📈 Mock Draft 4.0: J.J. McCarthy Enters the Top Five

Death. Taxes. Quarterbacks rising during the pre-draft process.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

Just when it seems like we’re getting a bit of clarity in the NBA postseason race, everything changes. The Mavericks and Pelicans had carved out a bit of breathing room for the final guaranteed postseason spots in the West, but they’ve given it back recently. The Pelicans have dropped two straight contests, while the Mavs lost to the Warriors in their last contest.

The Kings and Suns each picked up a win in their last game, so those four teams are now separated by just one game in the standing. Even the Lakers are alive for a guaranteed playoff spot! This race is likely coming down to the final day of the regular season.

Meanwhile, the battle for the No. 1 seed in the West is even thinner, with the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Thunder all within 0.5 games of each other. They’re all tied in the loss column, with the Nuggets owning a one-game edge in wins. The head-to-head matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves next week could ultimately decide who has homecourt advantage in the Western Conference.

Will we get any clarity on Wednesday, or will chaos continue to reign? Let’s dive into a few of my favorite bets for Wednesday, starting with a real doozy…

🐝 Charlotte Hornets ML vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-106; FanDuel)

This is a classic showdown between two teams who both desperately want to lose. It’s the kind of matchup that we occasionally see at the end of the year; while some teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, others are trying to move up in the lottery.

Both squads have been doing a pretty good job as well. The Blazers are currently riding a 10-game losing streak, while the Hornets have lost three straight and nine of their last 11. Charlotte is now just 0.5 games behind the Spurs for the third-worst record in the league, while the Blazers are 1.5 back. The team that finishes with the third-worst record gets the maximum number of ping-pong balls in the lottery, so it’s easy to see why winning might not be the biggest priority for both squads.

So, how do you handicap a contest like this? It’s important to remember that teams look to tank, not the players. The guys who are on the floor are still going to be trying their hardest, so the evaluation process isn’t that much different overall.

When looking at these rosters, it’s hard not to prefer the Hornets. Even with Miles Bridges not expected to suit up, they still have a solid talent edge over the Blazers. Brandon Miller has had a promising rookie season, while guys like Tre Mann, Grant Williams, and Davis Bertans at least belong on an NBA court.

The Blazers have very few guys who I know for certain will be in the NBA in the future. Most of their best players are sidelined, and Scoot Henderson has not lived up to the billing as the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. His book is far from written – he can turn things around in future years – but he just set the wrong kind of record a few nights ago.

I think the Hornets deserve to be favored in this spot, so I’ll grab them on the moneyline at -106.

⬇️ Donovan Mitchell Under 26.5 points + rebounds (-113; FanDuel)

Mitchell has had a fantastic season for the Cavaliers, but he’s missed a lot of time with injury of late. He sat out the team’s most recent contest vs. the Jazz, and he’s missed 16 of their past 23 outings.

He’s expected to return to the lineup Wednesday vs. the Suns, but expect the Cavs to take it easy on their star shooting guard. Their seed is still up in the air for the Eastern Conference playoffs, but that doesn’t matter if Mitchell isn’t at 100%. If he’s not ready for the postseason, it doesn’t matter what seed they get.

Mitchell has played 32.3 minutes or fewer in his past four contests, and I’d expect a similar workload on Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, the reduced playing time has had a significant impact on his numbers. He’s averaged just 13 points and 2.5 boards in those contests, so I’m willing to grab the under on 26.5 at -120. Even if he sees a slight uptick in playing time, we have plenty of cushion compared to his recent output.

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⛳ The Valero Texas Open preview and bets are out! Can English tame the field?

📺 Will NC State continue their Cinderella run? Best Bets for the Final Four.

👑 A true woman of the people. Caitlin Clark cashed the over on all her props in Monday’s win over LSU.

🏀 One more Clark nugget. She continues to do things that no one in recent college history — men’s or women’s — has accomplished.

😤 Put the word out. Tuesday was a big night for Philly fans as Joel Embiid returned.

🏆 Can UCONN pull off the men’s/women’s championship double for the third time? At least one bettor is hoping so.

🌧 Could be another long year for Mets fans. Gary Cohen was not happy about the rain delay on Tuesday.

🌳 Get your Masters’ money ready. Augusta National is looking primed. 

🏒 It’s a five-game slate in the NHL today. We already have bets up in our tracker.

With the NFL draft less than a month away, Matthew Freedman releases his post-free agency mock.

Here’s the top five of my updated mock, with a few notes.

• 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams (USC)
• 1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
• 1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)
• 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
• 1.05 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

🐻 1.01 (Bears): QB Caleb Williams

Any mock that doesn’t have Williams No. 1 overall is trying too hard. He goes No. 1 in 100% of the mocks I’ve surveyed over the past two months.

💪 1.02 (Commanders): QB Jayden Daniels

Ben Standig of The Athletic — a sharp mock drafter and ace beat reporter for the Commanders — has Daniels at No. 2.

The best price I see for Daniels No. 2 is -145 (FanDuel), and I still think there’s value at that number.

At -145, he has a 59.2% implied probability to go No. 2 (per our Fantasy Life Betting Odds Calculator). In 68% of the recent sharp mocks I’ve perused, he goes No. 2. (I logged Daniels No. 2 at +155 in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.)

🏈 1.03 (Patriots): QB Drake Maye

Maye’s draft stock has dropped since the season ended, but he had a 9.0 AY/A in college with 302-1,209-16 rushing. He’s not a bad prospect.

🐦 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison

The Cardinals might trade down from No. 4, but for now, I’m going to rely on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”

🤝 1.05 (Vikings): QB J.J. McCarthy

Projected trade: Vikings get 1.05, Chargers get 1.11 and 1.23.

The Chargers look like willing trade partners, and the Vikings want to move up to draft McCarthy as the replacement to QB Kirk Cousins.

With his strong 2023 campaign (72.3% completion rate, 9.8 AY/A), checks-the-box size (6’2” and 219 lbs.), elite agility (6.82-second three-cone drill), and babyface age (21 years old), McCarthy has underappreciated long-term upside.