Chargers @ Packers Week 11 Game Preview

Chargers at Packers 

This is another matchup between two teams coming off close losses. The Packers played the Steelers tight last week and outgained them in yards by a wide margin, but did a poor job of converting on TDs inside the red zone. Jordan Love had another decent day passing (career-high 289 yards) but also threw two INTs late in the game, both in or around the end zone. 

The Chargers had their issues last week as well, but they weren't on offense. Los Angeles put up 38 points against Detroit, in a game they were 3.0 underdogs in before kickoff, but still managed to lose (and only managed a push for those who took them on the spread). It’s a relatively normal result for the Chargers, who remain a ridiculous franchise. 

The Chargers' defense cratered in every respect against Detroit, with the fatigue of being on a short week—and playing a top five offense–obviously being too much. They enter this game second-to-last in yards per pass attempt against and 27th in DVOA on defense. While they are relatively healthy on defense at the moment, their offense sustained some injuries that are worth monitoring.

Keenan Allen (11-175-2), who was essentially their entire offense last week, is now questionable with a hamstring issue for Week 11. It’s a worrisome development for a team down their top two WRs who can’t run the ball (24th in yards per carry). 

TE Gerald Everett (back), who just returned from injury, is also now back on the injury report. He’s been a massive disappointment thus far for fantasy purposes and produced a goose egg last week for those who trusted him. 

Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

IF Allen misses, Los Angeles will start a WR crew that features Quentin Johnston and Jaylen Guyton as their top two options. Johnston caught the first TD of his career last week, and certainly seeing the rookie go 4-4 in converting targets will have Chargers' fans somewhat bullish on him going forward. Guyton (4-41-1) caught a TD as well and actually outproduced the rookie, while seeing a 15% target share. If you’re buying low on one or looking for a bye-week fill-in, Guyton is likely the better option. 

Regardless of who you side with down the depth chart for the Chargers, it isn’t the best of matchups for their passing game or Justin Herbert. Herbert was terrific last week (8.0 yards per attempt, 323-4-1) but faces a Packers defense that is eighth in yards per attempt against and has allowed just one QB—Kirk Cousins in Week 8—to throw for over 250 yards. 

The Packers could also be getting CB Jaire Alexander and LB Quay Walker back for this game, who both missed last week.  Green Bay has had some success on the ground of late, with AJ Dillon piling up 70 yards on just nine carries against a tough Pittsburgh front.

Facing an NFC North team for the second week in a row in Green Bay, who likes to run—and is pretty good at it (4.7 yards per carry over their last three games)—feels like trouble for the Chargers. They were clearly fatigued last week and gave almost no resistance to the Lions' run game, allowing their RBs to average an absurd 7.42 YPC on 26 attempts. 

The Packers' run game has found some legs the last two games, and with Aaron Jones healthy, we may see the Chargers' chances of getting into the playoff hunt fully extinguished this week. The Packers rarely get put as home underdogs but are 3-1 ATS in these situations since 2020.

Green Bay looks like a solid target at anything +3.0 or bigger on the spread and also works as a potential teaser candidate this week. For props, the overs on Green Bay’s running backs will be something to look at later in the week given their resurgence against Pittsburgh and the Chargers' issues on defense.