Colts @ Jaguars Week 6 Game Preview

This game feels underrated.

It’s the first divisional rematch of the season. But there’s an obvious twist. The Jaguars won’t be facing the same offense from Week 1. Anthony Richardson’s shoulder injury will keep him on the sidelines. So, in what could be poetic justice, Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville’s former starting QB, may be the one to take the Jags out of first place in the division. But it won’t be an easy task.

Trevor Lawrence had the offense humming against Buffalo on Sunday. Jacksonville ran a season-high 82 plays to stay ahead of the Bills, resulting in Lawrence cresting the 300-yard passing mark for the first time this season. Meanwhile, in the same game, Travis Etienne looked unstoppable, forcing a missed tackle on 42.3% of his carries. Their second match across the pond was emblematic of the complementary football they’ve been striving for all season. Now, they have a shot to keep the trend going in their first game back stateside.

On the Colts’ side, passing efficiency won’t be an issue with Minshew under center. In both games that he entered in relief of Richardson, Minshew averaged a higher EPA per dropback than the rookie. And he targeted the players we’re most interested in for fantasy purposes:

(w/ Minshew in W5) Michael Pittman: 25.0% (target share), 50.0% (air yard share)
Josh Downs: 25.0%, 16.7%

However, volume is a concern. In Week 3, the Colts hit a (then) season-low dropback over expectation rate of -3%. And it’s decreased each week since. Minshew only attempted nine passes in the second half as Zack Moss ran roughshod over the Titans. Let’s assume Jacksonville’s offense forces Indianapolis to take to the air. But if the game script goes awry, we have some idea of how HC Shane Steichen will respond.

Nov 20, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs the ball in the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

But the biggest question will be the backfield. Jonathan Taylor returning to just 26.1% of the carries, while Moss did his best LaDainian Tomlinson impression wasn’t what most expected. But let’s contextualize Moss’s big day:

Offensive Snap Share: (Week 5) 80.3%, (Rank Compared to Rest of Career) 1st
Team Rush Share: 69.7%, 1st
EPA per rush: 0.37, 2nd
Adjusted Yards after Contact per Rush: 6.26, 1st
Yards per Route Run: 1.67, 3rd

Moss hit career-highs in, well, almost every metric. And while I’ll stay open to the idea he’s an elite runner after a much-needed change of scenery, Taylor maintaining a meager workload doesn’t make sense. It was his first game back after being on IR and, given the offensive tendencies and the coaching staff, the run game will be a core part of their approach. Let’s give JT another week to reclaim the throne.

For Jacksonville, it was good to see their WR1 hitting WR1 thresholds from a statistical standpoint. Calvin Ridley had fantasy managers worried, but he quelled some of the concern in Week 5:

Target Share: (previous three games) 15.3%, (Week 5) 21.6%
Air Yard Share: 29.2%, 42.2%
TPRR: 15.5%, 18.6%

But Ridley’s 12.2 air yards per target invites high-variance play. He’s one of seven WRs with more than 15.0% of their team’s targets and an aDOT over 12.0. But with as often Lawrence looks his way, Ridley and Christian Kirk (who is the team’s WR1 through five weeks with a 23.9% share) should be in starting lineups.

However, folks might be wondering what to do with Evan Engram. His 20.6% target share (fifth-most among all TEs) looks great. Engram even has a higher route run rate than George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and T.J. Hockenson. But when it comes to earning high-value touches, which are critical to TE scoring, Engram has yet to have an end zone attempt thrown his way. Until this changes, waiver wire options (Logan Thomas, Dalton Schultz) may be the better source of fantasy production at TE.