Bills @ Eagles Week 12 Game Preview

In retrospect, maybe this game should’ve been the matchup of the week. It certainly has the star power.

The No. 1 QB in fantasy PPG faces off against the No. 2 QB. The WR with the second-most receiving yards in the league will watch the WR with the seventh-most try and keep his team’s playoff hopes alive. Really, all we’re missing is a revenge narrative or off-field plot twist to add more drama to this contest.

But, honestly, we’ll just take the fantasy points. So, let’s see where we’ll most likely find them.

For Buffalo, I’m not sure firing Ken Dorsey was the right move. But at least the offense did take a step in the right direction in their win over the Jets.

• EPA per Play: -0.14 (Week 10), 0.05 (Week 11)
• Passing Success Rate: 38.5%, 45.5%
• Plays per Game: 52, 71

At first glance, interim OC Joe Brady’s approach had them looking like the Bills we’ve all come to depend on for fantasy production. And given they were facing a stingy Jets’ defense, our confidence in Buffalo’s pass-catchers should improve.

Fantasy managers may have some questions about Stefon Diggs. Over their last month of games, Josh Allen’s favorite target is yet to eclipse 100 yards in a single game and found the end zone once. But it’s not like there’s a new kid on the block taking opportunities away from him.

His 25.6% target share leads the Bills’ pass-catchers over their last four games. Plus, with the Eagles’ defensive struggles in their secondary, Diggs will be a prime bounce-back spot on Sunday.

But Philly can get burned by deep threats on the outside and receivers that run from the interior (CeeDee Lamb 10-133-0, Cooper Kupp 9-92-0, Jahan Dotson 8-73-1) have also turned in top-12 results. So Gabe Davis (air-yards leader at 25.5%) and Khalil Shakir (69.3% slot rate) are in the WR3 discussion. However, the Eagles have a problem covering TEs, too.

Without Dawson Knox on the field, Dalton Kincaid has the most looks from Allen of any Bills’ pass-catcher on a per-route basis (23.1% TPRR). And he’s at the top of the food chain when Allen gets the team in scoring position. With the Eagles limiting opposing RBs to the fewest rushing yards per game, James Cook will need more than his 2.8 targets per game to go with his 47.6% carry share. As a result, I’ll be starting more pass-catchers than RBs from Buffalo this weekend.

On the Eagles’ side, their win over the Chiefs cemented their claim on another deep playoff run after making it to the Super Bowl in ’23. But it’s been two consecutive weeks where we’ve seen them lean into their strength on offense, which isn’t as fruitful for fantasy.

Jalen Hurts hit a season-low in passing attempts (22) and yards (150) on Monday night. It was the first game since Week 14 of last year (when he was healthy) that he didn’t throw for a TD. And looking at Buffalo’s defense, the matchup dictates another run-first approach for the Eagles’ offense.

Out of their bye, D’Andre Swift maintained his RB1 role with 50.0% of the team’s carries. Kenneth Gainwell (2 touches) and Boston Scott (2) still weren’t a factor despite the negative game script they faced throughout part of the game. So, at best, Gainwell is an injury stash. 

However, the defensive injuries continue to pile up for the Bills. Also, looking at the last few receivers to face them, we can build a profile of the type of WR that would win against Buffalo’s secondary:

• Week 8: Chris Godwin, 7-54-1, 16.4 (PPR points)
• Week 9: Tee Higgins, 9-110-0, 19.0
• Week 10: Courtland Sutton, 11-53-1, 17.3

On that list, I see two perimeter WRs capable of winning in contested-catch situations. A.J. Brown should be fine. I spy a WR1B who gets some run in the slot, too. DeVonta Smith’s explosive catch setup Hurts’ tush-push (get out of here with this Brotherly Shove nonsense) to take the lead. Fire Smith up with confidence. Since the backup TEs haven’t earned any looks with Dallas Goedert sidelined, our focus should stay on the WRs in what should be a high-scoring affair in Philadelphia.