Chiefs @ Jets Week 4 Game Preview
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the details of the Week 4 matchup between the Chiefs and Jets.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
The Jets started 2023 in glorious fashion with Aaron Rodgers running out onto the field in primetime, while holding the American flag. Since that moment almost nothing has gone right for this team.
With Rodgers (achilles) done for the year, Zach Wilson (157-0-0) is proving that he may not only be a huge bust as an NFL starting quarterback, but there is also legitimate concern he even belongs in this league as a backup. Through three games, Wilson has somehow regressed in his stats from the past two seasons, posting a 52% completion rate and 5.6 yards per attempt. Wilson threw 7 INTs in nine games last year but is already up to 4 through three weeks in 2023.
Wilson’s ineptitude caused the Jets to sign veteran Trevor Siemian this week, and while it’s too short a turnaround for Siemian to start against the Chiefs, don’t be shocked if he’s on deck for Week 5 in the Jets' game against the Broncos.
With Wilson in charge for at least one more week, it will be a prime spot for the Chiefs' defense to adhere some pressure. The Chiefs remain a blitz heavy team under DC Steve Spagnuolo, and their defensive line is 11th in pressure rate this year. While holding the Bears to just 10 points isn’t a huge feat, they also limited the Jaguars to just 9 points the week before and caused Trevor Lawrence (53% completion rate and no TDs) to post one of his worst games while under Doug Pederson.
With Wilson playing horribly and the Chiefs' defense great at applying pressure, expect the Jets to put their faith in Breece Hall (12-18, 1-9) early and often. Hall saw a bump in usage last week, playing on 48% of the snaps while taking 56.99% of the carries. While it wasn’t a pretty outing against the Patriots' elite run defense, Hall remains the Jets' most explosive ball carrier and likely their only route to producing some big plays on offense.
New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) hands the ball to running back Breece Hall (20) in the first half against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, in East Rutherford. Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
As for the Jets' other young star, WR Garrett Wilson, his usage remains elite (29% target share, 99% route participation rate) but is stuck in perennial purgatory from a production standpoint. Even if the Jets get forced into pass heavy game scripts, his QB’s ineptitude makes a big fantasy day no guarantee.
The Chiefs' offense looked markedly better last week. Patrick Mahomes (272-3-0) completed 72% of his passes and even threw a TD to Taylor Swift’s boyfriend Travis Kelce (7-69-1), adding to the list of his accomplishments in what is already a hall-of-fame career.
The Jets' defense is a huge step up in opponent in terms of matchup, but there have been holes starting to show in this elite unit. Cee Dee Lamb put up an embarrassing 11-143 line against Sauce Gardner and company in Week 3, while Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 139 yards on the ground against them last week—with Elliott producing 5.0 yards per carry.
This should be a good spot for Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (15-62-1, 2-16) who was on the injury report last week but still played the entire game for the Chiefs. He did cede some carries to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Pacheco remains the back to own for fantasy as he’s now out-touched Edwards-Helaire 10-1 in the red zone.
From a receiver perspective, last week was yet another step back for Kadarius Toney, who ended the day with one catch for -1.0 yard. Toney was dealing with a toe injury coming into Week 3, and with the game out of hand there was certainly no need to play him much.
The fact remains, he’s not likely to take a bigger role until he can A. get in a full week of practice and B. have multiple games where he doesn’t have a bad drop or fumble. Even then, there is added competition with Skyy Moore (4-42) starting to gel a little better with Mahomes. While game flow dictated a lower snap count for Moore, his target share (16%) went up for the third week in a row against Chicago.
The line in this game has hovered between 9.5 to 10.0 since open. The Chiefs admittedly haven’t been great covering big spreads under Andy Reid, but they are 18-13-0 ATS covering as away favorites since 2019. The Jets feel like they are slowly crashing under the weight of the Rodgers loss—and another lost season, in general. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Chiefs put the final nail in the coffin of the Zach Wilson experience this Sunday.