Buccaneers @ Packers Week 15 Game Preview

In my mind, this game will go one of two ways.

Either we get a back-and-forth offensive explosion filled with both QBs throwing haymakers at each other all afternoon. Or, they struggle to complete over half of their passes. And everyone, including the players, feels bad for witnessing the event.

There’s no in-between.

The Packers and Buccaneers are prone to the same levels of week-to-week volatility. One week, Green Bay can handily beat the Chiefs. But then drop a game to Tommy DeVito their next time out. Meanwhile, the Bucs went from airing the ball out to leaning on their rushing attack. It might be easy to talk yourself into a few plays from this game, but let’s see which ones make the most sense.

For Tampa Bay, the offense hasn’t had to rely on Baker Mayfield as much lately. Since Week 11, his total pass attempts have dropped, and he’s crossed 250 yards just once over his last four games. And the dip in Mayfield slinging it shows up in his dropback rate.

Now, part of the decline could be due to his matchups. The Panthers and Colts rank in the bottom 6 in rushing EPA allowed, and the Falcons are below-average in success rate. Luckily, the Packers’ secondary has surrendered the 10th-worst EPA per dropback average. So, a shift in their offensive approach may be coming when we need it most. If so, we already know who the beneficiaries are.

Chris Godwin got back to his 1B role alongside Mike Evans after suffering a neck injury ahead of Week 13. But Godwin snatched up 37.9% of Mayfield’s attempts last week. And with Evans still earning over 25.0% of the air yards, the duo has fringe top-24 appeal in most formats. But they’ve got some competition for money touches with a player who has a better defensive matchup.

Rachaad White is one of 15 RBs with a team rushing share over 50.0%. Only Christian McCaffrey runs more routes and has more targets. Only Derick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs have more carries from inside the 5-yard line. White’s workload has been uncontested all season, and he’s fifth in PPG because of it.

With Mayfield’s volume in question, we should only focus on his top three options for the playoffs. Unfortunately, Green Bay’s offense isn’t as straightforward.

Let’s take a high-level view of the Packers’ offense first. Jordan Love hasn’t attempted fewer than 30 passes in a single game since early November. And Green Bay has generally been at the league average in total plays run.

However, Love’s been throwing to the short area of the field more often. His air yards per target have dropped from 9.4 in Week 12 to 5.9 on Monday night. Plus, some of the ‘training wheels’ were taken off the offense for what should have been a simpler matchup for the Packers.

It’s Love’s first year as the starter, and his receivers are young. They’re prone to games like this. But the Bucs’ defense, at least on paper, sets up as another matchup Green Bay’s passing game should be able to exploit.

Romeo Doubs operated as the team’s WR1 when Christian Watson missed time earlier in the season. But Jayden Reed seized the title on Monday with a 26.3% target share to go with his four carries. The MSU product now has multiple catches and rushing attempts in three of his last four games. Between him and Doubs, they’re the best fantasy options from the Packers’ passing game in Week 15.