Cowboys @ 49ers Divisional Game Preview
Home field advantage and superior coaching make the 49ers the more likely team to win, but Cowboys shouldn't be underestimated and could pull off an upset.
Cowboys at 49ers
The final game of the Divisional Round features the winners of the two biggest blowouts from Wild Card weekend. The 49ers overcame a solid first half performance from the Seahawks and ultimately went on to win by 18 points behind a strong showing from rookie QB Brock Purdy. The Cowboys manhandled the Buccaneers and cruised to a 31-14 victory while looking like one of the more polished offenses in the league.
This game has the lowest total (46.5 points) and the closest line (SF -4.0) of the entire weekend. It speaks to the strong defenses and relatively even talent across these two rosters. In fact, these two teams have the best turnover differentials in the NFL this season and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game come out ahead.
The San Francisco offense has made the most of Christian McCaffrey’s versatile skill set since he joined the team midseason. Unsurprisingly, they have been one of the most run-heavy teams this season and should have some success against a Dallas defense that plays a bend-but-don’t-break style against the run. The Cowboys defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed to opposing RBs, but is tied for the second fewest rushing TDs allowed.
In the passing game, Purdy has been extremely efficient, but not quite prolific. His 8.5 YPA (yards per attempt) is an elite number but he has only topped 250 passing yards in two of his games this season. However, he has been able to support a number of fantasy-viable pass catchers because he has thrown for at least two TDs in every game started.
With Deebo Samuel back to full health, the San Francisco offense should be hitting on all cylinders, which is a scary proposition for the rest of the league. The pecking order seems to be Samuel, George Kittle, then Brandon Aiyuk, but each of them has the opportunity to lead the team in a given week due to their ability to create explosive plays.
On the Cowboys’ side, Dak Prescott played arguably his best game of the season in the Wild Card round and a similar performance would give the Cowboys an excellent chance of advancing. They may need to rely on the passing game this week too, considering they are going up against the league’s toughest rush defense. San Francisco was the only team to not allow 1,000 rushing yards to opposing RBs during the regular season and will make things difficult on Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot.
Dalton Schultz was the primary beneficiary of Prescott’s big game against the Buccaneers, as he posted his second multi-TD game in the past three weeks. While Schultz will continue to be featured in the red zone, CeeDee Lamb still projects as the top pass catcher in this offense and the WR4 on the week in the Fantasy Life consensus rankings.
The Cowboys have been discounted as contenders for much of this season due to their up-and-down play and historical lack of playoff success. However, this is a very talented roster that shouldn’t be underestimated. If they are able to force a couple mistakes from Purdy, that could be enough to pull off the upset.
Ultimately, home field advantage and superior coaching make the 49ers the more likely team to win, but it is far from a sure thing. The spread has been widening throughout the week, which suggests the public is on the San Francisco side, and I look forward to finding out if that is the right call or not.