Chargers @ Raiders Week 15 Game Preview
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the details of the Week 15 matchup between the Chargers and Raiders from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Chargers at Raiders
This will mark the second meeting between these two divisional rivals for 2023. In the first game, the Chargers prevailed 24-17, but the circumstances then were much different than the circumstances we are getting in Week 15.
Back in Week 4, it was the Raiders who were dealing with an injury to their starting QB and were being forced into starting an inexperienced backup in 4th round rookie Aiden O’Connell—who was making his first official start in the league that week. The turntables have turned for the Week 15 rematch. This week, it’s the Chargers who have lost their starting QB (Justin Herbert, finger – out for season) and now are forced to turn to their 2019 5th round selection, QB Easton Stick—who will also be making his first ever NFL start this week.
Despite this being his first official start, Stick does have the advantage of having been in the league for five years now, and each one of those seasons has come as a part of the Chargers' roster. He’s also been a part of five preseasons now and attempted 73 passes this preseason alone (1 TD - 2 INTs). He also rushed 11 times for 82 yards and two TDs during play this August.
Despite having the experience edge on his Raiders counterpart, it’s hard to know what we’ll see out of Stick. He didn’t turn the ball over last week but also only managed to complete 54% of his passes, despite seeing plenty of late prevent defense. The Raiders have improved as a rush defense under Antonio Pierce and have now allowed just 3.7 yards per carry against over their last three games. The Chargers also can’t run the ball. Even against Denver (24th in EPA per rush) they averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and rank 31st in success rate when rushing the ball.
Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) runs the ball against the Denver Broncos during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
While the Raiders aren’t impenetrable, they are likely to stack the box even more in this situation and attempt to make the Stick beat them with his arm whenever possible. For props, that could mean we see Austin Ekeler used more as a receiver than ever this week, and it’s worth noting that Ekeler was one of Stick’s favorite players to throw to last week, as he saw 7 targets and converted that into a 5 rec., 49 yard day (one of his best receiving lines of 2023).
The one bit of good news for the Chargers heading into this game is how bad the Raiders' offense has been of late. Las Vegas is coming off a game where they were shut out at home and generated just 202 total yards. More concerning is the fact they could be without their lead back Josh Jacobs (knee - questionable), whom the team has relied on heavily all season. Jacobs limped off late in the game with a knee injury, and if he can’t go this week, Vegas likely turns to a rotation of Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah, who don’t offer the same kind of versatility or reliability that Jacobs does.
It’s worth noting that Vegas also had issues protecting O’Connell last week (4 sacks) and the Chargers' defensive line is great at generating sacks (43 on year, second most in league). The Raiders had issues getting the ball in space to either Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers against the Vikings, thanks in larger part to a tough Vikings defensive line—and complex blitz schemes. And those same issues seem likely to present themselves in this game against a Chargers defense that is great at getting to the quarterback—and is also top 10 in blitz rate.
This game has two teams with very unproven QBs that aren’t likely to be able to exploit the weaknesses of the defense they are facing. The Raiders certainly will need their offensive line to step up—and may be relying on backups at RB—but ultimately, I think they’ll be able to move the ball enough (much like Denver did last week) to put up some points and win this game.
The Chargers have been letdowns all season (0-4 ATS as underdogs), and it certainly doesn’t feel like with Stick starting that any of that will change now. Look for the Raiders, who are 4-2-1 ATS at home this year, to ultimately win a lower scoring game and (hopefully) cover that FG spread in the process.