Week 8 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report: Explosive Games Incoming Josh Allen and Derrick Henry

Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 8 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report

Xxplosive: Derrick Henry eruption incoming?

The below chart denotes the combined explosive pass (15+ yards) and run (10+ yards) rates in every Week 8 matchup. Example: The Dolphins passing attack is looking ROUGH against the Falcons, while the Ravens sure look like they have the week's best matchup on the ground.

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Of course, Derrick Henry's matchup would be made even better by the return of QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring), something that should happen given the two-time MVP managed to return to practice on Wednesday, although it's not a sure thing just yet.

That said: Don't discount the Big Dog's chances of balling out regardless of who is under center. After all, the Bears are the league's worst defense in RB rush yards before contact allowed per carry (more on that in a bit) and have allowed some big performances to the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs (104 yards, 1 TD) and Ashton Jeanty (155 yards, 3 TD) this season. Credit to Da Bears for holding up better in recent matchups with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Alvin Kamara; just realize it'd make a lot of sense if Henry starts to really catch his stride here in the upcoming weeks.

After all, it sure hasn't looked like Father Time has come for King Henry (5 yards per carry), and this is just the first of MANY rather awesome spots for the Ravens' RB1. Even matchups that don't exactly feature a horrible run defense should still carry the potential for plenty of fantasy-friendly positive game script, considering the Ravens' likely status as solid favorites.

Henry opponent ranks in PPR points per game allowed to RBs:

Week 8: Bears (22nd)
Week 9: Dolphins (30th)
Week 10: Vikings (12th)
Week 11: Browns (1st)
Week 12: Jets (14th)
Week 13: Bengals (32nd)
Week 14: Steelers (15th)
Week 15: Bengals (32nd)

Explosions in the sky: The Bills, Packers, Colts and Chiefs are set up quite well in their quest to create big plays in the passing game. It's pretty awesome being able to include the Chiefs in good offensive breakdowns again: They've scored 28-plus points in four straight games, something they accomplished just three times total in 2023 and four times in 2024! Turns out getting Patrick Mahomes a few healthy/good wide receivers goes a long way. Who would've thought?

It's 2025 guys get it together: The Dolphins, Jets, Commanders and Saints stand out as the offenses least expected to produce some explosive chunk gains through the air. That said: Give Marcus Mariota credit for still producing fantasy points during his chances over the last two seasons. Overall, MarioGOATa has posted QB9, QB6, QB6 and QB19 fantasy finishes in his four extended appearances over the last two seasons largely thanks to a robust average of 37.5 rushing yards per game—a mark that only Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson have topped since the beginning of 2024!

The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Weeks 1-7.

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The top-four RBs—other than Mr. Derrick Henry. who we already discussed—feature:

Bears RB D'Andre Swift: What a two-week stretch it's been for fantasy's RB10 in PPR points per game. While many have been quick to slander Swift's questionable (to be nice) vision over the years, he's come alive with 312 total yards and a pair of scores during big-time performances against the Commanders and Saints. Up next is a Ravens defense that ranks 31st in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs, although it's possible a healthier post-bye version of this defense could present a bit stiffer challenge than these numbers suggest.

Jets RB Breece Hall: The fourth-year talent has largely looked better than ever this season on his way to posting a league-best 13.1% explosive rush rate. Not too shabby, although at some point it'd be pretty cool if the Jets could find a way to get their featured RB into the end zone … maybe one time!

Most touches without a TD this season:

Breece Hall (118)
Trey Benson (42)
Jerome Ford (41)
Brian Robinson (41)

You know what'd be pretty cool? If the Chiefs or Chargers or Cardinals came calling! Accordingly, stashing Jets RB2 Isaiah Davis might not be a bad idea—he carries regular injury-contingent handcuff upside alongside the possibility to become the instant RB1 should a trade arise. While nobody would confuse Davis for an instant fantasy RB1 in this scenario, he'd still be looking at 15-20 combined weekly carries and targets—something that would inevitably land him on the cover of waiver wire articles of all shapes and sizes.

Commanders RB Bill Croskey-Merritt: Back-to-back duds in pretty awesome on-paper matchups against the Bears and Cowboys haven't been ideal. That said: R-e-l-a-x. The rookie has still largely made the most out of his opportunities all season long, and the return of Chris Rodriguez hasn't done anything to take away Bill's stranglehold on this backfield.

Don't confuse this for a smash spot, but the Chiefs have certainly been better against the pass (7th in EPA allowed per dropback) compared to the run (24th) through seven weeks of action.

Bills RB James Cook: Ripped off four consecutive top-10 finishes to start the season … followed by relative PPR RB41 and RB22 duds before the team's Week 7 bye. Obviously Cook will continue to be started in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes even if there's a fire, but it'd certainly be nice if there were any sort of pass-game floor to fall back on—Cook hasn't caught a pass since September! Excuse my language, but what the heck, man!

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature Rico Dowdle/Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor. The Dobbins spot in particular is worth investing in: The veteran is a home favorite at Mile High against a Cowboys defense that has largely been had by each and every offense they've faced this season. He's the RB13 in the Fantasy Life consensus rankings and capable of booming here. After all, one could argue the two best offenses in the NFL are: 1.) The Cowboys and 2.) Whoever is playing the Cowboys.

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Browns, Patriots, Packers, and Bengals this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. Of course, Quinshon Judkins might have something to say about this alleged tough matchup: The rookie has dodged, ducked, dipped, dived and dodged his way to all sorts of success on the ground this season, ultimately ranking fourth in yards after contact per carry (3.9) among 37 qualified backs. There's always some dud potential inside the Browns' lackluster offensive environment, but credit to the rookie for maintaining some quality consistency so far this season.

