Browns @ Broncos Week 12 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 12 matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Two of the NFL’s hottest teams will face off in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos have won four in a row to now sit at 5-5, and the Browns have won five of their last six and are tied for the second-best record in the AFC at 7-3.
The Browns' offense went with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB and leaned on their rushing attack and defense to carry them to a win. That seems likely to be the gameplan for Cleveland every week, which will make their matchups rather unattractive for fantasy purposes. That’s certainly the case this week, with a game total of just 35 points.
No one on Cleveland is a smash fantasy option (except their defense), but it does look to be a pretty concentrated offense which should give some guys a decent floor.
David Njoku had an insane 15 targets last week and logged his best weekly finish of the season as the TE4. If he continues to see a significant target share with DTR, he could be a solid every week starting TE down the stretch, but we’ll need to see it for another week or two before saying that for confidence. For now, he ranks as the TE12 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks, with no teams on bye this week.
Among the WRs, Amari Cooper has been the clear top receiver this season, but if the passing attack shifts to emphasize quick throws to keep things simple for DTR, that is more likely to benefit Elijah Moore and the aforementioned Njoku.
In the backfield, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have handled relatively similar workloads on the ground over the last five games, while Ford has had the edge in the passing game. Ford also appears to be the more explosive of the two, which puts on the RB2 borderline (RB24 this week), while Hunt is more of a low-end FLEX option (RB35 this week) where you really have to hope for a TD.
The Broncos haven’t been exceptional at any one thing but have found a way to win close games recently. Three of their four wins in this current streak have been by fewer than three points, and they are likely to be in for another close game, as indicated by the 35-point total and 1.5-point spread.
The Denver offense will have their work cut out for them against one of the league’s best defenses. They have been truly elite against the pass and rank first in dropback EPA per play this season.
This will make it tough to trust any of the Broncos' pass catchers, but if you do have to start someone, I sure hope it is Courtland Sutton, who has now scored in five straight games.
By far, the most exciting Bronco for fantasy purposes is Javonte Williams, who has handled 70% of the rush attempts and has a 13% target share over his last four games. He appears back to full strength and will likely be the best chance for Denver to move the ball, as the Cleveland defense has just been above average against the run rather than elite.