Bills @ Bengals Week 9 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 9 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
We’ve got a real treat on Sunday Night Football as the Bills travel to Cincinnati for a rematch of the AFC Divisional round game that the Bengals won in January.
These two teams have been trending in opposite directions, with the Bengals coming on strong after a slow start, while the Bills are 2-2 in their last four games. Neither squad is leading their division, and they are trying to keep pace as the playoff picture emerges.
The Bills offense is second in EPA per play this season and has been great in both the run and pass game. The Bengals don’t rate quite as well when looking at the full season so far, but if we shorten the time frame to just the last three weeks, they are third in offensive EPA per play.
Josh Allen has thrown multiple TDs in five straight games and has averaged more than 35 pass attempts per game this season. He did reaggravate a shoulder injury last week against Tampa Bay that has forced him to miss practice time this week, but with the ‘mini bye’ following that Thursday game, he will hopefully have enough time to get right.
Stefon Diggs is second among all WRs in target share (33%), but the second weapon in the passing game has varied from week to week. Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid have both shown a weekly ceiling, and Khalil Shakir looked capable in an expanded role last week.
The matchup suggests Kincaid could be in for a big game against a Bengals defense that has given up the most points per game to the TE position. His strong usage over the last two games (15 targets) and the favorable matchup have him up at the TE5 for the week in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks.
For the Bengals, the Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase connection has been absolutely cooking over the last three weeks, with Chase turning 43 targets into 372 yards and four touchdowns.
Cincinnati needs someone else to step up, as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins have each finished as top-24 WRs in PPR scoring just once this season.
They also need more from their rushing game, but at least there were some positive signs on that front as Joe Mixon posted a season-high in rush yards (87) and yards per carry (5.4) in Week 8.
The Bills' defense hasn’t been great this season, but they have been pretty banged up and did make a move to acquire CB Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline, so help is on the way.
The Bengals are two-point favorites at home, and with how well they have been playing recently, I lean towards taking that line as Joe Burrow & Co. will be looking to make a statement at home in primetime.
We already know lots of fantasy matchups will hinge on what happens in this game, so hopefully, this game lives up to the 48-point game total and gives a great conclusion to the Sunday slate.