Cardinals @ Rams Week 6 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 6 matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Week 6 is the wrong week for this matchup.
Can we reschedule it?
I mean, don’t get me wrong. The Cardinals’ offense is still feisty. Despite losing to Cincinnati on Sunday, they were still league average in yards per play (5.2), matching the Chiefs' productivity on a per-play basis. But James Conner’s been placed on IR. Plus, one of Arizona’s starting CBs left Week 5 with a concussion.
Meanwhile, the Rams got a boost with Cooper Kupp’s return. And it’s not like he came back, was on a snap count, and turned in a modest stat line after missing a month of action. Matthew Stafford targeted Kupp six times…on the first drive. The only thing the triple-crown winner didn’t do in his ’23 debut was score a touchdown.
Regardless, at full strength, the play callers on both sides have made each offense effective for both real and fantasy purposes. However, after Week 5, the Cardinals’ margin for error may be a bit thinner.
But let’s start with the good parts of the Josh Dobb’s experience.
Even after Sunday, the former Pittsburgh backup sits at 0.03 EPA per dropback. Here’s a quick list of notable passers he’s ahead of in the ranks:
- Dak Prescott (0.02)
- Kirk Cousins (0.0)
- Lamar Jackson (-0.06)
Heading into Week 5, he had a higher adjusted completion percentage (75.8%) than Justin Herbert (75.5%). And now, he’s generated more yards off of downfield throws (228) than Brock Purdy (214). But even better, Dobbs’ target tree is condensed enough that we have a sense of where the targets will go.
- Marquise Brown: 27.8% (target share), 26.1% (TPRR)
- Zach Ertz: 22.5%, 24.3%
Nov 27, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown (2) against the Los Angeles Chargers at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
No other pass-catcher has more than 20 looks from Dobbs. And Brown and Ertz hog all of the green-zone targets, too. Together, they account for 75.0% of the attempts. With the Rams ranked 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, Ertz continues to have starting potential in PPR leagues. However, a potential change in the backfield to rookie Emari Demercado (who earned a 10.0% target share on Sunday) may lower Ertz’s volume in Week 6.
For the Rams, it was just good to see Kupp back out on the field. And for fantasy managers worried about Kupp co-existing with Puka Nacua, Los Angeles’ tight race with the Eagles on Sunday gave us some insight.
- Target share: 35.3% (Kupp), 32.4% (Nacua)
- Target share in obvious passing situations: 37.5%, 37.5%
- Air yard share: 40.8%, 37.5%
- TPRR: 30.0%, 26.8%
- Red-zone targets (inside the 10-yard line): 50.0%, 50.0%
HC Sean McVay didn’t just slot Nacua into the ‘Kupp role.’ And, given how seamless Kupp’s return looked, it’s fair to say McVay had planned on the two working together. But the Cardinals’ defense doesn’t pose a similar threat as the Eagles.
Plus, their offense isn’t as dynamic. In a less competitive matchup, it’s fair to think the touches may shift to one of the WRs. But against a secondary ranking in the bottom 6 for both pass rush and run stop win rate, both can be top-12 options in Week 6.