Colts @ Panthers Week 9 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller breaks down the Week 9 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers
The Colts travel to Carolina to take on a Panthers team that just got their first win of the season on a walk-off field goal.
Indianapolis has been one of the most fun teams to watch in recent weeks, as they have averaged nearly 70 plays per game on offense and have allowed 37+ points in three straight games.
Carolina’s offense has been one of the least efficient in both the run and pass games, but the Browns and Saints managed to hang 39 and 38 points on this Colts' defense, so there is a chance we see the Panthers' best offensive output of the season on Sunday.
Vegas kind of agrees, as this game has a 44-point total which is the fourth-highest of the week. That is more of an indictment on the quality of matchups this week, but it does make this a bit of a sneaky matchup to target in DFS contests.
The Colts rank 27th in situation-neutral pass rate and may not be forced to throw all that much against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in rush EPA allowed per play. Jonathan Taylor managers will be hoping this is the true breakout week, but Zack Moss continues to pull usage away, handling at least 47% of team rush attempts in every game since Taylor returned.
There was some concern that Taylor’s limited workload in the second half of last week was due to injury, but that doesn’t seem to be the case, and he should be a full go this weekend.
Taylor checks in as a top-10 fantasy RB in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks, so he should be locked into lineups and will likely be popular in DFS and Battle Royale contests.
The Colts pass offense continues to concentrate around Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, who have combined to see just under 50% of the team’s total targets this season.
The Panthers will look to build on their first win of the season, especially considering they have no incentive to lose without their first-round pick next year.
Carolina has only topped 20 points in three games this season and has been one of the least fantasy-relevant offenses outside of Adam Thielen. That trend will likely continue this week as Thielen checks in as the WR10 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks, by far the highest rank among Panthers players.
Both D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo ran more than 95% of routes in Week 8, so if the Panthers offense does get it going, one of them will likely deliver a fantasy-relevant performance. I’ve got my eye on Mingo, who seems to be ascending within the offense and is a good stash in redraft leagues if you need WR help down the stretch.
In the backfield, Chuba Hubbard has taken over and received more than 70% of the team rush attempts in each of the Panthers' last two games. He is on the RB2/FLEX borderline against a Colts defense that has given up plenty of points to opposing RBs.
The Colts are three-point road favorites and likely have too much firepower for the Panthers to keep up, but I am open to the idea that we see Carolina’s best offensive output of the season this week. If you think the pieces are starting to fall in place around Bryce Young, the Panthers +3 seems like a nice bet.