens didn't need to keep their foot on the gas last week, but it was another performance in which Jackson generally put his best foot forward. There have been some sheeshy moments over the last few weeks: Thanksgiving featured multiple near-miss TDs, Week 14 had the Isaiah Likely TD that apparently wasn't and Jackson's only INT on Sunday … hit Zay Flowers in the chest. Here's to hoping Lamar finally puts together a vintage big-time performance on Sunday night against the Patriots; he sure seems to be close to full health at this point.

QB5 Jacoby Brissett: Brissett's immovable force (scoring a shit ton of fantasy points) somehow penetrated the Texans' unstoppable object (not letting QBs score fantasy points). At this point I'm fully drinking the Kool-Aid and have Brissett as my highest-ranked QB that doesn't have the benefit of a fantasy-friendly rushing floor. After all, the man literally hasn't missed since taking over under center in Week 6.

• Week 6: 21.7 fantasy points (QB5)
• Week 7: 19.8 (QB12)
• Week 9: 22.8 (QB10)
• Week 10: 17.4 (QB13)
• Week 11: 23.9 (QB4)
• Week 12: 18.7 (QB8)
• Week 13: 20.6 (QB7)
• Week 14: 20 (QB11)
• Week 15: 21.6 (QB9)

QB10 Bo Nix: My eyes told me that Nix played the best football of his career during the Broncos' win over the Packers last Sunday–and the numbers nearly agree. Overall, Nix's +0.52 EPA per dropback was good for the third-most efficient performance of his young career. And hey, I'd venture to still say this was the best one when considering his combination of downfield DIMES and off-script goodness. This is a pretty wild one-game mixtape against a damn good defense!

QB11 Brock Purdy: Looked 100% healthy for the first time in a minute last Sunday on his way to dicing up the Titans for 295 yards and a trio of scores. Purdy is a DANGEROUS QB when he's able to move like this. Expect the good times to keep on rolling in (another) smashable matchup against the Colts' banged-up secondary next Monday night.

QB12 Jaxson Dart: Racked up 63 rushing yards on 9 carries against the Commanders, proving once again that Dart doesn't care if the world thinks he should play more conservatively. We'll see how that choice works out in the long term, but the strategy is quite fruitful in fantasy land in the meantime. While the track record of rookies dicing up Brian Flores' blitz-happy scheme isn't great, give Dart credit for posting above-average rankings in EPA per dropback (22nd among 48 QBs) and yards per attempt (16th) when blitzed this season.

QB15 Baker Mayfield: Averaged 8.1 yards per attempt last Thursday night in his first game of the season with all of his top four WRs aboard. It was the first time in which Mayfield averaged even seven yards per attempt since Week 6–funny how that works! I would still call you Superman if you felt crazy enough to rank Mayfield inside the position's top 12 ahead of Sunday's crucial NFC South matchup with the Panthers.

QB19 Marcus Mariota: The QB streamer of the week per Fantasy Life's always excellent weekly waiver wire column.

QB20 Caleb Williams: Made one of the best throws of the season on Sunday; it's truly wild how much arm talent Williams displays out of the pocket. Of course, the performance also marked just the second time that Williams completed at least 60% of his passes … since Week 3. Kudos to Williams for leading the Bears to a 10-4 record and making multiple WOW throws every week, but I struggle to rank him higher than a middling QB2 with consistent week-to-week efficiency far from a given inside an offense that always loves to run the football.

Running Back

Is it time to simply trust TreVeyon Henderson as an every-week RB1?

Probably! This was certainly the case while Rhamondre Stevenson was sidelined, but TreVeyon Henderson has still managed to rack up 22, 15 and 17 combined carries and targets in three games since Stevenson has returned to action.

It'd be a lot cooler if Hendo could handle more of an every-down role, but it's probably OK considering just how explosive the rookie has been this season. Overall, Henderson's average of 5.4 yards per carry ranks fourth among 43 RBs with 100+ rush attempts (Stevenson's 3.5 YPC ranks 42nd for those wondering), and nobody has more rushes of 50+ yards (4).

