Chiefs @ Jaguars Week 2 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 2 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
When I see these two teams matched up, all I can think about is last year’s playoff game in the Divisional Round.
Jacksonville matched up with the eventual Super Bowl champs for about a half.
Trevor Lawrence’s first-half EPA per dropback (0.04) was his ninth-best mark all season. And, armed with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, the sophomore QB tried his best against the soon-to-be MVP to no avail.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was…Mahomes.
Even after getting injured, he conjured another 111 yards and a passing score to secure the win.
It didn’t matter the Chiefs were without a prototypical WR1 and didn’t have a single explosive passing play in that game. With 15 under center, it rarely does.
But now, after taking a loss in their season opener, what was once a “David vs. Goliath” matchup at least feels a bit more evenly matched.
For Jacksonville, it shouldn’t be a surprise the offense put up its eighth-most yards in a single game since HC Doug Pederson took over. Calvin Ridley was as advertised.
He had the sixth-highest target share (34.4%) of any WR in Week 1, and he capitalized on the opportunity with 2.97 yards per route run (ninth among all WRs). But Ridley didn’t do all the work.
Zay Jones operated as the WR2 with seven targets to Ridley’s 11. Jones was the only other WR than Ridley to earn looks from Lawrence once Jacksonville got into the red zone. As the third receiver off the board in fantasy drafts, Jones has some potential as a FLEX play this week.
However, Travis Etienne may be the X factor for the Jags’ offense.
Aug 23, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) hands the ball off to running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Etienne outsnapped Tank Bigsby (25 to 10) with 69.2% of the team’s carries. With all the offseason hype for the rookie from Auburn, Etienne handled six of the seven RZ carries while earning five targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs gave the Chiefs run defense fits, as the rookie slid through defenders for 4.9 yards after contact per attempt. Between a dynamic running game and downfield threats for Lawrence, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball against Kansas City, even with Chris Jones back in the fold.
And with some uncertainty in the Chiefs’ offense, it may be enough for Jacksonville to start the season 2-0.
It all comes down to Travis Kelce’s availability on the Chiefs' side.
Mahomes was 23rd in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and posted his ninth-worst EPA per dropback (-0.05) since becoming KC’s franchise QB. And we may see a similar performance with his receiving corps (actually, “corpse” kind of works here, too).
No Chiefs’ WR eclipsed five targets or 50 receiving yards. I won’t dive more into Kadarius Toney’s night to forget, but he recorded more drops than receptions. Meanwhile, Justin Watson and Rashee Rice stood out as Mahomes's most efficient options.
If YPRR were all that mattered (it isn’t), Watson (2.81) and Rice (2.42) would be top-20 receivers ahead of Davante Adams (2.28) and A.J. Brown (2.26).
But neither ran more than 16 routes.
Collectively, the duo totaled 11 snaps in obvious passing situations.
Coincidentally, it’s an area where the Chiefs typically excelled. Last season, Mahomes converted on 52% of his attempts on third or fourth down. But against the Lions, Kansas City generated just four first downs on 12 tries (33.3%).
The magic just wasn’t there in Week 1.
But they still have a shot against the Jaguars’ defense.
Anthony Richardson worked the perimeter when facing Jacksonville in Week 1, with 73.5% of his passing yards going to outside targets (primarily to Michael Pittman). The Colts’ approach favors Justin Watson, who ran the fewest routes from the interior. But it also helps Noah Gray.
Richardson looked to TE Kylen Granson for six targets (second-most on the team). If Kelce misses another game, Gray becomes a strong TE streaming candidate for those with Kelce (or Mark Andrews) on their roster.
The backup TE tied for the most looks from Mahomes in Week 1 and ran the most routes of any pass-catcher (37). Gray’s stat line (5-31-0) isn’t as encouraging, but he did garner looks on third and fourth downs ahead of the ancillary WRs.
In a contest with a 50.5-point total, Gray has the situation and opportunity to be a viable option in Week 2.