Week 9 WR/CB Matchups: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown Remain Hot Targets
Chris Allen measures the top Week WR/CB matchups, and one to avoid, for fantasy football, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown and more.
I'll be honest. I forgot to write an intro to this column until the end.
Normally, I'll sit back, remember a real-life anecdote I can relate to fantasy football and spin a compelling yarn about relying on a process. And yet, I'm guessing this is where most of us find ourselves after two months of football. The injury news and trade deadline rumors have us all off our game. You try to go through the motions and then miss the small details. Like, say for instance, an introductory paragraph or two.
Anyway, there's still time left in the season to get your roster back on track. Well, hopefully at least. But even if your chances are slim, let's dig into a few matchups that might give you the edge you need for Week 9.
Week 9 WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Commanders
I knew Jaxon Smith-Njigba was capable of being a WR1, but this season has been the perfect example of understanding talent vs situation. In ’23 and ’24, the former Buckeye had to play opposite DK Metcalf, forcing him into a flanker/slot role. Now, with Metcalf on the opposite side of the country, the third-year receiver’s usage has him in line with the best in the league.
But let’s focus on Week 9. Washington does have a strong pass rush. The last three QBs to face the Commanders have been under duress on over 35% of their dropbacks. It took a half for Patrick Mahomes to get calibrated to their front. But assuming Sam Darnold can get the ball out, HC Dan Quinn’s secondary may have a tough time keeping up with Darnold’s WR1.
- Passing Yards per Game (Allowed to WRs since Week 5): 171.5, 7th most
- Completion Percentage: 68.4%, 6th highest
I cut the timespan to the last four games to remove any bias from earlier in the season. Note: there wasn’t any. Simply put, if the pass rush fails, the offense wins. Washington’s given up the third-most passing TDs with a QB having a clean pocket. But I’ll zoom in even farther, as I noted earlier that Smith-Njigba has played more on the outside this year. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any better for the Commanders.
- Passing Success Rate Allowed (to Outside WRs): 60.0%, 10th highest
- Defensive EPA per Play: -0.35, 12th worst
While Washington primarily runs a zone-centric defensive scheme, its defense has run man-coverage concepts at the ninth-highest rate through eight games. Neither is a problem for Seattle’s WR1. Smith-Njigba leads all WRs in yards per route run against both sets of concepts (4.51 vs Man, 4.59 vs Zone). It may take a drive or two for Seattle to adjust to the pressure, but Smith-Njigba should be able to continue his WR1 campaign in Week 9.
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Vikings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the focus of the first segment, but if you look at the utilization image again, you’ll see a guy with a similar build just a couple of spots below Seattle’s superstar. Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned +30% of Jared Goff’s targets in all but one game this year (Week 1). And given how the Vikings’ defense has performed, St. Brown is the ideal receiver to pick on their weakness in the secondary.
Over the last two weeks, teams have smoked DC Brian Flores’ outside corners for long scores. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown did it in Week 7. Ladd McConkey followed them up in TNF to start Week 8. With Jameson Williams (or Isaac TeSlaa) on tap, it’d be reasonable to expect some adjustment to account for the Lions’ speed on the outside. When that happens, St. Brown will take over the game.
S Josh Metellus has the most coverage snaps from the slot for Minnesota. Of the 52 defenders with more than 50 interior reps, Metellus has given up the ninth-most yards per snap. I used this stat specifically as offenses have focused on the perimeter since, frankly, it works! Regardless, as the Vikings (re-) acclimate to their QB while their defense takes a step back, Detroit’s passing game, and specifically St. Brown, should be able to exploit their deficiencies in the secondary.
Sneaky Week 9 WR/CB Matchups
Marvin Harrison Jr. vs Dallas
Normally, any WR facing the Cowboys would go up in the “Matchups to Target” section of this piece. But we’ve got a couple of variables to consider.
