Chiefs @ Patriots Week 15 Game Preview

I feel bad for the Patriots. Well, almost.

Down their starting QB. Down their starting RB. Regardless, Ezekiel Elliott and Bailey Zappe scored more points in Week 14 than New England had in the prior three weeks combined. We even saw Bill Belichick smiling on camera a few days after the win.

Now, they face the Chiefs.

We’ve got an angry Patrick Mahomes and a Kanas City squad legitimately fighting to maintain their grip on home-field advantage during the playoffs. But storylines aside, let’s see if we can cut through the narratives and find the fantasy plays for the Chiefs.

But first, is Patrick Mahomes a must-start? 

I ask in jest, but I’m betting a fantasy manager or two might want a better option. He’s been a top-12 QB just once since Week 8. Mahomes hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards since October. However, it’s not like the structure of the Chiefs’ offense isn’t still there.

Mahomes is still slinging it like he always has. But his WR talent has been a hindrance. Kansas City has lost the fourth-most EPA due to drops on a per-play basis (-1.1). And it’s felt that way. But the silver lining is it gives us only a few options to trust with the playoffs looming in front of us.

Outside of Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice should be the only KC skill player locked into starting rosters. It took the Chiefs’ coaching staff to get there, but the rookie WR finally ran a route on 80+% of Mahomes’ dropbacks against the Bills. Rice still operates in the short area of the field (4.7 air yards per target), but with a healthy 30.0% target share in back-to-back games, he’ll be the key to the offense moving the ball against the Patriots’ defense.

But the backfield has a couple of wrinkles worth monitoring, too.

The Steelers’ RBs combined for 11.8 PPR points as receivers last Thursday, and James Cook popped the Patriots for 46 yards and a score earlier in the year. Pass-catching RBs with some wiggle have been effective against New England this season, and the Chiefs happen to have two.

With Isiah Pacheco inactive, Clyde Edwards-Helaire got the start, took 11 of the 15 RB carries and posted the fifth-highest single-game rushing success rate of any Chiefs’ RB with more than ten totes (45.5%). But, more importantly, he out-targeted Jerick McKinnon (4 to 3) despite running two fewer routes. And, even better, CEH posted the third-highest YPRR for the KC backfield.

McKinnon still got the red-zone looks and subsequent score. But, given the struggles for the WRs, rostering (and starting) CEH is a defensible move if you’re trying to stay alive in the playoffs.

But what’s not defensible is rostering all but maybe one player from the Patriots. They rank in the bottom five in almost every offensive efficiency metric and, as I mentioned, they hadn’t scored more than a touchdown in a single game throughout most of November. And with the switch at QB, it’s not like the passing volume was going to improve.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury brought Ezekiel Elliott back into our lives as a full-time starter, and the opportunity (and some Zappe magic) rewarded those who banked on volume. And by volume, I mean all of it.

• Team Rushing Share: 88.0%
• Route Rate: 78.1%
• Target Share: 30.8%

Elliott got 29 touches. Admittedly, it’s hard to turn our noses up at that many opportunities. And it’s not like Kansas City’s front is a complete shut-down unit against opposing rushing attacks.

Coincidentally, the Chiefs have allowed a top-12 rusher in three of their last four games (D’Andre Swift, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs). It’ll be tough to see Elliott scampering into the end zone again, but in PPR leagues, his combined usage as a rusher and receiver should be enough to keep him in lineups for Week 15.