Week 16 Fantasy Football Smash Starts: A.J. Brown and Joe Burrow Bounce Back With Big Performances
Mark Drumheller provides his predictions for players who will be smash starts for fantasy football in Week 16, including A.J. Brown and Joe Burrow.
Welcome to the big money week. Week 16. The fantasy football semifinals. This is the week that separates those destined to compete for a fantasy football title from the would’ve, should’ve, could’ve beens in the group chat.
I will be unleashing three SMASH-starts to ensure we end up on the right side of fantasy lore while taking one giant step toward the trophy.
Oh, and since we are on the topic of moolah. Don’t forget that this is the time of year where players get a little extra motivation to hurdle over their contract incentives. Information is king, and Matt LaMarca has you covered in his detailed analysis of the players (and contract incentives) you need to know here.
Now, let’s blow onto our fists for good luck and get SMASHING!
Week 16 Smash Starts for Fantasy Football
Joe Burrow QB, Cincinnati Bengals
The best part about the NFL is that every damn season is really its own unique journey. You see the rise and fall of some of our favorite players. Unfortunate injuries and surprise benching become unexpected opportunities for someone else. And the cycle continues …
This column is a great reminder, and a reflection of sorts, to the wild spins and turns each season whips us through. Weekly, we are so deep in the weeds that by the time we pop our heads up it’s already Week 16 and it's hard to believe where we have been.
Imagine we are back in early September for a quick second. Picture my future self is explaining to me the importance of convincing my audience to start Joe Burrow in Week 16 against the Miami Dolphins? It would have seemed like a no-brainer. Joe Burrow was as close to an auto-start as you could get.
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Fast-forward a few months (where Burrow himself was mostly sidelined with turf toe) and here we are. The Bengals offense hasn’t been the fantasy juggernaut we have all quickly become accustomed to. Burrow’s position as the 27th-ranked QB (13.6 FPG) after seeing the field for only five games, and Bengals coming off a 24-0 shutout loss to the Ravens, makes him an incredibly valuable buy-low candidate for one of the biggest weeks of the year.
I don’t care what the Bengals record is. Winter is here and Joe Burrrr is a prime spot for a massive bounceback—even if the winter weather will have a wind chill of 81 degrees in balmy South Florida.
What sweetens the deal is that the opponent, the Miami Dolphins, are in the midst of cleaning out their closet while dealing with their own disappointment. Mike McDaniel benched Tua Tagovailoa, and the other side of the ball was never the team’s strong suit. A disinterested defense that ranks 26th in dropback EPA allowed is the perfect target for Burrow to take aim at this Sunday.
Prior to last week’s dud against the Ravens, Burrow's previous two games yielded 19.2 and 23.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) respectively. Fantasy Life Xfinity-best projections models have Burrow’s ceiling eclipsing the 20-point mark yet again. Unless you have a top-3 option at QB, Joe Burrow is your guy. SMASH the start button!
Darren Waller TE, Miami Dolphins
Semifinals week is not the time to get cute. Everyone who has been in lockstep with us for the duration of the season, knows exactly why we are heading in this direction. It’s simple. You get this far, and you have to dance with one who brought you. And the Cincinnati defense brought us a lot of TE points this year. So, you better believe I’m going to feature a high-upside tight end to SMASH the Bengals defense.
Darren Waller isn’t just a random player that I’m hoping benefits off a susceptible unit. Last week’s 7-66-2 performance revealed two important insights: Miami’s willingness to make Waller the focal point of the offense and his ability to deliver in a huge way when called upon.
The Dolphins dialed up Waller’s number for a team-leading 8 targets against a Steelers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Guess who allows the most? Our beloved Bengals. You’re lying if you tell me the stats below don’t scream SMASH!!
Bengals Defense:
- Points per game: 31.2 (32nd)
- EPA/Pass: 0.22 (t-last)
- Red Zone EPA/Pass: .34 (30th)
- Red Zone Passing TDs: 26 (32nd)
- Fantasy Points Per Game allowed vs. TE: 19.1 (32nd)
Don’t let the pivot to Quinn Ewers deter you from taking advantage of our beloved Bengals one more time. Just last week, Pittsburgh provided proof of concept that resulted in 22.1 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) for Waller. Now it’s our job to shove him into our lineup as a SMASH-start.
A.J. Brown WR, Philadelphia Eagles
We are going back to the Eagles and back to the Commanders defense. This time around, I’m targeting #11 to produce the monster statline that we hoped Wan’Dale Robinson would deliver us last week.
A.J. Brown’s polarizing 2025 has been a ride. It began with a slow enough start to send me home from my Guillotine leagues™️, looking like the headless horseman well before Halloween. However, the sharpest fantasy managers know amnesia is a prerequisite for success, and I’m here to hold trophies not grudges. It’s an easy decision to bury the hatchet, and lock A.J. Brown into my lineups.
After a 31-0 route, it appears the Raiders disinterested defense was the perfect remedy for the Eagles aerial attack. Philly’s QBs completed 83% of their passes and Jalen Hurts added 3 more passing touchdowns to his season total. In a game that never really got serious, the Eagles’ WR1 still flipped his only 2 targets into 11.1 fantasy points.
Brown’s “floor game” snapped an impressive three-week run where he has been churning out fantasy gold with serious consistency. In Weeks 12-14, the Eagles WR1 popped off three straight games with 10+ targets and 100+ receiving yards. His 3 touchdowns fueled his 21.4 FP average in PPR leagues during that span.
With underlying factors like this, I’m betting Brown gets back to beating secondaries this Saturday.
If Las Vegas was the medicine the Eagles passing game needed, they are about to get a double-dose of the good stuff with the Commanders up next. Washington’s pass defense can be found in the league basement (t-31st), sharing a spot on the sofa with Cincinnati.
Brown’s late-season surge has moved him into the Top 10 in scoring among WRs (158; 0.5 PPR), but his 16 FPG average since Week 7 puts him in elite company. Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads all receivers this year with an 18.1 average per game. Roll in a +2.4 fantasy boost from the Washington defense and we are cooking with gas.
Brown’s current high-floor, high-ceiling profile makes him the perfect SMASH start for the win-or-go-home dynamic of the semifinals.
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