While a strong second half of the season doesn't necessarily mean Henderson was a great pick at ADP, it has been nice to see him put together so many big performances over the past two months.

• Weeks 1-7: 6.7 PPR points per game (RB47)
• Weeks 8-15: 18.8 (RB6)

Don't be surprised if more fantasy goodness is on the way in Sunday night's potential shootout against the Ravens.

Who was *this* close to having a much bigger Week 15?

The following players were tackled at the 1-yard line and did NOT score a TD on the same drive last week (pre-MNF):

Tackled at the 1-yard line and did NOT score a TD on the same drive:

• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
• Rams RB Blake Corum
• Texans RB Dare Ogunbowale
• Eagles RB Tank Bigsby
• Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan
• Titans WR Van Jefferson

Corum would go on to score later in the game anyway, making it four trips to the end zone in the last three games. Of course, this hasn't prevented Kyren Williams from still racking up plenty of fantasy points of his own: Williams has 13 TDs in 14 games this season and ranks as the RB9 in PPR points per game (16.1).

Up next is a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs. But then again, this Rams offense should probably be considered the class of the NFL at this point thanks to ranking fourth in EPA per dropback and second in EPA per rush on the season.

Quick hits

RB5 James Cook: Has scored 33 touchdowns in 33 games with the Bills during the last two seasons (including playoffs).

RB6 Josh Jacobs: Has scored 31 touchdowns in 31 games with the Packers during the last two seasons (including playoffs).

RB7 Travis Etienne: Last Sunday's trifecta of scores pushed ETN up to RB12 on the season in PPR points per game (15.8). Not too shabby for a guy who carried an RB37 ADP back in August!  Etienne is an elite RB1 the rest of the way with Bhayshul Tuten (finger) out for the remainder of the regular season.

RB19 Tyrone Tracy: Has played rather awesome in each of his last three fully healthy games:

• Week 11: 19-88-0 rushing, 4-51-0 receiving, 51% snaps, PPR RB13
• Week 12: 20-62-0 rushing, 3-68-0 receiving, 71% snaps, RB12
• Week 15: 15-70-1 rushing, 3-27-1 receiving, 77% snaps, RB5

RB20 Quinshon Judkins: His last 26 carries have gone for just 47 scoreless yards. Of course, the Browns' hellaciously banged-up offensive line deserves plenty of blame: No RB room has averaged fewer yards before contact per carry than the Browns (0.34) this season. Still, Judkins has slowed down in a major way recently after his fast start to the season.

• Weeks 1-7: 15.3 PPR points per game (RB14)
• Weeks 8-15: 9.7 (RB36)

Sunday's matchup against the Bills' 29th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position is the only reason why Judkins isn't ranked lower.

RB22 Devin Neal: This is contingent on:

1. Neal's hamstring injury not being an issue
2. Alvin Kamara (knee) remaining sidelined

If either factor changes, Audric Estime and Evan Hull will lead the way ahead of a winnable matchup against the Jets. Estime would get the slight lean in the ranks thanks to his slightly better Week 15 utilization, but neither RB will be more than a low-end RB3 option.

Saints Week 15 RB usage:

RB27 Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Racked up 96 rushing yards and a score with Chris Rodriguez (groin) sidelined in Week 15. That marked the first time the artist known as Bill reached the 70-yard mark or scored in a game since Week 5! This ranking is contingent on C-Rod remaining sidelined ahead of Saturday's matchup with the Jalen Carter-less Eagles—none of the Commanders' RBs will be recommended starts if Rodriguez is back in action.

RB29 Ashton Jeanty: Maybe this is one of those Monday ranks that I'll look back on come Wednesday and decide it was too harsh. But man: How many points do YOU think the Raiders will score against the Texans this Sunday? 10? 6? 0? This sad excuse for a professional offense has gained more than 300 total yards on one occasion since September ended. Jeanty has 61, 38 and 42 scoreless yards during his last three games. We can't even fully bank on big-time volume due to the offense's general inability to sustain drives. As much as Jeanty still looks like a quality real-life back, I got to give the nod to guys like Bill, Aaron Jones and even Tony Pollard at this point due to the reality that their offenses at least have a shot at scoring multiple TDs during any given week of action.

