Browns @ Ravens Week 10 Game Preview

Of course, both of these teams are good. 

Their win-loss records already point us in that direction. Plus, you can find either squad in the Top 10 for most defensive metrics and a couple offensive stats. The only thing we can nitpick is their schedule, as both have faced at least one backup QB over the last few weeks. 

So, let’s give them both a test. 

In Week 9, Deshaun Watson completed two touchdown passes for the first time since September. Baltimore has given up multi-TD games from a QB twice all season. Lamar Jackson has the third-highest success rate when pressured. Cleveland has the second-highest pressure rate through nine weeks while also allowing the second-lowest passing success rate when getting pressure on opposing QBs. 

It’s a fascinating matchup on both sides, but let’s start with the Browns and what we can expect out of their offense from a fantasy standpoint.

Fantasy managers expected Watson’s return to be a bump in the passing game. And we were right. Cleveland’s QB1 only attempted 30 passes, which is less than any outing from Walker since their bye. However, because Watson returned in a game the Browns controlled essentially from kickoff, it was the first time in a month the Browns’ dropback rate exceeded expectations.

And what’s better than a pass-first offense? One with a condensed target tree!

Despite nine players earning a target, only five ran more than ten routes. Three earned five or more targets. Amari Cooper is the only WR worth rostering, as Elijah Moore fell behind backup TE Jordan Akins (3) in looks and WR4 Marquise Goodwin in air-yard share (37.8%). Meanwhile, David Njoku has taken a +20.0% share of the looks in three straight games.

And after nearly missing Week 8, Jerome Ford has reasserted his claim on the backfield with a 50.0% team share to go with his seven targets. Baltimore already spotted Ford with 6.9 PPR points back in Week 4, buoying his otherwise dud of a fantasy day (9-26-0 as a runner). Given his hybrid role, he’s the best back to roster against the Ravens’ vaunted front.

For the Ravens’ offense, I want to start with this chart.

You’ll see this graph or something similar on social media. So anyone with eyeballs will see the “good QBs” in the top right ABOVE the black line.

And then they’ll see Lamar Jackson right next to Russell Wilson.

But Jackson ranks fifth in overall passing success rate with the third-highest adjusted completion percentage (79.4%). And he’s doing all this while averaging 8.0 air yards per attempt (12th-most amongst all passers). Concerns about Lamar as a traditional dropback passer shouldn’t exist anymore. And finally, we’re starting to see a more diverse passing attack.

Baltimore’s DBOE rate sat at -5.0% over the first month. Not only was Jackson adjusting to the scheme, but he was lacking weapons to target.

Odell Beckham missed Weeks 3 and 4 with an injury. Oft-injured Rashod Bateman also missed Week 4, along with playing on less than 40.0% of the team’s snaps in multiple games. Jackson made do with Nelson Agholor and Zay Flowers, but the health of the receiving corps has improved over the last month.

Beckham now leads the crew in air yards with the same number of targets as Flowers (22). It took Beckham turning 31 years old to get a touchdown, but his increased role made him a viable waiver target for Week 10. The same goes for a member of the Ravens’ backfield.

Keaton Mitchell zoomed into fantasy relevance with multiple explosive runs against the Seahawks. But even though most of his production came with Baltimore comfortably ahead, his usage in the first half was encouraging, as he matched Justice Hill and Gus Edwards in touches (4).

His 191 lbs frame and lack of a receiving role (1 route, 0 targets) look daunting against the Browns defensive front. However, Mitchell earned 63 targets over his final two years at East Carolina while averaging 1.26 YPRR. He tied for the highest career explosive rushing rate out of the ’22 class, and it’s clear the Ravens need younger talent at the position. The Ravens’ backfield might be a three-way committee now, but Mitchell won’t let it stay that way for long.