Bears @ Commanders Week 5 Game Preview
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the details of the Week 5 matchup between the Bears and Commanders from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
The Bears come into this week’s Thursday Night game off a brutal loss and as one of only two winless teams left in the league. Overall, going back to last season, they have now lost 14 straight games.
Chicago had the Broncos down 21 points in the second half last week before absolutely imploding on defense (and later on offense). The Bears allowed Russell Wilson to pick them apart for much of the final two frames, with Wilson completing 75% of his passes, landing three TD passes, and posting a 133.5 QB rating (best of the year).
Part of the issue for Chicago last week was how banged up in the secondary they were. They were able to mask their shortcomings somewhat by getting some pressure on Russell Wilson in the first half, but all that evaporated quickly in the final two quarters as their base defense simply couldn’t hold up to the Broncos' passing attack, which is admittedly a decent unit—especially with Wilson playing better this season.
Things may not turn much for them in Week 5 either. Both CB Jaylen Johnson and S Eddie Jackson did not practice on Monday. It’s just a walkthrough, so there is still time for them to potentially get on the field, but on a short week, the Bears potentially getting reinforcements back for Thursday does not look promising.
That will leave them short-handed again, against a Commanders team that posted 290 yards through the air last week against another struggling secondary in the Eagles.
Terry McLaurin (8-86) had his most productive week of the year against Philadelphia and will get an even better matchup this week. Washington has been spreading the ball around a ton, as McLaurin has been their primary target but leads the team with just a 20% team target share.
Jahan Dotson (4-27-1) has had a slow start but did find the end zone last week. He’s due for a big game or two and could be a fantastic alternate line play in the player prop department on yards, with the Bears' defense once again having to play vanilla schemes due to their lack of talent/depth.
Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1) makes a touchdown catch past Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Josh Jobe (28) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Bears' rotation at RB in Week 4 got slimmer as only Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert touched the ball. Johnson’s breakout will have to wait as he saw his snap count dwindle to 19% in Week 4. The Commanders rank just 25th in yards per carry against, so both RBs will have a shot at a decent day, especially if they find themselves with the lead late.
The Commanders come in as -6.5 favorites in this game but certainly are no lock to win this one going away. Defensively they have almost as many issues as the Bears. Washington ranks 18th in defensive DVOA, and their secondary got absolutely posterized last week by the Eagles, allowing A.J. Brown a 9-175-2 day, a result that likely won the week for many of his owners in fantasy.
With that in mind, the Bears' path to winning this game is fairly simple. They’ll have to hope for a repeat performance from Justin Fields on Thursday, who was brilliant for three-and-a-half quarters against Denver, completing 23-of-24 for 285 yards and four touchdowns before the fourth quarter even began.
Fields certainly benefitted from a Broncos secondary last week that was once again tripping over itself at the most inopportune times—allowing for plenty of easier throws, including what was essentially a wide-open TD pass to Cole Kmet in the second quarter.
However, even against a weak opponent, you can’t argue with Fields’s 80% completion rate or his 9.5 yards per attempt metric, especially since he’ll be facing another struggling defensive unit in Washington. DJ Moore (8-131-1)—who is coming off his best game as a Bear by far—is also likely to provide some Groundhog Day moments for the Commanders' secondary.
Ultimately, the +6.5 points feels like a massive amount to cover for a Commanders team whose wins have both come by less than four points and against teams that are now both 1-3.
Chicago’s defense will likely ensure a 15th straight loss, but with Fields and DJ Moore now clicking, the Bears feel like the team to back in the spread department for Thursday—where any help on the injury report could also give them a needed boost as well.