Kyler Murray looks on track to return after missing two games with a foot sprain. Arizona was averaging 170.2 passing YPG with Murray under center. Jacoby Brissett came in relief and started slinging the ball all over the yard. The Cardinals were up to 274.0 YPG over the veteran’s two starts. However, the switch wasn’t as much of a boon for Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Target Rate: 21% (w/ Murray), 18% (w/ Brissett)
- Catchable Target Rate: 77%, 50%
- aDOT 12.7, 13.9
To be fair, it’s a one-game sample for Brissett. Harrison got knocked out of their Week 6 matchup, leaving us with the lone contest to compare. But Trey McBride’s jump in production (back-to-back games with +20 PPR points) lends credence to the idea that Brissett and Harrison weren’t on the same page yet. In other words, there’s some uncertainty regarding Harrison’s situation. However, we know what can happen for receivers in his upcoming game environment.
- Bo Nix: 196 (passing yards), 3 (touchdowns)
- Bryce Young: 83, 2
- Justin Fields: 117, 1
- Jordan Love: 166, 3
For transparency, I left off the Commanders as both of their top receiving options were either hurt or absent from the game. Anyway, you can see the trend of what enemy passers have done to Dallas’ defense. Oh, and those yardage totals are only what was done by WRs. Just the Giants and Steelers are allowing more through the air. So, even with the potential for Murray to come back, Harrison should be a solid play for Week 9.
Quentin Johnston vs Titans
No, I’m not being stubborn recommending Quentin Johnston. There might be a whiff of cope, but I at least have a (maybe weak!) foundation to build my case. Let’s start with the defense he’ll be facing.
- FPPG Allowed to WRs: 9th most
- Yards per Game Allowed: 6th most
Per our DvP tool, Tennessee has fertile soil for fantasy points to grow (I had to check and make sure they’re playing at Nissan Stadium for this analogy to land). However, as we’ve seen over the last few weeks, Justin Herbert can make it work without Johnston on the outside.
Ladd McConkey (9-100-1) boatraced the Dolphins, Keenan Allen tamed the Colts’ secondary the following week for another 100 yards and rookie Oronde Gadsden has been a menace in the red zone. The “too many mouths to feed” cliché comes to mind here. However, against the Titans, the Chargers have a chance to get back to their old ways.
- Week 6 (when not pressured): 5.8 (air yards per attempt)
- Week 7: 7.8
- Week 8: 8.7
Herbert’s been taking more shots downfield with his offensive line (finally) getting healthy. Week 8 was the first time his passing aDOT was over 8.0 yards in two straight games since Weeks 2 and 3. But, more importantly, when left to his own devices (i.e., not pressured), he’s taking more intermediate shots versus keeping things close to the LOS. Coincidentally, the Titans have the eighth-lowest pressure rate. And before LT Joe Alt went down, Johnston was tied for the most targets (24) and had generated the most yards (276) when Herbert had a clean pocket. Los Angeles won’t have to throw often to maintain control of this game against the Titans, but when Herbert drops back to pass, expect a few shots to Johnston.
Week 9 WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
Courtland Sutton vs Texans
I live about an hour and a half from Hartitz, but I could hear the “Sheesh” from my house.
Regardless, lowering expectations for Courtland Sutton isn’t about his missed chances for a big outing against the Cowboys. This is a forward-thinking column. However, the 180-degree flip in his game environment is something every fantasy manager should be considering.
- Passing Success Rate: 49.5% (from a clean pocket), 26.0% (when pressured)
- EPA per Dropback: 0.23, -0.33
- Adj. Yards per Att.: 7.3, 4.3
Houston ranks sixth in pressure and pass-rush win rate through Week 8. Bo Nix’s efficiency splits when given the time to operate versus trying to create out of structure are hard to miss. And you can see how a down day for Nix can affect Sutton. The veteran receiver is getting only 6.9 targets a game. And the Texans’ defensive front isn’t the only concern. Their secondary has also been an issue for opposing receivers.
- PPR PPG (Allowed to WRs): 26.3, 4th fewest
- Yards per Game: 135.7, 10th fewest
Even worse for Sutton, Houston’s been especially stingy to perimeter WRs. Between CBs Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley, they’ve allowed just 2 TDs and one WR to hit the century mark against them. With Sutton fighting to stay at the top of the passing totem pole in Denver, facing a tough defensive unit on top of his situation should keep our expectations low for the veteran receiver in Week 9.
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