Commanders @ Rams Week 15 Game Preview

It’s easy to see how this game can fly under the radar.

At least three games in the early window on Sunday are either divisional matches or feature high-end fantasy talent. The Cowboys-Bills game kicks off 20 minutes after the start of this contest. And we’ve got ‘Lamar Jackson vs Trevor Lawrence’ as the Sunday nightcap. 

See? The schedule is a distraction. But we’ve got plenty of fantasy plays on both sides. Let’s start with the Commanders.

At 4-9, Washington is already looking to 2024. However, taking the long view still requires a close look at their personnel. And a change in the team’s outlook may explain their drop in passing over their last few games.

Through the first ten weeks of the season, Sam Howell had a 7.0% dropback over expectation rate. He was at 0.0% (meaning he’s passing as much as he should, given the game situation) over the three games before they entered their bye. Meanwhile, play-action and RPO rates have gone up to keep the offense moving. However, despite the Commanders not passing as often as they should, Howell still averaged 37.3 attempts per game in Weeks 11 through 13. And given LA’s defensive weaknesses, it’d make sense if OC Eric Bienemy came out of the bye with a pass-happy approach.

Surprisingly, more targets aren’t necessarily a good thing in this offense. Terry McLaurin’s 19.3% share leads the pass-catchers, and no other receiver has an air yard share over 25.0%. But he doesn’t have a 100-yard game all year. He got three targets for zero yards in his last game. And Jahan Dotson has tried to field just one downfield shot. With the fantasy playoffs on the line, both are tough to trust. But Howell’s WR3 is worth a start in the flex.

Despite a 48.6% route rate, Curtis Samuel has earned five or more targets in his last three games. And Howell has primarily looked Samuel’s way when pressured. After seeing Zay Flowers smoke the Rams’ DBs from the slot just this past week, there’s a path for Samuel to rack up more touches for fantasy managers in PPR leagues.

For LA, Matthew Stafford is only distributing the ball to three fantasy-relevant players. And, honestly, it makes our decision points easy. With a narrow target tree, there’s no need to roster guys like Ben Skowronek. Plus, the passing game volume isn’t enough to support more options anyway.

Let’s give credit where it’s due. Sean McVay still knows how to dial up a potent offensive game plan. Against the Browns, LA hit a season-high in plays per minute but still had a balanced approach in terms of their passing rate. But in Week 14, in the Baltimore rain, Stafford’s play-action rate ticked up to maintain offensive efficiency despite fewer dropbacks. However, the offense shouldn’t have the same defensive concerns on Sunday.

Since the trade deadline, where Washington lost two starters on their line, the Commanders rank 31st in pressure rate. And their run defense has performed similarly. Opposing RBs have finished in the Top 12 every week. Kyren Williams will be everyone’s favorite RB play. But the WRs should also get some love.

Cooper Kupp maintained the target share lead over Puka Nacua for the second consecutive week. But the larger point is that Kupp capitalized on his opportunity for his first 100-yard game since Week 6. The volume kept fantasy managers believing, but if the efficiency is back, Kupp should stay locked in our starting rosters without any hesitation.