Texans @ Bengals Week 10 Game Preview

What a difference a week can make.

Coming off their bye, Cincinnati beat the 49ers in convincing fashion, with Joe Burrow rushing for more yards than he had all season. But doubts about SF’s defense had already started to surface after two narrow losses to Cleveland and Minnesota. Fans needed more certainty the Bengals were back.

And think about the perception around C.J. Stroud just two weeks ago. His 140 scoreless yards in Week 8 was a season-low for the rookie. And to make matters worse, the loss came against the Panthers, who we all labeled as wrong for passing on Stroud and taking Bryce Young.

Again, what a difference a week can make.

Stroud now holds a place in the history books, and Burrow is fifth in MVP odds. Both have a shot to make the playoffs, but let’s see how they (and we) will approach Week 10 and the fantasy implications.

For Cincinnati, let’s start here.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) warms up before an NFL wild-card playoff football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Baltimore Ravens At Cincinnati Bengals Afc Wild Card Jan 15 0085

Ja’Marr Chase opened the week with the DNP after taking a hard fall in Week 9. But, depending on how you look at it, it’s good that we’ve seen the Bengals live without Chase in the past. 

His hairline fracture in his hip caused him to miss four games last season. Cincinnati went 3-1, and the passing game adjusted to account for his absence.

• Tee Higgins: 26.3% (target share), 45.2% (air yard share)
• Tyler Boyd: 16.1%, 20.8%
• Hayden Hurst: 15.3%, 13.2%
• Joe Mixon: 12.4%, 0.2%

Higgins slides into the WR1 role without a doubt. Since returning from injury, the former Clemson WR is averaging 2.07 YPRR (14th out of 55 qualifying receivers) and generating a first down on a blistering 57.9% of his targets from Burrow. 

And, of course, Boyd gets a slight bump. The Bengals’ slot man has the second-most red-zone targets with Burrow healthy, so he’ll be in the low-end WR2 conversation, assuming Chase sits with a divisional matchup on TNF coming in Week 11. But I’m primarily interested in what Zac Taylor and OC Brian Callahan have in mind for Mixon.

A static run game plagued the Bengals early in the season yet again. With Burrow’s calf still an issue, Mixon attempted a run out of shotgun formation on 58 of 59 plays. But out of the bye, the rate has dropped 66.7%. Regardless, Mixon has one of the best opportunity shares in the league.

On the season, his 79.7% team rushing share ranks first among all RBs. But he also has a 10.1% target share, which, if that takes a jump with Chase sidelined, will be the key to Cincinnati’s success. Houston has allowed four RB1 performances, and all of them got a boost with their work through the air:

• Alvin Kamara, 8-36-0, 10.6 (PPR points from receiving alone)
• Rachaad White, 4-46-0, 8.6
• Travis Etienne, 5-50-0, 9.0
• Zack Moss, 4-19-0, 5.9

So, while I hope we see more from the ancillary WRs (special shoutout to Andrei Iosivas). Cincinnati’s best chance to extend their streak will be through their big three if Chase has to rest.

For the Texans, we already know where we can turn to for fantasy production. I mean, it’s certainly not their running game.

Dameon Pierce hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3, hasn’t topped 50 yards on the ground since Week 5, and started Week 10 with a DNP. And Devin Singletary, with the backfield all to himself on Sunday, turned 15 touches into 26 scrimmage yards. So, C.J. Stroud took matters into his own hands, and we saw a shift in their offensive identity.

Houston hit a season-high in DBOE, which accounts for the comeback scenario they found themselves in during the fourth quarter. And, even better, we know where the targets are going.

Coming out of their bye, Dalton Schultz leads the receiving corps with a 25.8% target share. The former Cowboy’s 2.29 YPRR ranks third at the position over the last two weeks. But Stroud’s WRs will draw the most attention.

After missing time due to a concussion, Tank Dell has hoarded 40.8% of the air yards since the Texans came out of their bye. He’s earned targets at a higher rate than Nico Collins (23.4% TPRR to 19.0%) while averaging 2.03 YPRR. He was my top waiver add for the week, but Noah Brown deserves an honorable mention. Houston’s slot man has the most explosive plays for the Texans in their last two games. And if the Bengals get off to a hot start again on Sunday, they’ll need as many big gains as they can from Dell and Brown to keep the Texans in the game.