2026 NFL Mock Draft: Fernando Mendoza Is The Early 1.01

The NFL regular season is officially over, the postseason will kick off soon, and the College Football Playoff has reached the semifinals stage.

On top of that, January 5th was the draft declaration deadline for all underclassmen not in the CFP (for playoff participants, the deadline is Friday, 1/23).

That can mean only one thing: It's time to release an updated version of my 2026 NFL mock draft. (If you're a real sicko, check out my way-too-early May 2025 edition).

I'm not one to brag, but …

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the industry.

For all of our draft coverage, check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.

Early 2026 NFL Mock Draft

The 2026 NFL draft order is set for the top 18 picks.

For the remaining 14, I'm using a combination of postseason seeding, consensus odds to win the Super Bowl, and my own personal postseason projections.

Every week this postseason, you can access my team projections in our Fantasy Life Game Models (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription).

Use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Methodology For My 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Here's an outline of my mock process.

1. Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
2. Order players correctly within their position groups.
3. Match teams with positions of need.
4. Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.
    

No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. Sure, a mock without projected trades isn't realistic … but it might be more accurate.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1 of the NFL Mock Draft

So much will change over the next few weeks (and months), but right now, here are the 25 players I feel I must include in current mock iterations.

I think they all have a 75% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes between now and the draft).

• QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), Dante Moore (Oregon), Ty Simpson (Alabama)
• RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
• WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), Denzel Boston (Washington), Makai Lemon (USC)
• TE: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
• OT: Spencer Fano (Utah), Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)
• OG: Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)
• EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), Rueben Bain (Miami), Keldric Faulk (Auburn), David Bailey (Texas Tech), Peter Woods (Clemson), Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)
• LB: Sonny Styles (Ohio State), CJ Allen (Georgia)
• CB: Mansoor Delane (LSU), Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
• S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

If not for his recent season-ending ACL tear, I also would've included WR Chris Bell (Louisville) on this list, but now—like CBs Benjamin Morrison and Shavon Revel last year—he will probably fall to Day 2 due to injury.

Borderline Prospects for Round 1 of the NFL Mock Draft

After the aforementioned players, here are the remaining guys I considered for inclusion.

• WR: Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)
• OT: Caleb Lomu (Utah)
• EDGE: T.J. Parker (Clemson), Matayo Uiagalelei (Oregon)
• DT: Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), A'Mauri Washington (Oregon), Caleb Banks (Florida)
• CB: Brandon Cisse (South Carolina), Colton Hood (Tennessee)

Of these guys, all but Uiagalelei and Hood made the cut, but they're all very much on the borderline of Rounds 1-2. As we progress through the offseason, some of them will probably make their way into my "must include" group, others will fall out of the borderline cohort altogether, and still others will be added to the mix. We're still in the early days.

Analysis Of The 2026 NFL Mock Draft

As we get closer to the draft, I'll provide pick-by-pick analysis in my mocks. For now, here are some general thoughts.

Quarterbacks

This is not the class that was promised. In my way-too-early mock released in May, I had five QBs.

• Arch Manning (Texas)
• LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)
• Drew Allar (Penn State)
• Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)
• Cade Klubnik (Clemson)

Let this list be a reminder that no one knows anything. Literally not one of these guys is in my updated mock.

Also, I've dropped from five QBs in Round 1 to three QBs … and I'm honestly skeptical that those three deserve to go that early.

Based just on vibes, this class feels a little bit like the 2022 cohort (Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis). All three of them had Round 1 hype, but only one ultimately got that investment.

When we get to May and look back, I won't be surprised if we see just one QB in Round 1 (at least that's my early read right now).

With the exception of 2024 (I'm looking at you, Michael Penix and Bo Nix), QBs almost always go later than we expect.

Wide Receivers

This is a decent year for the position, but athletic testing will determine a lot. If a number of WRs tear up the combine, we could see six WRs go in Round 1, maybe more.

But if this class has modest pre-draft workouts, the number of WRs in the top 32 could drop to just two.

Defensive Front Seven

This feels like the strength of the class. 

To wit, in this mock, I have EDGE/LB Arvell Reese going No. 2 overall.

After him, I have two additional off-ball LBs going in Round 1, plus six EDGEs and three DTs.

This might just be a defensive year.

The No. 1 Pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts

In superflex leagues, positional scarcity will push QBs up the board, but in non-SF formats, the No. 1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts is Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame).

He's just 20 years old, he won the 2025 Doak Walker Award as the top RB in college football, and over the past two seasons, he put up 3,014 yards and 40 TDs from scrimmage in 28 games.

With a three-down skill set and workhorse frame (6-0, 214 lbs.), Love could be one of the NFL's top backs as a rookie.

If he lands in a functional offense—unlike Ashton Jeanty this past year—he could reasonably draw Round 1 investment in fantasy drafts for season-long, best ball, and Guillotine Leagues™.

Four Teams Control the Draft

Attention always goes to the team with the No. 1 overall pick—and the Raiders are certainly intriguing—but I tend to think the franchises with multiple selections in Round 1 usually control the draft.

This year, we have four such teams: The Jets, Browns, Cowboys, and Rams.

Each of these teams has key questions entering the postseason:

• Jets: Is there a QB who deserves to go at No. 2? If they think this is a class with only one viable QB, will they attempt to package their two picks to move up one spot?
• Browns: Do they believe that QB Shedeur Sanders is the guy? And if not, will there be anyone they like available at No. 6?
• Cowboys: They need help all over the defense. Do they invest both Round 1 picks in that side of the ball?
• Rams: Is now the time to find QB Matthew Stafford's eventual successor? Or do they look to fortify an already strong roster with OT and CB reinforcements?

Join Our Newsletter

Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.

Email Address

Subscribe

By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.