Week 12 WR/CB Matchups: Target Tetairoa McMillan, Davante Adams and More

I understand the sense of frustration toward fantasy this time of year.

I’ve been out of town for my day job and wandered into a conversation between some of the locals about fantasy football the other day. The general tenor was hopelessness. There’s no point in drafting if all your starters are going to get hurt or underperform when you need them. On some level, I get it. However, the flipside of that same coin makes the disappointments worthwhile.

My good friend (and wonderful editor) Jorge and I were talking about this past week’s games, and the results reminded me of my own rollercoaster in Week 11. I started with TreVeyon Henderson, but he had Josh Allen. I came into MNF down 18 points with George Pickens to go. And you know the rest. It’s why we continue to consider everything, like defensive matchups for WRs, so our start/sit decisions can put our rosters in line for big performances with the playoffs right around the corner.

Week 12 WR/CB Matchups to Target for Fantasy Football

Tetairoa McMillan vs 49ers

Tetairoa McMillan embodies the idea that volume isn’t the only thing we should care about when valuing a WR.

Per our Utilization game logs, the rookie WR has been the leader of the Panthers’ passing attack in every game over the last month. Actually, it’s been all but one game. However, his 7.8 targets per game haven’t been the only thing needed to propel him into fantasy relevance. Coincidentally, McMillan has earned 10 targets in a single game three times this season. His fantasy finishes in PPR scoring have been WR21, WR11 and WR2. And to explain the difference in the boxscore, one thing to consider is the type of routes he was running.

Week 2: 0.0% (targets from the slot), 0.0% (screen rate)
Week 8: 30.0%, 0.0%
Week 11: 33.3%, 8.3%

Of course, it sounds so simple to us, but moving your top receiver away from a defense’s best corner and targeting them can change your offense for the better. As the Panthers had been adjusting McMillan’s route tree to fit into Bryce Young’s comfort zone, where the Arizona product operated was in flux. But shifting him into the slot and sending him on outbreaking routes gave McMillan his first top-10 outing all season. So, we’ve at least got one game where Carolina’s coaching staff has aligned their QB1 and WR1. And now they get to take on the 49ers’ secondary.

Passing Yards per Game Allowed to Outside WRs (last four games): 111.8, 10th-most
Passing Yards per Game Allowed to Slot WRs: 83.8, Most

Let’s set aside Michael Wilson’s 15-catch outing last Sunday. The last time San Francisco held an opposing WR to fewer than 10 PPR points was Week 7. Both Rams’ and Giants’ WRs hauled in over 5 passes while testing the 49ers’ interior and perimeter coverage. The result was 3 TDs. So if McMillan already has the talent, his situation should put him back in the WR1 conversation for Week 12.

Davante Adams vs Buccaneers

The Rams have played three games since their bye, and Davante Adams’ back injury has been a concern across two of them. However, it hasn’t stopped Matthew Stafford from looking to his WR2 when he (and fantasy managers) need him most.

Honestly, I’m going to ignore his increasing target share (for now). Two other columns caught my eye. His end-zone targets have been a cheat code, with his goal-line looks turning into TDs in back-to-back games. Plus, Adams has battled with Puka Nacua for the top spot in obvious passing situations. Said another way, the type of attempts thrown his way is enough to overlook a 43% catchable target rate. Besides, we (and the rest of the league) know how to exploit the Buccaneers’ defense.

- Passing Yards per Game Allowed: Most

- Rushing Yards per Game Allowed: 12th-fewest

Unless the Rams have Josh Allen ready to replace Kyren Williams, it’s fair to expect a downtick in rushing production. Meanwhile, Tampa’s pass coverage unit has given up a catch of 20 yards or more in every game except for Week 11. And when Matthew Stafford has to move in the pocket, Adams dwarfs Nacua’s 28 to 17. With the Rams as 6.5-point home favorites in a game with the highest projected total, Adams’ usage and environment are traits to target in Week 12.

Sneaky WR/ZB Matchups

Jakobi Meyers vs Cardinals

It only took a full week of practice for Jakobi Meyers to ascend to a 30% target share with Trevor Lawrence.

Neither Travis Hunter nor Brian Thomas Jr. has ever achieved a similar single-game rate with Lawrence under center. Even worse for Thomas, Meyers generated two explosive plays on in-breaking routes. The same concepts that led to multiple drops and defended passes when Thomas was the target. And I’m not saying the Las Vegas transplant is on the same skill level as the receivers that came before him, but the Cardinals have been a positive matchup against WRs that can play on the boundary and inside.

Week 9: CeeDee Lamb, 15.5 (PPR points)
Week 10: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 20.3
Week 11: Jauan Jennings, 9.4

Despite the low output, Jennings generated a positive play on three of his four catches while running over the middle of the field. JSN averaged 14.2 YPRR against the Cardinals when Seattle used play-action concepts. HC Liam Cohen has already shown a willingness to scheme up looks for Meyers in a variety of ways. Now, with more time to learn the playbook, Cohen can turn him loose on Arizona’s secondary, which has been vulnerable to similar pass catchers over their last few games.

Mack Hollins vs Bengals

Quietly, Mack Hollins has turned into a mid-range WR3 while Kayshon Boutte works back from his hamstring injury.

Drake Maye looking for Hollins in the end zone and on third/fourth downs were what piqued my interest. I thought Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry were the only options for those roles. However, Maye’s accuracy on intermediate and deep throws not only keeps the Patriots’ offense on schedule, but brings a receiver archetype like Hollins’ into the fantasy spotlight. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ secondary has allowed a reception of 15 yards or more in every game this season. The only WRs they’ve defended that haven’t averaged more than 5.0 yards after the catch per reception were the Browns’ duo. If you’re looking for an available WR in a positive environment, Hollins has the makings of a FLEX play on Sunday.

WR/CB Matchups to Avoid

Justin Jefferson vs Packers

Note: As always, “avoid” doesn’t mean “sit.” It implies that the matchups or trends around a player’s usage indicate we should lower our expectations regarding their projected output.

To be clear, Justin Jefferson’s appearance in this part of the piece isn’t a reflection of his talent.

The fourth column in Jefferson’s Utilization game log is what fantasy managers should want to see. He’s seen no fewer than 9 targets since J.J. McCarthy returned to the starting lineup. Jefferson has been McCarthy’s end-zone threat and the guy the Vikings’ QB1 looks to when trying to move the chains. However, just look at the next column over.

McCarthy is only ahead of Dillon Gabriel in completion percentage over expected after retaking the reins of the offense. His 52% air yard share in Week 10 doesn’t matter if, in fact, they were really prayer yards. Besides, the Packers rank 22nd in PPR PPG allowed to RBs. Despite the constant volume, the growing pains of McCarthy should have us lowering expectations for Jefferson in Week 12.

Players Mentioned in this Article

DavanteAdams
WRLAR
PPG
10.70
Proj
9.54
JustinJefferson
WRMIN
PPG
7.51
JakobiMeyers
WRJAC
PPG
7.26
MackHollinsIR
WRNE
PPG
5.64
Proj
0.00