Chiefs @ Eagles Super Bowl Preview

Chiefs @ Eagles Super Bowl Preview 

Well, there’s no doubt about this year’s Super Bowl. The NFL scriptwriters nailed it. Just look at all of the narratives heading into Sunday.

First and foremost, the big game will feature two black quarterbacks for the first time in NFL history. On one side, Patrick Mahomes continues to add to his legacy, while fans of Jalen Hurts squabble over his collegiate backstory. 

Meanwhile, the Kelce brothers are cracking jokes. The human element of football has brought us enough storylines to keep us occupied for the last couple of weeks. But it’s time to dig into the onfield sequences that will earn one of these teams a championship.

The Chiefs

On the Chiefs’ side, it’s all about Mahomes and how the Eagles can slow him down. 

This week’s conversation has centered on the potential OL/DL mismatch and Philadelphia’s ability to get home. Makes sense. The Eagles’ front had (an injured) Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson in hell on 13 of their combined 20 dropbacks. 

And Cincinnati got through Kansas City’s protection on 42.0% of Mahomes’ attempts in the conference matchup. But even if Philly gets through, getting him down is another issue.

Mahomes ended the regular season with the lowest pressure-to-sack rate (10.8%), and even with the ankle sprain, he’s continued to evade negative plays. So the battle isn’t solely in the trenches.

Philadelphia’s pass rush will have to work in sync with their coverage. 

Sounds simple, right? Well, let’s see how well this idea has worked over the ’22 season.

During the regular season, Mahomes was top 12 in every significant passing stat (minimum of 100 dropbacks). And naturally, he’s risen to (or close to) the top for each metric in the playoffs. 

His aDOT vaults from 5.4 to 8.6 once he feels the heat from the defense, and, per PFF’s Big Time Throw Rate, Mahomes can still generate explosives. But with a shaky receiving corps, he’ll need a reliable option outside Travis Kelce.

Throughout the playoffs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has the second-most targets when Mahomes gets pressured. He became the Chiefs’ WR1 by default after Kadarius Toney’s and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s early exits, but his 1.88 YPRR ranks third amongst all pass-catchers playing on Sunday. 

MVS has run 41.0% of his routes from the slot, which was the primary path to attacking the Eagles until Avonte Maddox  returned. 

Maddox may shore up their run defense, but Valdes-Scantling (and Mahomes) should test his deep speed if Philly’s pass rush gets through Kansas City’s offensive line.

The Eagles

The opposite has been true for the Eagles’ aerial attack. Jalen Hurts was 21st in adjusted completion percentage when pressured before his shoulder injury and, at 58.3%, ranks 8th through two playoff games. But he’s still gotten it done on the ground.

I only used designed runs here to highlight how integral Hurts’ mobility is to the offense. He’s moved the chains more often than any quarterback this season. His shoulder has hampered his ability to drive through tackles, as his forced missed tackle rate dropped from 23.6% to 11.1% in the playoffs. We see the effect in his EPA rank. But teams have used other methods to beat Kansas City’s pass rush.

Joe Burrow got rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds on 53.1% of his attempts in the AFC conference game. Throws of that type netted him over half of his first downs (7) and a touchdown to Tee Higgins. 

There’s no doubt Hurts boasts a better offensive line with two All-Pro offensive linemen in front of him. Plus, his quick game has been effective during the playoffs.

It’s a two-game sample, but Hurts ranks fourth out of the playoff passers. He has a higher adjusted completion percentage than Mahomes, with more first downs created. And while his aDOT reduces to 4.3 on these short dropback concepts, his passing options remain the same.

A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are within one route run of each other on Hurts’ attempts of five air yards or fewer. 

And collectively, they’ve hoarded 22 of his 30 attempts in this area. But Goedert has a slight edge with the most YAC of the group. 

Hayden Hurst gave the Chiefs similar troubles during the conference matchup and narrowly missed out on a score early in the game. 

If Hurts has to rely on distributing the ball quickly, expect Goedert to exploit the Chief’s coverage with all eyes on the quarterback.