Colts @ Falcons Week 16 Game Preview

Let’s run down the list of unknowns about this game real quick.

1. The Falcons don’t want Desmond Ridder (again).
2. Tyler Allgeier is apparently Atlanta’s RB1, while Bijan Robinson played the fewest snaps of the season (outside of the headache game) on Sunday.
3. Michael Pittman’s availability is up in the air after entering the concussion protocol.
4. Zack Moss is hurt but plans to play. 
5. Jonathan Taylor might be back.

It’d be one thing if both teams had nothing to play for this weekend. But, of course, the Colts are still in the hunt, and Atlanta is just one game back from tying the division lead in the NFC South. So, with a couple of fantasy stars potentially out and others in uncertain situational spots, let’s see where we can find some production for our rosters.

For Indianapolis, Gardner Minshew has been useful for fantasy. He’s been a top-12 QB in two of the last three weeks and his adjusted completion percentage has been over the league average (70.5%) in six of eight games. 

But he’s averaged 2.8 sacks per game over the last month, killing multiple drives and leaving the Colts hovering at 15th and 16th in most efficiency ranks. As a result, we’ve seen his DBOE rate start to decline.

So, with a varying pass rate, it’d be tough to start Minshew unless you were desperate, especially if Pittman can’t play. But his absence brings the ancillary WRs into the low-end WR2 discussion.

Josh Downs should be a favorite in PPR leagues. The rookie slot man was averaging seven targets per game for the first two months of the year. However, since his knee injury, it took him most of November to get back up to a 50.0% snap rate. With Alec Pierce earning a 31.8% air yard share over the last month (and generating the second-most explosives), they both have roster potential. But the Falcons defense won’t make it easy to start them.

Atlanta’s secondary is already allowing the 8th-fewest passing yards per game (199.5). But their defensive front has yet to allow a rushing score. We’ve already seen Jonathan Taylor come back from injury to work in a timeshare. Moss earned 60.0% of the carries for the first two weeks, and it wasn’t until Week 7 that Taylor wrestled away the target lead. If neither can go, Trey Sermon (who got most of his carries in garbage time) and Tyler Goodson will lead the way. If forced to choose, Goodson’s work in the rushing and passing game makes him a more viable option.

For Atlanta, Arthur Smith’s conundrum over who will be his starting QB will be the top story. But honestly, it hasn’t mattered much for fantasy purposes.

Well, except for when they get in the red zone. Ridder’s three red-zone INTs have been mind-boggling and maddening at the same time. However, the Colts’ defense should allow Smith his chance at redemption.

The Colts have allowed a 100-yard rusher or a score on the ground in all but one game since their bye. Two of the last three starting RBs to face them have wound up in the Top 12 (Derrick Henry 21-102-2, Joe Mixon 21-79-1). Usually, this type of setup would have fantasy managers with Bijan on their team thankful they made it this far. But not when Arthur Smith is still pulling the strings.

• Cordarrelle Patterson: 16.7% (Week 15 team rushing share); 15.8% (Week 15 target share)
• Allgeier: 46.7%, 5.3%
• Robinson: 23.3%, 15.8%

What a mess. 

Sunday marks two weeks in a row with Patterson earning touches from inside the 10-yard line. His snaps have oscillated from 31.3% to 17.4% to 27.5%, along with his targets (2, 0, and 2). At the same time, Robinson’s target share (20.0% to 15.8%) and carry rate (54.5% to 23.3%) has declined. He’ll still rank in the Top 16 based on projected volume, but as we’ve seen, that can disappear at a moment.