RB33 Michael Carter: Led this backfield with a surprisingly high 80% snap rate in Week 15 with Bam Knight (ankle) instantly sidelined and Emari Demercado seldom used in his first game back from injury. I would be more concerned about expecting Carter's usage to continue should Demercado string together some full practices this week, but for now he's deserving of mid-tier RB3 treatment inside an offense always capable of putting up points with Jacoby Brissett under center (a sentence I did NOT expect to be typing in 2025).

RB41 Kareem Hunt, RB42 Isiah Pacheco: The absence of Patrick Mahomes (ACL) takes away pretty much all semblance of high-end scoring upside from a Chiefs offense that wasn't exactly firing on all cylinders anyway. Throw in an injury-riddled offensive line and evolving usage, and this is a situation to stay away from at all costs against a Titans defense that is actually quite stout against the run thanks to run-stuffing interior defenders Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat.

Chiefs Week 15 RB usage:

Wide Receiver

Who have been the NFL's most-productive WRs during the last five weeks of the season?

The below chart denotes the top-five WRs in PPR points per game during Weeks 1-5, Weeks 6-10 and Weeks 11-15.

Gotta love fantasy football! Shoutout to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (x3) and Puka Nacua (x2) for appearing on multiple occasions, otherwise we're looking at a bunch of guys who have certainly been great, but haven't quite managed to maintain that same sort of weekly high-end efficiency.

Of course, Michael Wilson is proving capable of sitting at the big kid's table whenever blessed with the opportunity to work as the Cardinals' clear-cut No. 1 WR. His status as this week's WR7 is contingent on Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) remaining sidelined, although I'd be hard pressed to keep Wilson outside of my top 24 even with the return of Marv. Just look at these performances!

• Week 11 (no Marv): 15 receptions-185 yards-0 TD (18 targets), PPR WR1
• Week 12 (no Marv): 10-118-0 (15), WR9
• Week 13 (yes Marv): 3-36-0 (7), WR51
• Week 14 (no Marv): 11-142-2 (16), WR1
• Week 15 (no Marv): 5-54-1 (11), WR17

Yes, plenty of this production has been of the garbage time variety. Also yes, those points count the same in fantasy land, and Wilson also deserves credit for generally turning 50/50 balls into 70/30 situations: His 72.4% catch rate on contested catches trails only Puka (77%) among all WRs with 15+ contested targets this season.

Who left some serious meat on the bone in Week 15?

"Unrealized air yards" measure the total amount of air yards on incomplete targets. This helps identify players who had all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities, but they simply couldn't come up with completions for one reason or another.

Anyway, 10 players had at least 70 unrealized air yards in Week 15:

• Giants WR Darius Slayton (138)
• Packers WR Christian Watson (112)
• Bills WR Brandin Cooks (109)
• Patriots WR Mack Hollins (106)
• Cardinals WR Michael Wilson (105)
• Rams WR Davante Adams (100)
• Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (82)
• Titans WR Van Jefferson (75)
• Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson (74)
• Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (73)

Slayton has unfortunately had more than a few near-miss moments this season. Last week's big whoops was a dropped 35-yard TD. Still, the 10 targets were a season high, and it's clear Slayton is Jaxson Dart's preferred deep threat. He's a boom-or-bust WR4 ahead of Sunday's matchup against the Vikings.

Quick hits

WR2 Puka Nacua: Could see 30 targets on Thursday with Davante Adams (hamstring) expected to be sidelined. The Seahawks defense deserves credit for "limiting" Puka to 93 scoreless yards when they met back in Week 11; just realize there's only so much any defense can do against a WR the caliber of Puka when they're being unleashed like this.

WR9 Jameson Williams: Has worked as fantasy's WR12 in PPR points per game since Week 6 despite having two goose eggs along the way. Up next is a cozy home date against the Steelers' 30th-ranked defense in PPR points per game—I'm treating Jamo as a boom-or-boom WR1 in this golden spot.

