49ers @ Jaguars Week 10 Game Preview

I couldn’t think of a better time these two teams could meet.

Both are sitting at the top of their divisions. January football is (almost) a foregone conclusion. And yet, we’ve got questions about both squads.

The 49ers entered their bye with three straight losses. Seemingly cursed, the same defense that held the first three QBs they faced to 9.2 PPG gave up back-to-back +20-point performances headed into their break. And Brock Purdy has turned the ball over at least once in three straight games.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ passing game is still a work in progress. Trevor Lawrence has been surgical in the short and intermediate areas of the field but hasn’t consistently threatened secondaries with the deep ball. But if San Francisco’s offense gets back on track, we might see the aggressive Trevor back in action.

On the 49ers’ side, let’s have discourse about Purdy. By generally accepted metrics, he’s still up there with the best.

• EPA per Play: 1st
• Completion Percentage Over Expected: 10th
• Adjusted Completion Percentage: T-3rd
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt: 1st

The first two metrics mostly sum up his game. However, for fantasy purposes, we need QBs to answer two questions affirmatively:

• Can you be efficient on a down-to-down basis?
• Are you pushing the ball downfield?

Generally, if you’re doing both, then the fantasy points will come. And, with Purdy, he’s one of the best at doing either. 

Before you ask, yes, I used the full season in this chart. But if you zoom into the last three weeks, Purdy’s rank in success rate and air yards per attempt rank drop to 5th. Plus, his 8.9% scramble rate has also been Top 5. And with the Jaguars allowing the sixth-highest passing success rate (49.3%), the positive environment enables the rest of the San Francisco passing game.

Christian McCaffrey managers should be the most excited for this matchup. Just three weeks ago, Alvin Kamara earned a ludicrous 14 targets and put up 91 yards as a receiver alone. But with the Colts’ RBs combining for 13 looks and Najee Harris amassing 42 yards through the air, McCaffrey’s 21.8-point projection may seem kind of light. But then again, he’ll have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to contend with for production.

On the Jacksonville side, let’s start in a similar spot as we did for the 49ers.

No, I’m not worried about Lawrence. The offensive line has taken a step back, and his knee injury (sustained in Week 6) has reduced some of his pocket mobility. But it’s not like either issue has schematically changed how he approaches the game.

By the same chart we used to praise Purdy, you’ll find Lawrence well above the league average in success rate. But, like I mentioned in the intro, the deep passing game hasn’t materialized.

The result has been a ‘death by a 1000 cuts’ approach, which has been great for Christian Kirk. On the season, Jacksonville’s slot man has the same number of targets as Mike Evans (60). Kirk’s 21.7% TPRR is greater than D.J. Moore’s and Terry McLaurin’s. And while the opportunity has kept Kirk in the WR2 conversation, it’s left Calvin Ridley out of the WR1 discussion we expected him to be in during the preseason.

But it’s not for lack of trying. Ridley leads the team with a 39.5% air yard share. But he’s primarily been used on the perimeter. However, in Week 8, Ridley’s slot rate hit a season-high (16.4%), and he ran more routes over the middle of the field. 

Accordingly, Lawrence hit his third-highest rate of attempts to the middle (45.2%), and it’s where Kirk Cousins (64.3%) and Joe Burrow 62.5%) found most of their success against San Francisco. So, while a short, quick-passing approach makes the most sense and would favor Kirk, Ridley’s increased usage going into the bye might be a sign of things to come in Week 10.