Week 18 Fantasy Football Top Targets: Lamar Jackson Will Make a Big Season-Ending Splash
John Laghezza identifies the top fantasy football targets for Week 18, traditionally the weirdest week of the NFL regular season.
Congratulations to everyone out there who brought home fantasy hardware for a season well-fought. Sure, most normal leagues may be wrapped up, but not all.
As always, we got you covered at Fantasy Life … So, for the truly dedicated one-percenters involved in roto, daily or 18-week formats, the best and only way to go out is with a big splash!
Week 18 Top Fantasy Football Targets
TOP SPLASH QUARTERBACK
Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT
It’s no secret my work’s usually set on an analytical foundation before busting a left turn down narrative street. This time around, spreadsheets meet storybooks — starring our protagonist Lamar Demeatrice Jackson Jr., the recently beleaguered two-time NFL Most Valuable Player. Fairy tale loading …
For my money, there isn’t a better developing hero reclamation arc anywhere in the league than Lamar’s. Baltimore recreated a struggling offense back into a true threat, while backup QB Tyler Huntley stepped in to lead Raven wins against the Bears and Packers. The troops are rallying.
You could see the abject disappointment in Jackson’s face when a back injury kept him out on Saturday night. But fear not, King Henry slayed Green Bay’s dairy dragon with a ridiculous (36-216-4) effort. Like I said, there’s a Hollywood feel forming around this team.
Conversely, Pittsburgh’s playoff odds took a sharp turn southward when DK Metcalf paid the toll to feed the troll. With literally no explosivity left in the WR room without Metcalf (or Calvin Austin III for that matter), Cleveland altered its defensive approach. The Browns throttled all blitzes to stack the box and limit the Steelers’ effective run game, forcing them to attack vertically. Sounds familiar.
I’m expecting HC John Harbaugh to implement similar schemes, putting the game in a healthy Lamar Jackson’s hands. Yes, his fantasy season overall will go down as a letdown, but remember—through three weeks he led all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring by over 3.0 points a game. That’s incredible! If he’s active, Jackson's rolling into Steel City and making a big splash.
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TOP SPLASH RUNNING BACK
Rico Dowdle, CAR at TB
It’s so tempting to chase supposed “weak” matchups looking for blowup games, but relying on Week 18 to stay rational can be a cruel mistress. Not that some weird combination of third-stringers can’t go nuclear out of nowhere—it’s just always easier to predict utilization when an organization’s goal of winning remains clear. No coaches want to needlessly get players hurt either.
Try as they might, Tampa’s developing some variant of seasonal allergy to victories. Baker’s Bucs own just a lone win in their last eight attempts, defeating only the lowly Cardinals amidst a two-month-long losing streak of their own. TB’s down bad and as a lifetime Mayfield fan, sadly I think it continues through the season finale.
Carolina’s outlook on offense leaves little to the imagination. Run, run, then run some more. Generally that’s a tough matchup heading to TB, whose track record as a pass funnel has followed them around for years. However, injuries are piling up and it’s starting to show.
First, star CB Jamel Dean left in the second half (shoulder) against Miami, and now they could potentially lose starting LBs Haason Reddick and Anthony Nelson, seriously weakening the Bucs' interior—one that just allowed the Dolphins’ RB tandem to go off for 6.0 yards per carry in a critical spot Sunday.
Plus, after another sub-par performance under center from Bryce Young, you know Dave Canales is about to do everything in his power to hide the former No. 1 draft pick. Carolina’s run game failing when they met TB two weeks ago was enabled by a lack of dedication while abandoning the early misdirections that worked so well. My inclination is that they right the ship with their best foot forward when the chips are down.
Rico Dowdle’s name must be in bold marker atop the Panthers’ attack plan if they’re serious about winning this game. He’s the more effective runner by all objective measures (EPA, YPC, Success Rate) and commanding the lion’s share of the backfield work—including a really impressive 29.4% target/route against Seattle.
Give me 20+ touches for 100+ scrimmage yards and a 1+ TDs in a tightly contested dogfight Saturday afternoon.
TOP SPLASH WIDE RECEIVER
Khalil Shakir, BUF vs NYJ
A Buffalo Bills … receiver? No, it’s not the leftover egg nog talking. Joe Brady finally decided it’s OK to play your best guys full time. Believe it or not, Khalil Shakir’s 93% route participation is the first time a Bills’ WR eclipse 85% in 16 weeks. Sixteen! And the guy running those routes can’t even sniff the field as a healthy scratch.
Shakir’s easily Buffalo’s best target earner, entering a high-leverage game with AFC seeding on the line (BUF can overtake the No. 5 seed with a win plus HOU and LAC losses). He’s got more than double the targets and catches of any other WR in the softest matchup imaginable—the Jets just allowed 6 catches for 107 yards and all 5 passing TDs from the slot Sunday.
Statement game on deck. Remember, everyone gets home against Gang Green.
TOP SPLASH TIGHT END
A.J. Barner, SEA at SF
Tight end’s always such a funny position to forecast. On one hand, some scrutinize every advanced statistic looking for the great undiscovered edge (spoiler, it doesn’t exist). Meanwhile, others have had so many of those same processes implode, TE production’s deemed completely random—unpredictable as a coin flip.
My best answer lies somewhere in the middle, with a lean toward Vegas’ over/under plus average game total. Early on in 2025 that meant chasing the Bengals and Cowboys’ unique mix of prolific offenses backed by terribly porous defenses. Since Week 9 however, that honor now goes to San Francisco—no one’s been involved in more total scoring since (58.5 PPG).
Seattle’s defense may rock, but Matthew Stafford just threw for 457 yards with 3 TDs and the over’s already sitting at 50, aka the benchmark for shootouts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s going to get his as an inevitability, but there’s room for at least one more at the inn.
Since TE Elijah Moore got banged up Week 13, counterpart AJ Barner is the Seahawks’ pass game’s clear second option—ahead of even WR2 Cooper Kupp in targets, receptions, yards and scores during that timeframe. Vegas projects the Seahawks for 24 points as a dog, so we’re implying all the game script we need to get a big splash from the big second-year TE out of Michigan
Honorable Week 18 Splash Play Mentions If We’re Getting Weird
QB: Jaxson Dart, NYG at DAL
RB: Malik Davis, DAL vs. NYG
WR: DJ Moore, CHI vs. DET
TE: Chig Okonkwo, TEN at JAX
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