WR10 Mike Evans, WR22 Chris Godwin, WR31 Emeka Egbuka: Evans needs to average a mere 243 yards per game during his final three games to reach 1,000 yards on the season. He got right back to working as Baker Mayfield's No. 1 target last Thursday, as unfortunately it was Egbuka who emerged as the odd man out in terms of route rate. The rookie has *one* top-30 performance in his last nine games, although Baker hasn't exactly consistently held up his end of the bargain during this stretch. Ultimately, all three players should win out in the majority of close start/sit decisions thanks to the reality that this Buccaneers passing attack sure feels dangerous with everyone healthy.

Buccaneers Week 15 WR usage:

WR12 Rashee Rice: Obviously downgraded without Patrick Mahomes (ACL), although the matchup against the Titans remains pristine, and Rice's low-AODT role carries a fantasy-friendly floor that not many can match at the position. You can only rank any mere mortal so low when they're looking at double-digit targets per game; the lowest I could see someone ranking Rice this week would be around the WR18 line with fellow WR1s with a red flag like Ladd McConkey, DK Metcalf and Zay Flowers.

WR15 George Pickens: 5-37-0 and 3-33-0 duds haven't exactly been what fantasy managers were hoping for, although reminder: We're still looking at the NFL's third-leading receiver (1,212 yards) here. It's fair to not include Pickens in our circle of trust ahead of a tough matchup with the ascending Chargers defense; just realize his big-play and jump-ball ability always makes him just one target away from coming through in a major way.

WR17 Zay Flowers: Scored his first TD since the third quarter of Week 1 last week. Hell yeah … although Flowers also dropped another TD and dropped a pass that was intercepted. Ultimately, Flowers' hiccups as a real-life receiver have generally been offset by a high-end target share: He's one of just eight receivers with 30% or more of their team's overall target share this season. Fire up Flowers as a mid-tier WR2 ahead of Sunday night's hopeful shootout with the Patriots.

WR19 Ladd McConkey, WR33 Keenan Allen: Have sputtered in recent weeks with Justin Herbert throwing for 81, 151, 139 and 210 yards, respectively, in his last four games. This is due in large part to the team's banged-up offensive line seldom affording Herbert many (any?) clean pockets: Only the Browns have allowed a higher pressure rate on the season. Good news: This Cowboys defense seems to be capable of bringing out the best in pretty much any QB. Nobody has allowed more passing yards (3,793) or TDs (31) this season—McConkey and Allen should have every chance to get back on track this Sunday if Herbert has even a little bit of time to throw, particularly if Quentin Johnston (groin) remains sidelined.

WR25 Ricky Pearsall, WR26 Jauan Jennings: Yes, it was Jennings who scored twice last week. Also yes, Pearsall led the way in targets (7 vs. 5) and yards (96 vs. 37), looking a LOT more like the early-season demon we saw before an unfortunate Week 4 knee injury. We did have three games of essentially nothing before the team's Week 14 bye; just realize Pearsall also struggled to play through the pain for portions of last season. The route-running maestro is a tough assignment for anyone when right—particularly for a banged-up Colts secondary that will continue to be without their top two corners in Charvarius Ward (concussion, IR) and Sauce Gardner (calf).

WR27 Justin Jefferson: Had a TD called back on an illegal formation penalty and dropped another. Not great, but damnit, another good matchup is on the horizon against the New York Football Giants. I couldn't blame anyone for ranking Jettas even lower than this, but at some point he and (an improving) J.J. McCarthy have to get on the same page, right? RIGHT?

WR37 DJ Moore, WR41 Luther Burden: DJM scored 2 TDs last Sunday after totaling *checks notes* 13 receiving yards in his previous two games combined. He'll get a further slight boost up the ranks should Rome Odunze (foot) and Burden (ankle) be sidelined for Saturday night's NFC North showdown with the Packers. Still, as great as the Caleb Williams flashes can be, this is an offense that hasn't cleared 230 passing yards in a game since Week 9—none of the involved WRs qualify as must-start options with the fantasy season on the line.

Tight End

Has Colby Parkinson earned high-end TE1 treatment?

Pretty close! The Rams TE1 has been on an absolute heater during his last six games.

