Bengals @ Ravens Week 11 Game Preview
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the details of the Week 11 matchup between the Bengals and Ravens from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Bengals at Ravens
The Bengals and Ravens both come into this game off of close losses in Week 10. The Ravens still lead the AFC North at 7-3 but are only a game ahead of the Browns and Steelers (who both have a game in hand and play each other this week). The Bengals also have a game in hand and could move within a game of the lead IF they win this week.
To say this is a big matchup for playoff positioning is an understatement.
Injuries are worth noting on both sides. The Bengals will likely be without Tee Higgins (questionable - hamstring) again in this game, making it likely we’ll see more Tyler Boyd (8-117) and Trenton Irwin (2-54-1). Boyd actually led the Bengals' receivers, taking a 31% target share last week, and piled up some yards late on a mammoth catch and run that gave the Bengals a chance to win the game. Unfortunately, he also missed a potential TD on the same drive. In that vein, Cincinnati will miss Higgins’s presence if he sits as he posted two TDs against the Ravens in Week 2.
Irwin saw his route rate climb to 81% in Week 10, and he’ll once again be a decent bye week fill-in option for deeper fantasy leagues—and a potential anytime TD option for betting.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) turns downfield after completing a catch in the fourth quarter of a Week 10 NFL football game between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Houston Texans won, 30-27. Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
It gets uglier for the Bengals on defense. Both Sam Hubbard (ankle) and Trey Hendrickson (knee) got banged up last week and were DNP on Monday, putting their availability in jeopardy for TNF as well. Hendrickson, who injured his knee on a fluke play after the whistle, is 7th in sacks on the season (8.5) and would be a massive loss.
On the Ravens' side, they have key injuries as well. Marlon Humphrey (ankle) and left tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee) left Sunday's Week 10 game and did not return. Starting guard Kevin Zeitler also didn’t finish the game.
The Ravens allowed Deshaun Watson to go 14-14 in the second half of last week’s loss, so losing Humphrey is a a big deal, especially with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow on the docket this week. Lamar Jackson also had potentially his worst game of the season, completing just 56% of his passes and throwing two INTs. The O-line issues likely were a part of that Jackson regression and are worth keeping an eye on this week as the practice reports come out.
Defensively, the Bengals have been giving up yards (5.0 yards per carry against – second worst in league) but also have been an extremely opportunistic group (second in turnovers). They’ll need that trend to continue this week. The Ravens being down a key piece in their secondary also opens up a door of opportunity for Burrow and Chase to step in and potentially steal this game—and save the Bengals' season. Burrow made a couple of mistakes last week but has a 74% completion rate and has thrown for 8.43 yards per attempt over his last three games.
Cincinnati does look outmatched on paper, but you need to be wary of Joe Chill in these situations. Since coming back from his ACL tear in 2021, the Bengals are 10-2 ATS as road underdogs with Burrow. Additionally, the Ravens have not been a profitable team in these spots, going 6-12 ATS as home favorites over that same span.
The line for this game opened at 2.5 but promptly shot up to 3.5, getting past the key number of 3.0 and giving the Bengals over a FG on the spread. It does look bleak for the Bengals, but this team has risen from the ashes once already and the Ravens are coming off a physical game against the Browns. Even if it’s not enough to grab a win, I’d look for Cincinnati to keep this game tight with their defense chipping in with a turnover or two, and Chase and Burrow making enough plays to keep this within a FG.
For betting, keep an eye on Joe Mixon receiving props as well. He’s gone for 25+ yards (receiving) against the Ravens in seven of 12 career matchups.