Week 4 DvP for Fantasy Football: RB Matchups, Jordan Love and More

Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week (our DvP Tool helps): Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 4 Fantasy Football Matchup Advantages

Explosions in the sky: Jordan Love is poised for HUGE things

No passing game is set up better than the Packers in terms of combined explosive play rate.

Now, Week 3's shocking upset loss to Myles Garrett and the Browns certainly wasn't ideal, but Jordan Love was previously looking a lot like one of the game's more-efficient QBs on his way to torching the Commanders and Lions. Up next is a Cowboys defense that has struggled to create negative plays (30th in Havoc) and cover opposing wideouts (27th in PFF coverage grade).

 Love comes in as my QB8 (tied for highest among Fantasy Life rankers) and is someone I'd start ahead of guys like Daniel Jones, Bo Nix and Baker Mayfield among others.

Explosions in the sky: The Colts, Ravens, Vikings, Texans and Panthers are also set up quite well in their quest to create big plays in the passing game. That said: Bryce Young's matchup against the Patriots looks quite a bit worse on paper now that No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is tentatively expected to make his season debut. Stud rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan (calf) is good enough to win anyway, but it's tough to exactly feel great about anyone involved in this uneven (to be nice) passing game regardless of the matchup.

It's 2025, guys, get it together: The Eagles, Saints, Bengals and Cowboys stand out as the offenses least expected to produce some explosive chunk gains through the air. It's hard to not be concerned about this Dallas offense at this point: No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb (hamstring) joins C Cooper Beebe (ankle) and RG Tyler Booker (ankle) on the sideline, leaving Dak Prescott and company VERY low on star power ahead of Sunday night's Micah Parsons Bowl.

The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Weeks 1-3.

The top-four RBs feature:

Rams RB Kyren Williams: Averaging 20.7 opportunities per game in his usual role as Sean McVay's bell cow back. Indy has already surrendered solid days at the office to De'Von Achane (PPR RB10), J.K. Dobbins (RB17) and Tony Pollard (RB16) alike.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry: Has three fumbles on 43 touches this season after having three on … 694 touches during the 2023 and 2024 seasons. That said: Henry is still averaging a robust 5.9 yards per carry and is set up fine enough against a Chiefs defense that didn't exactly shut down Saquon Barkley (RB13) or Cam Skattebo (RB5) during their last two games.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara: The Bills have allowed the second-highest target share to opposing RBs this season and are surrendering a league-worst 6.2 yards per carry. Of course, King Henry going bonkers in Week 1 is skewing that latter stat a bit, but both Achane (RB12) and Ollie Gordon (RB27) managed to put forward solid numbers last week. It will certainly help matters for Kamara if DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano remain sidelined.

Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins: Saw a boost in utilization last week after Tyler Badie was mostly phased out of the offense. While it'd make sense if RJ Harvey gets more involved at some point, Dobbins is averaging 15.7 opportunities per game and is set up rather brilliantly as a 7.5-point home favorite against the Bengals' 26th-ranked scoring defense.

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature James Cook, Bucky Irving and whoever the hell winds up leading this Patriots backfield. Practice order reports indicate that man could be TreVeyon Henderson, but it's still tough to be overly optimistic at least for this week. Henderson is the recommended play from the backfield; just realize he comes in only as the RB30 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks.

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Bengals, Panthers, Packers and Giants this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. The sledding has been particularly tough for Chase Brown, who is averaging just a tick under two yards per carry behind the league's 31st-ranked offensive line in RB rush yards before contact per carry.

Could Drake Maye have all day to throw this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined Weeks 1-3 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

Overall, only the Dolphins have created less down-to-down havoc than the Panthers this season. This should be a nice change of pace for Drake Maye, who currently has 16 total sacks, interceptions and fumbles through three weeks—tied for the second most in the NFL behind only Cam Ward (18).

Of course, even a few too many negative plays haven't stopped Maye from racking up the seventh-most fantasy points among all QBs. Rushing yards continue to be a cheat code of sorts at the position.

QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions (get it? Under pressure?) include: Jake Browning, Ward and Lamar Jackson. Seeing Lamar here really is wild: Only Ward has taken more sacks this season, and Jackson's 13.8% sack rate is well above his previous career-worst mark of 9.1%. Wild stat from Steve Palazzolo: Lamar has taken five sacks in the red zone this season—the rest of the league has 16!

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week: Well, the numbers say Josh Allen, Bo Nix and Tua Tagovailoa could join Maye as the week's top QBs who should have clean pockets on more dropbacks than not. Here's to hoping this helps Nix snap out of his early-season slump: PFF has graded the second-year talent as the league's worst QB through three weeks, and he left a LOT of yards on the field in Week 3 specifically.

 Are the Raiders willing to let Geno Smith cook?

I hope so! Geno has the week's second-best matchup in terms of combined pass yards per dropback behind only Love.

While Geno's Monday night disaster against the Chargers in Week 2 left a sour taste in the mouths of his truthers (pause), he's one of just six QBs with an average target depth north of 9: The man is an ethical hooper willing to consistently test defenses downfield more than just about anyone, and the result has been not one but TWO top-24 WRs in Tre Tucker (PPR WR5) and Jakobi Meyers (WR22).

Up next is a Bears defense that ranks just 29th in PFF's team coverage grade and continues to have all sorts of key contributors banged up. Geno is my QB13 on the week—highest of all the Fantasy Life rankers.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the … Bills, Bears and Colts. The artist known as Indiana Jones has somehow taken just two sacks through three weeks while committing *zero* turnovers! Shoutout to head coach Shane Steichen for featuring play-action and pre-snap shift/motion at rates akin to some of the league's best-schemed offenses.

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Titans, Saints, Commanders and Cowboys profile as the bottom-four passing attacks. Obviously Washington could get a major boost in the form of Jayden Daniels (knee), but the Falcons do deserve credit for their hot early-season start: Neither the Vikings nor Panthers managed to reach even 225 total yards over the last two weeks, and only the Vikings, Jaguars, Packers and Chargers have a better season-long mark in EPA allowed per play.

Get your popcorn ready for Chiefs-Ravens

We don't need fancy numbers to explain why Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson squaring off in a rematch of last year's season-opening thriller is exciting, but hey, why not provide some anyway!

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Weeks 1-3 performance.

Lamar is just 1-5 all time against the Chiefs, but this version of Patrick Mahomes and company certainly doesn't seem as lethal as past editions. Pretty much the only consistent high-end feature of this Kansas City offense has been Mahomes' scrambling ability: The man leads all QBs in rushing yards (125) this season and is on pace for 708 rushing yards this season! Mahomes has never reached even 400 yards in a season previously!

Particularly impressive has been the timeliness of some of Mahomes' scrambles. He's converted all four of his third-down scrambles into first downs this season and possesses an NFL-best 70.7% first-down rush rate when taking off on third down since entering the league. Josh Allen is the only other QB even close.

Underdog watch: There are six teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Buccaneers (+3.5), Panthers (+5.5), Jaguars (+3.5), Colts (+3.5), Bears (+1.5) and the Jets (+2.5).

Blowout alert: The Chargers, Bills, Lions, Packers and the Broncos rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.

Shootout city: Other than the Chiefs-Ravens matchup, Jets-Dolphins, Packers-Cowboys and Saints-Bills boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Vikings-Steelers, Bengals-Broncos, and Titans-Texans profile as the three matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.

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