Not having Tyler Higbee (knee, IR) in the picture has certainly helped. He is eligible to return ahead of Thursday night's matchup with the Seahawks. But if not? Wheels up for Parkinson against Seattle's 27th-ranked defense in PPR points per game to the position—especially with nominal goal-line threat Davante Adams (hamstring) not expected to suit up.

Additionally: Don't be surprised if rookie TE Terrance Ferguson gets the biggest usage bump with Adams sidelined as opposed to one of the team's backup WRs. Ferguson was so close to having a big Week 15—he was overthrown on a potential 38-yard TD and just barely couldn't maintain possession of a short goal-line score while going to the ground. It'd make sense if his season-high 71% route rate sticks without Adams, although Ferguson's TE26 rank reflects the reality that we're still talking about more of a DFS showdown/DEEP-league dart option here as opposed to someone who needs to be in starting lineups.

Quick hits

TE1 Trey McBride: The difference in PPR points per game between McBride (19.4) and TE2 Brock Bowers (14.7) is the same as Bowers and … TE15 Hunter Henry (9.9). McBride has more PPR points per game than all but four WRs. Wheels up for Sunday's matchup against the Falcons, and the ceiling might as well be the moon in Week 17 against the Bengals.

TE3 Kyle Pitts: Scored 45.6 PPR points last Thursday night—good for the fifth-best game by a TE EVER. Only Kellen Winslow Sr., Shannon Sharpe and Mike Ditka have posted better single-game fantasy performances. Pretty, pretty, pretty good—the good times should keep on rolling in a winnable matchup against the Cardinals in Week 16, although Drake London (knee) remaining sidelined would certainly help matters.

TE5 Harold Fannin: Has racked up 25 targets over the last two weeks, easily emerging as Shedeur Sanders' No. 1 pass-game option.

Browns target leaders in Weeks 12-15:

• Fannin (36 targets)
• Jerry Jeudy (16)
• Isaiah Bond (10)
• Quinshon Judkins (10)

But up next is a Bills defense that has allowed a league-low seven PPR points per game to opposing TEs. Only Mike Gesicki (20.6) and Travis Kelce (12.6) have cracked double digits against this unit, but then again, it's tough to overly bet against any TE looking at a workload of 10+ targets. Ultimately, I'm trusting the talent and volume over the matchup and only have Fannin behind fellow talented target hogs.

TE9 Dallas Goedert: Has scored 9 TDs this season, and 7 have been 6 or fewer yards. Last week produced 2 shovel pass scores, while Goedert actually dropped a potential third short TD. As much as this pisses off Saquon Barkley fantasy managers, Goedert is a weekly threat for multiple scores—especially against a Commanders defense that has allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs this season.

TE12 Tyler Warren: Earned a team-high 6 targets in Philip Rivers' first start of 2025. Now, the entire upside of the passing game is basically shot with the noodle-armed Grandpa under center, but Warren's RPO-friendly and low-aDOT role does make him the projected No. 1 option, and there are short-yardage/goal-line possibilities as a rusher here as well. Note that the banged-up 49ers defense ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback since losing All-World LB Fred Warner back in Week 6.

TE13 Dalton Kincaid, TE23 Dawson Knox: The Bills have split this usage nearly down the middle over the past two weeks, with Knox actually emerging as the more productive option. I'd expect Kincaid—who has been AWESOME all season in any efficiency metric you want to look at—taking back the lead at some point, but I might have this gap too wide in the short term.

TE16 Mike Gesicki: Could be looking at something close to a full-time role should both Tee Higgins (concussion) and Noah Fant (ankle) be sidelined in Week 16. Get this: Gesicki hasn't played a snap as an inline TE since Week 13, as the Bengals have more or less made him the starting big slot due to these injuries. In Week 14, that still produced only a 47% route rate, but Week 15's 75% mark was a strong step in the right direction.

TE17 Darren Waller: Gets the golden Bengals matchup in Week 16; just realize the Dolphins have been a bit flimsy with their split between Waller and Greg Dulcich. Two TDs are on the table … but so are 2 targets.

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