Cardinals @ Bears Week 16 Game Preview

I feel like if this game were in Arizona, the total would be a few points higher than 44.5. In my opinion, the scenery changes everything.

Think about it. You could frame a Kyler Murray vs. Justin Fields matchup like this:

Two of the league’s most dynamic mobile QBs face off in the desert in a hotly contested matchup.

Compare that to:

Get ready for classic NFL action with two rushing teams set to battle in the cold at Soldier Field.

It’s all about optics. Well, at least for betting purposes it is. But there are still some fantasy plays worth rostering in Week 16. Let’s start on the visitor’s side.

For the Cardinals, Murray’s return hasn’t been the season-saving move that some had hoped it would be. Arizona has a 2-3 record with K1 back under center, and the team has yet to put together a 30-point performance all season. And from what we’ve seen over the last two weeks, passing volume has been at a premium.

Murray hasn’t topped 275 passing yards in a single game but has 30 or more attempts in four of five starts. And that’s mostly due to his passing depth. His 10.4 air yards per attempt have dwindled each week to 6.0 against the 49ers on Sunday. But at least we know where most of the targets are going.

Trey McBride has separated himself from the rest of the Cardinals’ pass-catching corps with a whopping 27.3% target share since Murray returned. He has earned 45 looks from Murray. No one else has more than 24. Admittedly, some of it has been due to the health of Arizona’s WRs. Regardless, the Bears’ defense sets up well for the rookie TE.

Since adding to their defensive line, Chicago has been a tough out for opposing running games. The best performances have come from the Lions’ rushing duo (Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 19.4 PPR PTS against them; David Montgomery averaged 14.7). But James Conner has a 7.9% target share and still hoards 100.0% of the carries from inside the 5-yard line. He’s a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 for Week 16.

The WRs are a tougher story. Marquise Brown hasn’t been healthy in almost a month, and Murray split the targets to his WRs between Greg Dortch (3), Michael Wilson (3), Rondale Moore (3) and Zach Pascal (4). Without any defined WR1, it’s best to avoid the entire mess against a solid Bears’ secondary.

For the Bears, we got robbed of a Hail Mary saving the day. If you take the long view, losing is probably in their best interest, but let’s have fun now, I say. Regardless, it has been nice to see Fields get to air it out a bit more on game day.

The unfortunate part is the increased dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate hasn’t translated into more production. Fields has just one 300-plus-yard game on his resume this season, which came before his injury. Granted, he’s faced tough units, but he at least has a chance to right the ship against this Arizona secondary who’s been kind to opposing QBs.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. You see that dark blue score for RBs and think it’s time to fire up a Bears’ rusher. But let’s look at just one of the components of their ground game and see if he’s worth trusting in the fantasy playoffs.

Nope.

D’Onta Foreman has two starts. Khalil Herbert has one. Roschon Johnson played the most snaps in Week 15. No thanks. Foreman’s green-zone role (67.0% of the inside-the-5 carries with Fields back) does give him the most upside, but this is another backfield to avoid.

The only viable plays are through D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. They are the only Bears’ pass-catchers with a 10+% target share in every game with Fields back under center. While it’d make sense for them to evaluate their other talent (Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott), we can only trust Moore and Kmet for Week 16.