Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Week 18 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 18 matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
This will be a prime scoreboard-watching game, as the winner will have a chance to take the NFC South crown if the Buccaneers fall to the Panthers in a game that is also in the early window on Sunday.
The Saints also have a path to a Wild Card spot with losses by Green Bay and Seattle, so there will be plenty to keep track of for New Orleans fans.
Atlanta really doesn’t feel like a potential playoff team after they lost by 20 to the Bears in Week 17, but Arthur Smith’s crew has a shot if they can take down the Saints for a second time this season.
New Orleans has been playing the better football of the two, going 3-1 in their last four games, while the Falcons are just 1-3 over that same stretch. The Saints are also at home but are just 3-point favorites, which feels a bit undervalued to me.
Both teams like to run the ball and have a negative DBOE rate on the season, and they played an exceptionally run-heavy game back in Week 12. We should expect these offenses to take a similar approach this time around, which could lead to big days for Bijan Robinson and whoever leads the Saints backfield following Alvin Kamara’s sprained ankle this past weekend.
I would love to see Kendre Miller get a chance, but more likely, we’ll be in store for 20 Jamaal Williams touches if Kamara misses.
The Falcons' defense has been effective this season but is notably weak against opposing TEs. Juwan Johnson has delivered TE5 and TE1 performances in his last two games and could be poised to keep the streak of top 5 finishes going if Derek Carr continues to look his way.
Chris Olave should continue to garner the volume that has made him a solid WR2, but his lack of ceiling games has been a source of frustration for fantasy managers all year.
The Falcons offense hasn’t delivered a top 36 WR performance since Week 14, but both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have delivered in recent weeks. They have a tough matchup this week against a strong Saints run defense, so things could get tricky for Desmond Ridder and Co. if the run game struggles to get going.
Although the WRs have struggled recently, Kyle Pitts has popped up for two top-10 TE finishes in his last four games. Hardly a stellar track record compared to what we hoped for, but we have to take any signs of life we can get in this passing offense.
As someone who would prefer to see the Falcons go in a different direction with their coach and QB after this season, I’m definitely hoping for a Saints victory in this game.