Judkins since taking over as the Browns' lead RB:

Week 3: 18-94-1 rushing, 1-1-0 receiving, PPR RB11
Week 4: 21-82-1 rushing, 4-33-0 receiving, RB11
Week 5: 23-110-0 rushing, 1-18-0 receiving, RB21
Week 6: 12-36-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, RB52
Week 7: 25-84-3 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, RB4

Could Josh Allen have all day to throw this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined Weeks 1-7 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

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Now, obviously Allen is going to be a top-three (more likely top one) fantasy option at the position regardless of who is lining up across from him, but perhaps this matchup could bring out the best of his pass catchers … if one ever actually cements themselves as the offense's legit go-to option.

Don't get it twisted: The Bills rank fourth in points per game this season and finished second last year. The "everybody eats" mantra is an awesome real-life philosophy that clearly works … but man, it's kind of annoying for us fantasy nerds out here! Both Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are putting up WR4 numbers despite being the top-two options for the reigning MVP for crying out loud.

That said, one pass catcher has managed to put up some pretty great fantasy numbers despite his limited role: Mr. Dalton Kincaid! Here's to hoping his existing oblique injury is in a better spot after having a week off; just realize the third-year TE has made quite the leap through seven weeks of action. Consider …

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Up next is a Panthers defense that has allowed the league's highest DVOA on targets to opposing TEs and sixth-most PPR points per game. It'd be a lot cooler if Kincaid (60% route rate in Weeks 1-5) separates more from Dawson Knox (42%) down the stretch; just realize the often-criticized former first-round pick is doing everything in his power to make the most out of his opportunities.

QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions—Get it? Under pressure?: Include Andy Dalton, Spencer Rattler and Dak Prescott. Obviously the road matchup for Dallas in Mile High is far from ideal, although Prescott deserves a lot of credit for his poise and pocket management while dealing with this banged-up offensive line. Consider: Only Daniel Jones has actually posted a lower pressure-to-sack ratio this season—don't be surprised if Prescott and the league's second-ranked scoring offense put on another show despite the potential for Bo Nix and the Broncos to score plenty of points in their own right. Speaking of Nix …

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week: Well, the numbers say Caleb Williams, Joe Flacco and Nix could join Allen as the week's top QBs who should have clean pockets on more dropbacks than not. Hopefully this smash spot brings out more from Nix in terms of his real-life efficiency. Give the second-year QB credit for shining brightest in the biggest moments this season; he made some truly awesome throws down the stretch of the Broncos' comeback win over the Eagles and Giants. That said: There isn't really a passing efficiency metric that paints the second-year signal-caller as anything other than a below-average QB. Sure, the Broncos don't exactly boast a litany of high-end receiving options outside of Courtland Sutton; just realize the man is averaging a brutal 6.1 yards per attempt—29th among 34 qualified QBs and behind guys like Spencer Rattler and Jake Browning. Luckily in fantasy land, rushing upside is a helluva drug, and Nix is one of just six QBs with 35-plus fantasy points from his work on the ground this season.

Are the Colts willing to let the artist known as Indiana Jones cook?

I hope so! Daniel Jones easily has the week's best matchup in terms of combined pass yards per dropback.

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Jones is putting up career-best numbers across the board while leading the most-efficient offense in the NFL. He's the consensus QB9 in the Fantasy Life ranks. There's weekly 250-plus yard passing, 25-plus yard rushing and three-plus TD upside here. Cool? Cool.

The more low-key involved party I'm interested in for this matchup: Ace field-stretching maven Alec Pierce, who posted season-high marks in targets (10), receptions (5) and yards (98) last week. Now, we shouldn't necessarily expect these good times to keep rolling—Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren and Josh Downs are also very good at football and will have bigger days in the passing game—but we do know Pierce is THE man for downfield shot plays (team-high 8 targets thrown 20-plus yards downfield despite missing two games), and Gen Z White Lightning has himself a pretty smashable matchup in this facet of the game.

Throw in the likely absence of No. 1 Titans CB L'Jarius Sneed, and I love the blowup potential for Pierce inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the: Chiefs, Packers, Falcons and Bears. There's a bit of uncertainty surrounding Michael Penix (knee), but getting Kirk Cousins under center wouldn't be THAT huge of a problem for these pass catchers—particularly against the Dolphins' rather brutal pass defense. I like the potential for Kyle Pitts to boom in this spot: He's arguably been playing the best ball of his career this season; don't be surprised if we see some fireworks against the league's 10th-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing TEs.

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Dolphins, Titans, Panthers and Jets profile as the bottom-four worst passing attacks. While the Dolphins have 212 million reasons to try to make things work with Tua Tagovaioloa, I certainly don't like the bounceback potential this week against the Falcons' league-best defense in passing yards allowed per game. Reminder: Tua is pretty easily playing the least-efficient football of his career at the moment.

Get your popcorn ready for Steelers-Packers

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Weeks 1-7 performance.

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The Aaron Rogers revenge-game Sunday night special features a relatively solid 45.5-point game total and profiles as a potential back-and-forth shootout if these respective passing attacks can take advantage of two defenses that have largely underperformed this season. The latter point is certainly more true for the Steelers than Packers; just realize Micah Parsons and company have allowed three straight fairly big performances through the air to Dak Prescott (319-3-0), Joe Flacco (219-2-0) and Jacoby Brissett (279-2-0) alike.

Underdog watch: There are three teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Vikings (+3.5), Bears (+6.5) and the Jets (+6.5).

Blowout alert: The Colts and Falcons rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.

Shootout city: Other than the Steelers-Packers matchup, Broncos-Cowboys, Chiefs-Commanders and Panthers-Bills boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Texans-49ers, Patriots-Browns and Chargers-Vikings profile as the three matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.