Bengals @ Chiefs Conference Championship Game Preview
With a close line and a Patrick Mahomes injury to monitor, Bengals should beat the Chiefs yet again and head to their second Super Bowl in a row.
Bengals at Chiefs
The Line
Chiefs -1.5 / 48.0 Total
This line opened at Bengals +1.0 but flipped the day after to Bengals -1.0. It has bounced around all week and was once as high as Bengals -2.5 in spots before settling back to where it is now, which is the Bengals as small underdogs at +1.5
Most of the early week bets and handle has been coming in on the Bengals, but the injury Patrick Mahomes sustained in the Divisional Round has played a massive role in driving the action. The fact that there was a push to +2.5 and then a drop back down suggests there was clear buyback on the Chiefs after some better news on Mahomes came out Wednesday. As of Friday, Mahomes has been declared cleared and ready to play which obviously has had a big part of seeing them move back to favorite status.
As far as trends go, Cincinnati is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus a team with a winning record, and are now 17-4 as the away team since the beginning of 2021. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been far worse against the spread, posting a 2-6-1 ATS record at home this year.
Injuries and Notes
The Bengals enter this game relatively healthy. None of their main offensive skill players are in danger of missing the matchup. On defense, DE Trey Hendrickson had an X-Ray after the Divisional Round but reportedly got a clean bill of health this week. The Bengals’ Offensive Line remains without three starters after Alex Cappa (ankle) was ruled out early this week.
As for the Chiefs, the team confirmed that Patrick Mahomes did suffer a high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round, although Andy Reid noted that the injury wasn’t as serious as the one he suffered in 2019 (which he also played through).
Mahomes said himself he was going to play in this game and was cleared to play this Friday. The injury will still be a factor, however, as his mobility will obviously be limited and the risk of an in-game re-injury is also high.
The other player to watch on the Chiefs is WR Mecole Hardman, who hasn’t played since Week 9 with a pelvis injury. Hardman reportedly responded well to rest last week and has a shot at suiting up for this game. He tweeted out something on Friday that seemed to indicate that he’d be on the field this Sunday but remains a true gametime decision.
Matchup
Patrick Mahomes managed 7.4 yards per pass attempt and a 0.27 EPA rating in the second half last week, which was very similar to what he posted in the first half of the game. While he didn’t throw a pass from outside the pocket last week after he returned, his numbers on throws made from inside the pocket this season include a 71% completion rate and 8.3 yards per attempt.
The Chiefs should also be able to game plan for a more pocket-based Mahomes this week, which could even help with his efficiency. Kadarius Toney played just 29% of the snaps last week and ran only 12 routes, but still received seven targets which led all Chiefs WRs along with a carry that went for 14 yards.
A less than 100% Patrick Mahomes would likely mean that we’d see more plays designed to get Toney out in space fast. Toney’s average depth of target last week was miniscule, but that was likely related to Mahomes being more pocket-bound in the second half. Toney himself also still had an effective game, gaining 50 yards on six touches.
The Chiefs should also be looking to up their run game usage this week. Isiah Pacheco was the other main cog in Kansas City that got a bump in usage against Jacksonville, taking double-digit carries for the first-time in three games. He was extremely effective, averaging 7.91 yards per carry against a tough defensive front, and it’s hard to see the Chiefs not game planning around at least similar usage from him against the Bengals.
Pacheco’s 70.2 yard rushing projection on Fantasy Life gives us a solid 11.8% probability edge to work with and makes him a great over target on his current 48.5 yard rushing prop. With a projection for 12.7 rushing attempts, the over on his 11.5 carries prop is worth looking at as well.
The Chiefs allowed just 5.56 yards per attempt last week to Trevor Lawrence but will be in much tougher waters against Joe Burrow, who was hyper-efficient against the Chiefs in their first meeting, completing 80% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt.
Burrow also ran for 46 yards in that game and as a result, you should expect the Chiefs to bring far more pressure against him than they did in Week 13, when they only managed one sack. That strategy is risky, as a focus on pressure could open up more space for Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase was efficient the first time these teams played this season – posting a 7-97 line on eight targets – but the Chiefs dropping back into more zone coverage kept him from finding the end zone. However, a bigger game seems very possible this week against a secondary that ceded the eighth-most catches and second-most TDs to the WR position.
Chase leads all WRs in projected targets this week on Fantasy Life, with 12.88, and also has a solid 95.1 receiving yardage projection. With an 83.5 yardage prop on BetMGM, we have a nice 11.6-yard edge to work with, making his over worth strong consideration for betting cards.
Finally, if you’re looking for some kind of unsung hero to emerge, don’t be shocked if the Bengals’ fourth-string WR Trenton Irwin pops up with a TD. He’s seen five red zone targets since Week 11, which ties him with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd over that span, and caught four TDs this year on just 23 targets.
The red zone specialist will take on a Chiefs’ secondary that gave up seven red zone TDs to WRs this year – the second most in the league – and has a tasty +600 line for an anytime TD this week.
Conclusion
Joe Burrow has averaged a 73% completion rate against the Chiefs in three games, with 8 TDs against just one INT.
Even with Mahomes at full power, the Chiefs have failed to beat a Bengals-led Burrow team three times already, so betting them at near even money to change that trend, especially with Mahomes injured, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
The Bengals – who are a shockingly good 27-12 ATS since the start of 2021 – remain the play and should book a trip to their second Super Bowl in a row this Sunday.